The halfway mark of the season – well Round 12 of 23 anyway – is a poignant moment for footy fans to reflect on what has been and what is to come.
How bleak or rosy was the first half of the year, and can things improve to ensure you get to cheer in September?
Right now it’s all hypotheticals and guess work. Who knows how some teams will fire or flop in the second half of the year. Right now everyone is talking about Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and possibly Fremantle and Essendon being the main contenders.
Others say don’t write off Collingwood, Mick Malthouse can get Carlton going come September and, of course, almost everyone would like to see the Tigers play finals again.
There is your eight, your current eight. But what about West Coast, they’ve won five of their last six, sit ninth, and are poised to make a run?
Port? The Crows? The luckless Kangaroos? Could Gold Coast win enough games to sneak into the finals?
Your guess is as good, perhaps better, than mine.
What I do know is you need to go way back to 1998 to find the last team to make the grand final having been outside the top eight after Round 12.
It was 15 years ago that heading into Round 13, North Melbourne were seventh, and would go on to finish on top and reach the grand final. Adelaide were 10th, snuck up to fifth, and went on to win the flag – still the only team to do so from outside the top four since the current finals format came in.
Port were eighth in 2007 after Round 12 and went on to reach the grand final, only to be embarrassed by Geelong.
In recent years after 12 rounds: Sydney were fourth, Hawthorn fifth in 2012, Collingwood and Geelong were 1-2 in 2011, Collingwood and St Kilda were 2-3 in 2010, St Kilda and Geelong were 1-2 in 2009 and Geelong and Hawthorn were 1-2 in 2008.
Historic statistics, I know, and just because it happened then, doesn’t mean it will now.
So instead let’s have a quick look at what lies ahead for every club.
Adelaide sit 11th with 10 games to play, and six of those are against teams currently above them on the ladder. It will be tough.
Brisbane are 15th and have 11 games remaining. They play all three teams below them so their wooden spoon destiny is in their hands.
Carlton are eighth with 10 to go. They don’t play the top two teams, Geelong and Hawthorn, but do play the other five teams above them right now. If they make it, they will have earned it.
Collingwood are sixth with 10 games left. They play Hawthorn, Sydney, and Essendon who are above them, and also have games against finals hopefuls Carlton and West Coast. The eight beckons, maybe not the top four though.
Essendon are third with 10 games to go. They play Hawthorn, plus Collingwood, Richmond and Carlton and West Coast twice. A top-four spot will need plenty of great results.
Fremantle are fifth with 11 games to play. They only play Geelong above them, have tough games against Carlton, West Coast and Richmond, but also play St Kilda (16th) twice, GWS (18th) and Melbourne (17th). Top four here we come.
GWS are last with 10 to play. While they could snare a surprise win, it may all comes down to their August 4 game against Melbourne.
Geelong are second with 11 to go. They face Fremantle and Hawthorn in coming weeks, and Sydney in Round 22. They get Brisbane twice, St Kilda and Melbourne on the run home. Top four again.
Gold Coast are 12th with 10 to go. They have potentially winnable games against GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Brisbane. Win them all and that’s 10 wins. Great, but not enough.
Hawthorn are first with 10 games remaining. They still have Geelong to come plus a final round game against Sydney, and tough matches with Collingwood, Essendon and Richmond. Top four, but will they finish top two?
Melbourne are 17th with 11 to go. They have games they could win, against the Bulldogs twice, St Kilda, Brisbane and the Suns, but really the one they are looking at is Round 19 against GWS.
North Melbourne are 13th with 11 remaining. They play seven of the current top eight teams. If they get there, they will surely deserve it.
Port Adelaide are 10th with 11 to play. Their next four weeks will be huge. They play Sydney, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn. They also get Geelong, Fremantle and Carlton later. Sorry.
Richmond sit seventh with 11 to go. Their next four weeks can set up their finals’ run. They have the Bulldogs, St Kilda, North and the Suns. They will also meet Fremantle, Sydney, and Hawthorn but have GWS and Brisbane as well on the way home. Finals here come the Tigers… surely?
St Kilda are 16th with 11 remaining. They play Melbourne and Brisbane, but also play seven games against teams currently in the eight.
Sydney are fourth with 11 to go. They finish the regular season with Geelong and Hawthorn, but only play three others now in the eight. The Swans get Melbourne, GWS, St Kilda and the Dogs. Top four for them, maybe top two and a good chance to defend their title.
West Coast are ninth with 11 to go. Their next five weeks are massive with Hawthorn, Essendon, Sydney and Fremantle coming in that time. They will also get Essendon again, plus Collingwood and Geelong. It will be very tough.
Western Bulldogs are 14th with 11 to play. They have winnable games against Brisbane, Melbourne twice and GWS. They won’t run last but won’t make the finals either.
So, where does that leave us? Well, peering into the crystal ball, taking a punt, having a guess – all those things, and I’m going to say, status quo. The eight we have now, will be there at the end of Round 23.
See, simple!
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Andrew Pridham with the drive-by!
How could you, Hughesy!
A few weeks ago, I dubbed Carlton and Geelong as the premiership frontrunners - at a time when they sat, respectively, fourth and first…
An innocuous incident - but any trouble for the Chad?
Safe to say Hodgey was fighting a lone battle with this take!
