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Preview of AFL Round 8 matches (all times AEST):
FRIDAY, May 17
West Coast v North Melbourne at Subiaco 8.40pm
Head to Head: Eagles 23 North Melbourne 19
Last clash: Finals Week 1 2012 – Eagles 24.18 (162) bt Kangaroos 9.12 (66) at Subiaco
Sportsbet: Eagles $1.35 Kangaroos $3.20
Both finals contenders are hitting their straps and their seasons are following remarkably similar patterns. Both have three wins and four losses. The 10th-placed Eagles have scored 744 points and conceded 661, the 12th-placed Roos have 752 points for and 687 against. North average 148.1 contested possessions a game and the Eagles average 148; West Coast average 45 hit outs a match and North 45. In this case, stats don’t lie and a truly even contest awaits.
Key: North ruckman Todd Goldstein has the second-most hit outs this year but will need to, at worst, break even with imposing Eagles Dean Cox and Nic Naitanui for the Roos to spring a win. The return of rover Daniel Kerr will also boost the Eagles in midfield.
Tip: Eagles by 20 points
SATURDAY, May 18
Essendon v Brisbane at Etihad Stadium 1.45pm
Head to Head: Bombers 22 Lions 15 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 6 2012 – Bombers 19.15 (129) bt Lions 9.8 (62) at Etihad Stadium
Sportsbet: Bombers $1.03 Lions $12.00
Essendon’s bubble was burst by Geelong last start while Brisbane’s gallant loss to West Coast hasn’t kept the wolves from the door of coach Michael Voss, who realises a 2-5 win-loss record does nothing for his job security. The Bombers are the competition’s highest scorers and top the league for generating inside 50s. If that trend continues, the Lions’ leaky defence will be overwhelmed.
Key: Brisbane captain Jonathan Brown must wind back the clock to his halcyon days and boot a bag of goals for his side to have any chance.
Tip: Bombers by 60 points
Hawthorn v Greater Western Sydney Giants at Aurora Stadium 2.10pm
Head to Head: Hawks 1 Giants 0
Last clash: Round 15 2012 – Hawks 28.25 (193) bt Giants 4.7 (31) at MCG
Sportsbet: Hawks $1.01 Giants $16.00
If struggling Adelaide can belt GWS by 135 points, what will flag fancies Hawthorn do to them? Last year, the Hawks thrashed the Giants by 162 points and only Tasmanian rain and wind can save the Giants from another whopping loss – but the forecast is for a fine day. Veteran coach Kevin Sheedy will need to pull a rabbit from the hat for the winless Giants to compete, let alone get close to a Hawthorn side which blitzed reigning premiers Sydney last weekend.
Key: By his lofty standards, Hawks star Lance Franklin has been quiet this season with only 18 goals. But it’s conceivable he’ll reach double-figures in this game alone.
Tip: Hawks by 140 points
Gold Coast Suns v Western Bulldogs at Gold Coast Stadium 4.40pm
Head to Head: Suns 0 Bulldogs 3
Last clash: Round 8 2012 – Bulldogs 9.18 (72) bt Suns 4.10 (34) at TIO Stadium
Sportsbet: Suns $1.60 Bulldogs $2.35
Gold Coast are only percentage out of the top eight, with three wins and four losses offering genuine hope. The same can’t readily be said about the struggling Bulldogs, who are battling hard but don’t have the talent to challenge most sides. The Dogs’ effort continues to be undone by poor skills – they have the worst disposal efficiency in the league. The Suns are seeking consecutive wins for the first time in their history and, on home turf, are favoured to achieve the feat.
Key: Liam Picken is likely to get the toughest gig in footy: tagging Gary Ablett. If he can restrict the Suns champion, the Dogs are a chance.
Tip: Suns by 10 points
Sydney v Fremantle at SCG 7.40pm
Head to Head: Swans 14 Dockers 11
Last clash: Round 2 2012 – Swans 14.10 (94) bt Dockers 12.9 (81) at SCG
Sportsbet: Swans $1.33 Dockers $3.35
The jury remains out on the fifth-placed Swans and the sixth-placed Dockers. Both are considered finals certainties, but can either challenge for the flag? Fremantle accounted for Collingwood to bank their third win in a row while Sydney were flogged in their loss to Hawthorn last start, prompting Jude Bolton to declare their effort as soft.
Key: How do Freo cope without their injured ruckmen Jon Griffin and Aaron Sandilands? Against a team who average more hit outs a game than any other side, the duo’s absence looms as decisive, as the Swans regain premiership ruckman Shane Mumford.
Tip: Swans by 20 points
Collingwood v Geelong at MCG 7.40pm
Head to Head: Magpies 128 Cats 95 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 16 2012 – Magpies 17.8 (110) bt Cats 10.19 (79) at MCG
Sportsbet: Magpies $3.20 Cats $1.35
The modern-day heavyweights clash with contrasting recent fortunes. Geelong are the only unbeaten team yet still remain last in the league for winning clearances. Collingwood appear trapped in a yo-yo season with even their coach Nathan Buckley uncertain just how good they are. Injured midfielder Dale Thomas is out but Luke Ball returns following a knee reconstruction, while the Cats regain Joel Corey and Josh Hunt. One thing is for sure: given their heated rivalry, Geelong will be primed to dish out a beating.
Key: Magpie forward Travis Cloke, who has taken more marks inside the attacking 50m arc than any other player, must fire for Collingwood to have any chance of an upset.
Tip: Cats by 42 points
SUNDAY, May 19
Carlton v Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium 1.10pm
Head to Head: Blues 9 Power 13 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 10 2012 – Power 14.15 (99) bt Blues 6.9 (45) at AAMI Stadium
Sportsbet: Blues $1.32 Power $3.40
Carlton are 11th and Port fourth, yet ask most pundits who is the better side and the answer will be the Blues. Port, the early-season bolters, have come back to earth with consecutive losses which have led to their coach Ken Hinkley appealing for greater defensive efforts. Carlton’s season has been stop-start due to injuries and suspensions and they enter this game disadvantaged by having two days’ less rest than the Power.
Key: Port’s prime mover Hamish Hartlett must break the shackles – in the Power’s two losses, he has been tagged heavily and gathered just seven and 10 disposals respectively.
Tip: Blues by 18 points
Richmond v Melbourne at MCG 3.20pm
Head to Head: Tigers 102 Demons 79 drawn 2
Last clash: Round 15 2012 – Tigers 13.23 (101) bt Demons 11.12 (78) at MCG
Sportsbet: Tigers $1.01 Demons $16.00
Tigers coach Damien Hardwick knows his side is on the right path, while his Melbourne counterpart Mark Neeld is going around the bend. Neeld’s tenure continues to be questioned as he struggles to find on-field answers. Melbourne are the lowest scorers, have the least disposals, and the fewest contested possessions in the league. And they’re notoriously slow starters, a key fact against a Tiger outfit which has won six of their seven opening quarters this year.
Key: Richmond spearhead Jack Riewoldt will have a field day if his star-studded midfield, led by skipper Trent Cotchin who returns from injury, gains their expected ascendancy over the Demons.
Tip: Tigers by 80 points
Adelaide v St Kilda at AAMI Stadium 4.40pm
Head to Head: Crows 19 Saints 15 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 12 2012 – Crows 17.13 (115) bt Saints 16.15 (111) at AAMI Stadium
Sportsbet: Crows $1.28 Saints $3.70
Adelaide are yet to prove their credentials with all their three wins against lowly clubs – Brisbane, Western Bulldogs and Greater Western Sydney. St Kilda’s last start victory against Carlton was full of merit, but even then they battled to put away an injury-depleted opponent. The Crows appear to have the midfield edge with Patrick Dangerfield emerging as a genuine game-breaker.
Key: Crow defender Daniel Talia will be given first crack at trying to stop Saint star Nick Riewoldt, who is enjoying a purple patch in form. If Talia succeeds, Adelaide will win.
Tip: Crows by 24 points
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