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Each week of the NFL season, I place my handicap tips based on mismatches between opposing teams. The Super Bowl is no different to any other game, with the identification of mismatches being the key to unlocking value on game day.
Matchup 1: Ravens have a poor record versus balanced/run-based offences, but dominate pass heavy teams
During the year, the Ravens went four wins and five losses versus teams that had a balance or run based offense. Drilling deeper, the four wins came against the Giants (pass heavy game), Kansas City (very close win over a team that every one beat), Pittsburgh (no Big Ben) and Cincinnati (ok fine they can have this one).
The Ravens however are 9-1 versus pass heavy teams and if you include a win over Eli Manning and exclude the Denver loss they are 10-0. Versus Denver, the Broncos ran 167 yards and only passed for 200.
They ran an intentionally balanced O and controlled this game and won easily.
Therefore, in reality the Ravens are one win and six losses versus balanced/run-based teams and 10 wins and 0 losses versus pass-heavy teams
The 49ers are a very balanced unit who run the ball well and have a dual threat quarterback who runs out of the pocket when the play dissolves. I expect the Ravens poor laterally moving D to have a very hard time containing the legs of the 49ers run offense.
Mismatch Advantage: 49ers
Matchup two: 49ers strong record versus pass heavy teams
The 49ers went 8-0 versus pass heavy teams, including playoff wins over Atlanta and Green Bay. They also beat New England, New Orleans, Detroit and Green Bay in the regular season.
The 49ers boast the fourth-ranked pass defence, however they do have a deficiency against the deep strike.
Alternatively, the 49ers went 5-4 versus balanced / run based offenses. The 49ers were however top five in rush defence for the NFL.
When analysing the losses, they can all be somewhat forgiven, with losses to playoff teams Seattle and Minnesota, coupled with non-disgraceful losses to the Rams and Giants.
In the regular season, the Ravens looked average at best and limped into the finals on the back of an average balanced offense. However, in the playoffs their passing game has exploded with their quarterback putting up some huge numbers.
Mismatch Advantage: 49ers
Matchup 3: Huge special team advantage to the Ravens
The 49ers have kicking woes and the Ravens have a sound kicker. This will not help the 49ers when in FG range or looking to close out the game.
The 49ers have one of the worst kick return coverage units in the NFL, averaging around 27 yards per kick return. The Ravens have one of the strongest kick return units, averaging 27 return yards per game.
When coupled, the Ravens may have a very strong return game. I would suggest that the 49ers kick plenty out and force the Ravens to touch back, as they did last week versus the Falcons.
Mismatch Advantage: Ravens
Matchup 4: Coaching and Experience
Brother versus Brother in the coaching stakes and the 49ers have the younger, more inexperienced coach. The Ravens also have a Super Bowl title and have been here before.
Coaching in general is level and players have sound playoff experience, but only the Ravens players and their coach have been to a Super Bowl and won.
Mismatch Advantage: Ravens
Matchup 5: Travel and Mental Fatigue
The Ravens have played two very emotional games, both away. They travelled up the mountain to Denver and beat the Broncos in a dramatic OT win.
Then they had to travel to Foxborough and beat the Patriots in a very emotional win also. They have retiring players and while motivation has got them here, it will only add to the pressure on game day and will not help them lift the trophy.
The 49ers have played in relative travel ease and should be fit and ready for this game.
Mismatch Advantage: 49ers
Matchup 6: Super Bowl venue
The Super Bowl is in a dome and the 49ers have just played their most recent game inside, at Atlanta. They also played and won inside at New Orleans dome on November 25th.
The Ravens have not played in a dome since October and will not be used to these conditions. The conditions are quicker and firmer under foot and this will not help them laterally to defend the quick moving 49ers running backs and versatile quarterback. Also the Ravens are 1-1 in dome matches this season.
Mismatch Advantage: 49ers
Game Summary
The 49ers run defence will force the Ravens to throw the ball. While the 49ers have susceptibility to the deep ball (not passing in general), having a strong run D versus avg run O of the Ravens, the 49ers will be well setup for the deep strike.
When the Ravens are forced to pass the ball, Mismatch 1 will come into play and aid the 49ers and force the total over.
The 49ers should have their way with the Ravens defence on the ground. The Ravens will lock down the air routes and their poor lateral moving defenders on the quick surface will bring Mismatch 2 into play and aid the 49ers and force the total over.
The 49ers will neutralise the Ravens special teams by kicking the ball out and going for it on fourth and close. This will aid the game total over by pushing the ball up the field or forcing a turnover on the fourth down.
Overall, it looks like Super Bowl XLVII is headed San Francisco way.
Game Prediction
Game Line: 49ers -3
Game Total: Over 47
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