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If recent history is anything to go by, fans can expect one hell of a match when Hawthorn and Geelong meet at the MCG on Easter Monday.
Three of the last four games between these modern-day rivals have been decided by less than a goal. Two by just two points.
When they last met in round 19, 2012, the game was won off the boot of Tom Hawkins when he bombed the winning goal from outside fifty to clinch a stunning after-the-siren victory against a heavily favoured Hawthorn outfit.
However, as much as recent history promises theatre when these teams meet, it also indicates that Geelong should be the likely victor.
Despite the quality of contest, and the wealth of results that suggest these rivals are well matched, Hawthorn have failed to seal a victory against Geelong since they enjoyed premiership glory in 2008.
So can Geelong continue their impressive winning streak? Or will the Hawks finally break a hoodoo that has been a thorn in their side for nearly half a decade?
Bookmakers are once again backing Hawthorn to break the drought against Geelong. But until this formidable streak is broken, it seems like victory to the odds-on favourite should be considered an upset.
Although time has passed, and grand final redemption has been achieved, the 2008 premiership loss still echoes at Geelong, and to this day that faint echo fuels their excessive desire and extraordinary ability to ensure Hawthorn don’t taste victory at their hand.
Excluding Steve Johnson, who will miss the game through suspension (and injury), Geelong has selected 10 players that experienced the 2008 grand final loss first hand.
Again, based on recent history, we can be certain that each of these players will bring with them the same strength and tenacity from which they have forged their current winning streak over the Hawks.
In the lead up to the match there is little doubt that the winning streak will surface in the minds of Hawthorn – and will surely rear its head if the game is tight and tense nearing the final siren.
Hawthorn certainly has the physical ability and skill to beat any team, including Geelong – something they will undoubtedly display throughout the year.
But on Monday afternoon, it will not so much be their physical but their mental ability that will be brought to the fore.
On Thursday night we witnessed another formidable winning streak come to an end, when Richmond held on by less than a kick over Carlton.
In the final quarter of this match we saw Richmond almost succumb to recent history – in the end, they were probably lucky to get away with the win.
It would not be surprising if the dynamic of Thursday’s game is mirrored closely in Monday’s.
At the start of the final quarter, if Geelong has even a sniff at victory, we can be sure their confidence will outweigh their opponent’s.
Hawthorn’s mental strength will be on full show at this point. The outcome is difficult to predict.
As fans we can only hope that once again it comes down to less than a kick.
One of the beauties of sport are the anomalies; the unjustifiable, unpredictable scenarios that emerge to be defining.
The 2008 grand final has defined the modern rivalry between these two clubs, and no one can deny that the story that has unfolded since has been little short of remarkable.
The only question now is: how long can history linger, and remain crucial a factor?
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