The FIBA Oceania Championship will be played on the 14th of August in Auckland and the 18th of August in Canberra.
This is part one, focusing on the mens championships. Part two, which focuses on the womens matches, will be published later in the week.
Another blockbuster international basketball test series is on our hands – wait, I’ve lost everyone. Let me rephrase in a manner fit for prime time TV:
MILLS! ABERCROMBIE! HIGH OCTANE BASKETBALL! TWO MATCHES, ONE WINNER! THE FIBA CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES!!!
The FIBA Oceania Championship series consists of two double-headers, to determine seedings for the men, and qualification for the women, into the newly created FIBA Basketball World Cup and World Championship respectively.
Generational change
Both the Boomers and the Tall Blacks are using this series to blood new talent for the future.
Notably missing for the Boomers is Andrew Bogut, who would at least be a co-headliner with Mills on the marquee.
However, in international play in recent years, Bogut’’s production has largely been matched by David Andersen, the standout European centre of the last decade or so.
While Andersen was not nearly as successful in the NBA as Bogut has been, the slower pace and heavier use of team defence helps hide Andersen’s defensive deficiencies in the international game.
Additionally, Andersen having a jump shot helps the flow of the Australian offence by spreading teams with less mobile big men.
Andersen can also provide offence in the post, however he isn’t quite as good at facilitating as Bogut.
Personally (and I’m sure a lot of people will disagree with me), I prefer Andersen in the Boomers team, at least offensively, as compared to Bogut he helps stretch the floor on offence for a team that has streaky outside shooting and spacing issues.
Joining Andersen in the frontcourt will be San Antonio big man Aron Baynes (who was co-incidentally born in New Zealand), New Mexico Lobo Cameron Bairstow, Kings centre AJ Oglivy and Crocs giant Luke Nevill.
Baristow, Oglivy and Nevill have all recently gone through the college system at strong D1 colleges, with Bairstow still left with two years of eligibility at the Lobos.
Baynes is coming off an extremely strong Summer League appearance with the Spurs, where he was probably the second best big man in attendance (behind Raptor Jonas Valančiūnas).
Baynes should chew up most of the minutes up front, but expect the other three to get decent looks behind the starters.
Baynes will help anchor a defence that is prone to gambling, and he has come a long way with his positioning during his brief time in San Antonio.
Apart from Andersen, all five are quite young and have the Boomers faced firmly towards not only Rio in 2016 but also the 2020 Olympics.
Notable absences include Brock Motum, Nathan Jawai, Ater Majok and Aleks Maric, and all four should be feeling nervous for places in the run to the World Cup and Rio.
Further complicating matters for these four is the imminent return of Bogut and the development of talented 16-year-old Thon Maker, who is yet to commit to Australia but, if he does, may be in the mix for Rio.
Logjam at the point
Australia’’s recent riches in developing point guards have left it with a great problem – three international quality playmakers pushing for one spot.
Patty Mills, Matthew Dellavedova and Dante Exum could all claim spots for most teams lining up at next year’’s Basketball World Cup and are all under 25 years old.
Even with former number one draft pick Kyrie Irving choosing the US national team over Australia, the Boomers certainly don’t lack talent in the backcourt.
Brett Brown started both Dellavedova and Mills in the Olympics, with Dellavedova playing more two than one, and Mills being the main creator and weapon.
Dellavedova has the size to guard most two at international level, and while not hyper-athletic, can keep up with all but the fastest of players on D.
Playing for the Cavs in Summer League, Dellavedova split time on and off the ball, however his size dictates that when he’s out there with Mills, he will be a twp (at least on D).
Mills is also a little more dangerous with the ball in his hands, and when given free reign is a scorer par excellence on the international stage.
It’s not hard to imagine the two splitting responsibility on offence, with Mills driving the break and some quick pick and rolls, and deferring to Dellavedova in more structured half court sets.
The Exum factor
Dante Exum is the major X-factor. Fresh from a stellar campaign at the U-19 World Championships, he is a big point guard who can act as a facilitator with the ball, or find his shot off the ball.
Exum’s speed going to the hoop is amazing, and he shows a great ability to improvise while driving to the hoop.
This sounds like over-the-top praise, but if you have a spare few minutes you should watch his highlights from both the Nike Hoops Summit and the World U19 quarterfinals against Spain.
Until halftime, Exum had eight points and a handful of other stats.
After halftime, Exum exploded for 25 points, blowing the strong Spanish team out of the water. It was a phenomenal performance by a phenomenal young player.
After the game, DraftExpress’s Jonathon Givony had moved Exum up to the projected third spot for the 2014 NBA Draft, if he chooses to declare.
Exum’s talent demands minutes now. He is perhaps Australia’s best young talent ever; even more promising than Bogut and Mills, and close to matching a young Kyrie Irving.
At 6’6″, he is big enough to cover twos and maybe some small forwards on D, but needs to fill out a little bit more to compete against larger bodies.
Exum operated well off the ball at the Nike Hoop Summit, with Germany’s Dennis Schröder playing more point guard.
Exum shows the ability to adapt to playing off the ball, and making the most of his opportunities when he gets them.
One major concern about Exum’s playing time is the injury he carried through the U19 World Championships, but if he’s been named in this squad you would expect that he will compete for a spot.
The question is whether to go with a three guard (or even three point guard) backcourt either from the start or off the bench.
Doing so would give Australia a uniquely dynamic attack, with all three points being able to attack the hoop with unquestionable ability.
All three have looked comfortable in the past working off the ball, and have ability in catch-and-shoot situations.
Ultimately, I don’t think new coach Andrej Lemanis will go in this direction for the starting five, with the recent form of Joe ’Jingles’ Ingles (who has been carving it up in Israel) commanding minutes.
But as a change of pace which would throw NZ completely off track, and going ’ultra-small’ might be a good experiment to try.
At the very least I doubt there will be many times where two of Mills, Exum and Dellavedova aren’t out there together.
This emergence has hurt the hopes of Brad Newley of getting extended stretches on the floor. Newley should be still be in line to back ‘Jingles’ up, and get some minutes at the two in ’tall’ lineups.
The final roster spots will be a tough battle between Ryan Broekhoff, Adam Gibson, Anthony Petrie, David Barlow, Ben Simmons and perhaps a couple the names mentioned above (Ogilvy, Bairstow and Exum if he’s deemed not ready).
If I were Lemanis and picking the team for this series, I’d want to use the chance to blood some young talent for the future, which would mean picking giving an opportunity to promising high schooler Ben Simmons, and recent Valparaiso University grad Broekhoff.
Simmons is considered one of the top talents in the 1996 draft class, and Broekhoff has come off a solid college career and is worth a look at this level. Both would provide the Boomers with extra depth at the wings.
The slightly smaller Blacks
Without being rude, the Tall Blacks are not as strong as they have been in the past.
Led by recent Summer League participant Tom Abercrombie, the Tall Blacks are coming off some average form against some middling teams during their China tour, going down to provincial and lower international teams.
Mika Vukona will give their frontline a lot of fight, but at 6’6″ should be overpowered by the big Australian front line.
Corey Webster is another that provides a lot of promise, however outside of those established three players, the Kiwis lack international experience.
Compounding these problems is the injury suffered in China to Abercrombie, whom New Zealand cannot afford to have miss much time.
This tournament should be a good learning experience for the Kiwi squad to develop players with an eye for Rio, as the ’golden generation’ of Kiwi basketball looks to have ended.
Names like Reuben Te Rangi, Alex Pledger, Jack Salt, Brook Ruscoe and Jordan Ngatai will, if chosen in the final squad, get much-needed international experience at this tournament.
One name to watch for the future, but who will not be playing, is Steven Adams. Adams is the recent number 12 draft pick in the NBA draft and after a patchy Summer League, could have gained some solid experience against NBA-calibre bigs.
Adams is extremely raw, but boasts the attributes to be able to lead the Tall Blacks for the next decade.
Conclusion
Perhaps the Tall Blacks will surprise, perhaps they can catch a napping Boomers outfit coming out of the gates. Given the talent of the Boomers from top to bottom, I don’’t think this will happen.
If the Kiwis can keep the margin of each game within single digits, they will be doing well. If Abercrombie is fit, look for him to provide a lot of offence, and to audition for his next job.
On paper Australia should sweep the series, however it must always be remembered that games are not played on paper.
Cody Atkinson is a former failed basketball player whose career highlight is getting dunked on by a guy cut from an NBA Summer League Team. He writes in a lot of places about a lot of things.
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