With the completion of the NFL regular season, the suitors of February’s greatest prize have been thinned from 32 to 12.
As with last season, there is no clear standout amongst these remaining contenders, as each team carries question marks over their legitimacy.
It’s time to examine each remaining team, and consider why they won’t win the 2013 Super Bowl, starting with the American Football Conference (AFC).
Denver Broncos
This iteration of the Denver Broncos carries the strongest favouritism of any team in this year’s field, with elite production in every phase of the game.
The first of two concerning factors hanging over this team is the lack of quality opposition they have faced this season. Football Outsiders ranks the quality of the units the Broncos’ offence and defence have faced as 31st and 26th respectively.
Dominating performances over a weak schedule have provided the Broncos with the top seed in the AFC, but this soft run also leaves them open to an upset down the track.
This brings us to the other worrying element: Peyton Manning. Whilst Manning is the greatest quarterback of his generation, he has been prone to let-downs in the post-season. While at the Colts, Manning regularly led sides who stormed through the regular season, only to get the wobbles in January.
Manning hasn’t displayed any such vulnerability since winning a ring, but the possibility of regression always remains, especially as Mile High Stadium gets colder through the winter (adverse weather has often been touted as a weakness for the dome-bound Manning).
New England Patriots
The standard knock against the Patriots is that their unreliable defence costs them key games. Despite the strong improvements made at all levels of the Patriots’ defensive unit, the truth is this isn’t what will make the difference.
The Patriots’ losses tend not to be shootouts (where you would expect a poor defense to be the difference), as these games play into the hands of the hurry-up king Tom Brady. Rather, the Pats seem to struggle in low-scoring, ugly affairs (see their last two Super Bowl appearances).
Over the last two seasons (when the current iteration of the Patriots offence has been used), the team is 7-5 in games where they score less than 30 points, and 18-2 when they score more.
This team’s best chances come when they run up the score: a task that grows ever more difficult as the playoffs wear along.
Houston Texans
The Texans’ biggest problems seem to revolve around a lack of flexibility.
When they can generate consistent yardage through running back Arian Foster, and consequently force teams to honour their play action game, they’re hard to beat.
But as soon as that first down option starts to peter out, the whole offensive system seems to evaporate. Matt Schaub has repeatedly struggled to produce the goods when the running game can’t kick-start the offense.
These problems also seem to have a knock-on effect on the defensive side of the ball, which has struggled to maintain its discipline in close games.
Against the Green Bay Packers and Patriots (two blowout losses against contenders), the Texans’ defence struggled to get off the field due to costly penalties.
Baltimore Ravens
Every season the NFL teaches us that momentum is extremely important coming into the playoffs; a lesson that should worry the Ravens.
This team has limped into the playoffs by winning only one of its final five matches and haven’t beaten a significant foe since their home win against the Cowboys in week six.
Head coach John Harbaugh opted to rest a number of key starters in their final match of the season, as it had little impact on their playoff seeding. Whilst this may provide a more energetic group of players against the Colts this weekend, it’s a tactic that has regularly proven disastrous over past seasons.
Regaining confidence and momentum over the next month presents a huge challenge for a Ravens team that has struggled for stability (having recently fired offensive co-ordinator Cam Cameron) since September.
Cincinatti Bengals
The simple concern for the Bengals is what they can hang their hat on.
Aside from a fearsome pass-rush, no other facet of this team is strong enough to lay the foundations for a game plan, leading to the inconsistent production they’ve experienced all season.
Their offence is ranked 22nd in total yards produced, split into 17th and 18th respectively when divided into passing and rushing totals.
At some point in the post-season a team needs to know that they can give the ball to a unit, or a single player, and rely on them to get the job done. It’s difficult to see where the Bengals can turn for this sort of dependability.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are undoubtedly the story of the 2012 NFL season. But the truth is, their record has flattered them.
An extraordinary number of their wins came on the back of improbable comebacks, and some frankly lucky (sorry, terrible pun) plays from their rookie quarterback.
At some point, the glitter that surrounds this team will fade (although teams with this sort of feel-good aura tend to run deep into the postseason), and they’ll have to buckle up.
This brings us to the seventh worst defence in the league, when ranked by total yardage allowed.
Although many teams with poor defences have enjoyed playoff success recently, they all had elite performers on the other side of the ball (New England, Green Bay, New York, New Orleans).
Although Andrew Luck and Vick Ballard have enjoyed enormous rookie seasons, the lack of experience on this side of the ball suggests the Colts could struggle once the blowtorch of playoff football is applied.
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