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SMITHY: Breaking down your NRL team’s chances in 2013 (Pt 3)

The Canberra Raiders host the Melbourne Storm in what has historically been a close contest. (AAP Image/Action Photographics, Renee McKay)
Expert
8th March, 2013
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1090 Reads

Following on from Thursday’s examination of your team’s chances, here is part three of the look at the prospects of the Raiders, Warriors, Broncos and Panthers.

RAIDERS
MYTHS – not so far back, many feared that Campese’s influence was paramount for Raider success. It took them quite a while but I think that was put to bed at the back end of 2012.

ROOKIE TO THE RESCUE – wow, take your pick here. What a programme and production line the Raiders have. Wighton, Williams, McIlwrick, Lee, Matoroa, Papali, Fenson have all cracked via junior reps to NRL route at Raiders. More to come.

WHAT CAN STOP THE TRAIN – centre of the ruck defence. There is a distinct lack of mobility with too many of the same type at times in their middle men part of the roster. Quick or skilful opponents can rip them too easily on their worst days

WHY THEY CAN WIN IT! – another young team that could really grow with the confidence that comes from winning and knowing why! And with enormous youthful depth it, could be a long term revival when it starts if they find the key.

WHAT I REALLY LIKE ABOUT THEM! – the momentum they can develop through the variety they can play with, especially in the kicking game aspects. Campese can add to this. Look out opposing wingers and fullbacks.

RATING – let’s see how consistent they are in the first month or so. In the same vein as a few other clubs the poor performance days of this club would be best identified from within. There were too many of them again in 2012 leading to erratic form. It may not be identification of the problem, it might be doing what ever it takes to remove it that matters.

WARRIORS
MYTHS – “the team making the fewest errors will win today”. Don’t you wish you had a dollar for every pre-match expert spruiking this one at you!? I reckon the Warriors are much more likely to win with this group if they create more chances, remove the focus of what might happen if errors are created, and go for it.

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ROOKIE TO THE RESCUE – like the Raiders, this is a smorgasbord! Perhaps a small criticism could be that for all that abundant young talent, not enough have graduated to NRL success. That could be because of recruitment focus on bringing in tradesmen like Aussies over recent seasons or an area of the development process neglected in toughening up with tighter preparation methods.

WHAT CAN STOP THE TRAIN – lots of pressure on Coach Elliott I feel to come up with the right balance in many aspects – preparation style of relaxed and loose versus mental discipline and toughening up for the weekly battle, attacking with a play what you see or percentage mind set, selection of team based around the previous points will generate much discussion within the club and also for the rest of us. Matty smiles a lot. If he loses that, the train might have already stopped.

WHY THEY CAN WIN IT (or at least have successful year) – if they decide Matty has the right plan and they all decide to do it together this crew could go ahead really fast. An abundance of youthful talent as per Raiders could add great enthusiasm and competition for spots.

WHAT I REALLY LIKE ABOUT THEM – another team with great attacking variety based around the composite skills that so many individuals bring. Deciding if and when and how and where and how many times they utilise those skills is the balancing act. Feleti Mateo is a key and great example. He appeared to be much fitter and more disciplined but still confident and willing to have a crack in 2012.

Rating – improving all aspects of a 2012 team that lost its way is important. Where they have focused might be obvious after a few weeks. Is the development of this squad a 2 or more year plan ? My personal feel would be in year one lets score in the high 20s or more to win games rather than attempt to keep their opponents to less than 14. The defensive percentage minded stuff can wait for year 2 and beyond. Having said that I feel Warriors staff will need to quickly address the tackling and general defensive skills of many of the youngsters in their squad – starting with half back Johnson.

PANTHERS
MYTHS – as per Eels, rapid improvement can’t happen in the NRL. In the past decade there are many examples of teams jumping from the foot to near top of table in a SINGLE season.

ROOKIE TO THE RESCUE – Jennings! No, not Michael, who went through the much used exit door, but younger brother George. George will start this season in NYC, but don’t be surprised if he sneaks into NRL reckoning at some stage.

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WHAT CAN STOP THE TRAIN – developing some edge defenders good enough to protect Luke Walsh’s defensive responsibilities, which was continual problem in 2012. Also ,the blending of so many new players from so many different clubs into a unified team is some challenge. This wholesale change was likely a forced hand move by Coach Cleary and one I can relate to from my time in Newcastle. When too much money is going into too few players’ pockets, steps need to be taken. If that financial basis has also led to a cultural dependency and general apathy and resentment, those steps need to be radical. But it can be the first and most important steps in rejuvenation.

WHY THEY CAN WIN IT (or at least have a successful season) – many of the players coming in are under-rated and would appear to be hungry for success:Lewis Brown, Manu, Naiqama, Whare and Segayaro all likely contributors.

WHAT I REALLY LIKE ABOUT THEM – Kevin Kingston as captain. I have never coached him or even spoken to him, but anyone I have spoken to tells me of his personal attitude and his absolute desire for the team to do well. This may be the most significant move the Panthers bosses made since the disappointments of 2012.

RATINGS – hard to see the Panthers in the big games at end of season but I also remember the subtraction factor being just as vital to the additions made. As good as some of those guys who have left were, perhaps it was a stale environment and now it’s bright. They may surprise a few tipping them for the bottom.

BRISBANE
MYTHS – “we need to sign the coach up to offer stability to our club”. Geez, it all went pear shaped for the Broncs not long after the man batting second after Bradman was re-signed. Maybe there were other factors.

ROOKIE TO THE RESCUE – Broncos have been through this phase in recent seasons, producing some great young backs in particular. They probably don’t want too many more in this team at present.

WHAT CAN STOP THE TRAIN – it appears that a very strong stance by the coaching and admin on professional standards to rectify some long standing behaviours took its toll on season 2012. That was the case for some individuals moved on or overlooked. It also seemed to disrupt the flow of the team as well. Long term effect should be positive, but if lessons are not learned, and there is more of that to come, it could get real rocky in the stable.

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WHY THEY CAN WIN IT (or at least have a successful season) – if Scott Prince can find his best form, he may release others to play their own games at their best. Some of coach Griffin’s comments at his signing suggested he wanted improvement of what he had seen of Prince in recent times. Me, too! Another team with a youthful base that could really grow if the Ws come early on.

WHAT I REALLY LIKE ABOUT THEM – they have tremendous competitors in lots of positions but have lost iconic players in back to back seasons. Filling the shoes of leadership is always interesting to watch in sport. When Cronin and Price left the Eels even the great Sterling and Ella and Kenny could not keep the blue and golds on top. Lets see what the young Broncos and coaches can do.

RATING – I honestly haven’t got a clue how Brisbane will do this season. And how they start may not even resemble how they finish.

WESTS TIGERS
MYTHS – if the players have stopped listening its easier to remove the man at the top than the player roster. So if or when they don’t listen to the next top guy when results haven’tchanged, you still got the same problem!

ROOKIE TO THE RESCUE – Tedesco at full back looked hot in NYC and in trials in NRL before season ender in 2012. As did Sironen on occasions in his small bits. My bolter is Nofoaluma – one very strong young dude with dynamite carries in yardage from the wing on kick returns and dummy half.

WHAT CAN STOP THE TRAIN – this is the biggest clash of cultures I have seen since WB took over from Nathan Brown. sheen sky’s unique style and systems is just about as far away from Mick P’s get the basics right as you can possibly get in coaching. Also are Benji and Robbie entering the age where injuries start to take a toll?

WHY THEY CAN WIN IT (or at least have a successful season) – hard to see the former or even the latter unless there is a total commitment to Coach Potter’s disciplined regimented percentage method to victory and his ability to get them to perform week to week in this previously foreign style to this playing roster.

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WHAT I REALLY LIKE ABOUT THEM – watching a group undergo such a makeover will be so interesting. If they get it and score some early Ws it will be thrilling to see of they can sustain it week in week (always the most physically and mentally challenging of styles to maintain for the flamboyant and young).

RATING – a real mystery bag for 2013. Just so difficult to see the big three leaders (Marshall/Farah/Anasta) pulling their horns in to play patient and powerful rather than creative and play what you see style attack. All three also would need total defensive makeover and with so many young guys likely to be playing plenty games and minutes team defence looks like it might need a team scoring high twenties or more regularly to win. Can they get those points playing this style of attack?

NEWCASTLE
MYTHS – local products feel more and play harder for this regionally proud club. Queensland coach and players, sprinklings of Kiwis and Polynesians including star Fijian winger, and sundry other ex-NRL club converts will be giving it everything after last seasons disappointments.

ROOKIE TO THE RESCUE – another team full of veterans ready to go so we are not likely to see youngsters being tried in 2103. Korbin Sims and Mitchell Frei are giant young import back rowers who might break in for a bench spot.

WHAT CAN STOP THE TRAIN – not much at the start of the season. I am predicting this crew will be set for a ferocious start to this season. An awesome pack with buckets of experience might find the distance race that the NRL always is a problem later on. Injuries have plagued a lot of the key players also -Gidley/Buderus//Mullen/Smith/Costigan/ Fa’alogo/Quinn/Scott. Too many errors in possession by Gidley and Buderus will need to be rectified quickly or it will undermine the possession and attrition battle the Knights will be relying on weekly.

WHY THEY CAN WIN IT (or at least have a successful season) – if they get that great start and few injuries they might just get that old home record started up and be tough to beat every week every where.

WHAT I REALLY LIKE ABOUT THEM – Wayne B has assembled another tough experienced forward pack as he did at Dragons and some good yardage making backs (Uate/McManus/Gagai/Gidley) as well to play the percentage and field position style the Drags won a premiership with.

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RATING – I can see them making the playoffs if they get a good first month start and no serious injury run. I can also see them running out of muscle and getting out sped and out skilled by teams with a smart plan and the necessary physical to dish it back to them. They will smash Tigers in their first outing if the Tigers start off trying to out do them in the percentages and field position battle. Tigers may get back to win if the old instincts and score board cuts in to make them play their natural game.

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