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It seems every man and his dog have an opinion on whether the Australian Rugby Union should allow or encourage George Smith to play against the British and Irish Lions in June and July.
For every view that says Smith is a ‘must have’, there’s another that says the Wallabies will still be well served in David Pocock’s absence with the young guns, Liam Gill and Michael Hooper.
Certainly, Hooper did very well in the gold no.7 last year, and Gill similarly impressed plenty on the Spring Tour to Europe. Neither would let anyone down in 2013.
On the subject of Smith playing, you may well have noticed that I’ve remained somewhat quiet.
It’s not because I don’t have an opinion, it’s just that until the situation changes concerning his loan deal from Suntory, and until the ARU declare that he is eligible for selection – which they may not do, even if Smith’s Brumbies contract is extended – it’s all a pointless debate.
I have to say that some of the commentary and self-justification being used around the whole eligibility thing has been staggering for its arrogance.
Suggestions that ‘the ARU should just tell Suntory’ anything has been mind-blowing for its false importance and entitlement.
Remember, in all of this, Suntory owe Australian rugby no obligation whatsoever. They’d be well entitled to request Smith’s return at the end of the three months as was initially agreed.
Regardless, Smith or no Smith, ploughing through some numbers over the weekend tells me that the Wallabies will still be well served in the openside department.
Particularly, if we go by the numbers, we find that there really isn’t a lot between the three likely no.7 options, even if one of them remains only a hypothetical option at this stage.
In terms of attack, Gill, Hooper, and Smith are all making around seven runs per 80 minutes played, and around 37 metres for those seven runs. The young bucks are only managing one offload every third game, whereas Smith is getting nearly two offloads away every match.
For the sake of the exercise, I included David Pocock in my number-crunching, and this confirmed suspicions that he was being eased into proceedings in 2013, and that he doesn’t have the same running game of his counterparts. Pocock made fewer than six runs for 18 metres per 80 minutes, and with just the one offload.
Gill has a slight edge in terms of the number of rucks and mauls he attends, with his seven per 80 minutes leading Smith’s six and around five-and-a-half for Hooper.
Interestingly, none of the opensides are having much luck in the turnover and pilfer department this season, and that’s quite likely a reflection on the new breakdown interpretations favouring the attacking side.
Rugby Stats lists Smith’s four pilfers as equal second in Super Rugby, while Gill’s three has him equal fifth along with Reds team-mate Anthony Fainga’a and Rebels scrumhalf, Nick Phipps, would you believe.
The Chiefs’ no.7, Sam Cane, heads the list on six, and even that is just over one per game. Pocock hadn’t managed one turnover in 2013 by the time his knee buckled under him.
Where Gill holds a clear advantage is that he’s currently conceded only two penalties for the year, whereas Smith and Hooper are both pushing nearly one per game.
Though I would suggest Gill could find a less conspicuously colour headgear than his chosen white if he wants to remain out of the referees’ sight.
Hooper and Gill are both making more than 14 tackles per 80 minutes to Smith’s 11, but Hooper lets himself down massively by missing more than 17% of all tackles attempted. Smith and Gill are missing either side of one tackle per 80 minutes to Hooper’s three.
Rugby Stats has Hooper missing more tackles than any other player in Super Rugby this season. To provide some degree of context to that, Quade Cooper doesn’t feature in their top 20.
There’s certainly a lot of romance around George Smith’s comeback to Super Rugby, and the numbers clearly show that he’s more than holding his own with the young guns.
Claims of him being the form no.7 in Australia already are always going to be subjective though, and I can’t help but wonder if they’re there simply because all eyes are on him and him only.
However, for all that romance, the speed and intensity of Super Rugby might have just caught up with the great man. His general involvement against the Bulls on Saturday night quite minimal, save for the number of passes he gave at first receiver (something I think he’s always overdone).
The travel back from South Africa had an effect on the Brumbies as a whole, and perhaps it slowed Smith more than all others.
Hooper, similarly, seems to be taking his time finding his feet in a new team under a new coach.
Like Smith on Saturday, I couldn’t believe how quiet Hooper was on Sunday afternoon against the Force. I noticed numerous times that Hooper looked to be off the pace. I wonder if he might be carrying injury or having some fitness concerns at the moment.
That leaves Gill. It surprised me just how close Gill and Hooper’s attacking numbers were, considering the perception exists that Hooper is more of a running player.
The fact that Gill runs just as much, for similar metres gained, and with similar offloading ability makes the ‘more rounded game’ pro-Gill argument difficult to counter; more so when you add his lineout ability to the mix (though I ignored kicks, for everyone’s benefit).
For mine, the fact that he hits more rucks, gives away less penalties, and misses fewer tackles is what puts Gill at the head of the Wallaby no.7 queue.
Yes, Smith would provide experience and ‘game smarts’ that Gill just won’t possess at 20 years of age, but if you put Gill in with the right back five candidates, that experience can come from other areas.
A Wallaby back five of, say, Timani, Horwill, McMeniman, Gill, and Palu if fit (or Mowen if not), is going to provide that perfect blend of size, skill, mobility, and a good degree of experience, too.
And five lineout jumpers.
And they all happen to be in decent form.
It’d be wonderful to have George Smith taking on the Lions, don’t get me wrong, but right under our noses we have a young punk openside who is already well on the way to possessing that same perfectly rounded game that Smith is so lauded for.
The Wallabies won’t be let down by playing Liam Gill in the Australian no.7 jersey. As it stands now he’s the best and fittest eligible openside in Australia and I honestly believe we’re doing him a massive disservice focussing on hypotheticals.