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The long awaited opening match of the Rugby Championship kicks off this evening with the All Blacks facing the Wallabies in Sydney, doubling also as the Bledisloe Cup opener. We’ll have live scores and commentary from 8.00pm AEST.
The first thing noticeable about this match is there is no Dan Carter, no Quade Cooper and no James O’Connor at ten.
Instead Matt Toomua will debut against Aaron Cruden – could there be a more interesting talking point than these two?
After a very solid and reliable performance by Matt Toomua this season for the Brumbies, it must have been a very hard choice for Ewen McKenzie to leave his trusted Reds’ ten out of the starting XV.
Due to an injury to Dan Carter, Hansen has decided on the youthful exuberance of Cruden.
Cruden is a player who has proven his tactical kicking has improved by leaps and bounds this season, his ability to find the gaps and put his support runners into space has been a hallmark of his play this season.
The Wallabies will depend on the consistency of Toomua to provide quality ball out wide from Will Genia, who will most likely be the head decision-maker and controller, whereas Cruden will take the responsibility of the All Blacks back line.
Comparing the two front rows you have New Zealand with a settled seasoned front row to the experimental one of Australia.
Rounding up the tight five with Sam Whitelock and Luke Romano provides the All Blacks with heaps of mobility and grunt, James Horwill and Rob Simmons may be a tad light on the physical stakes, so I give a slight advantage to New Zealand.
A very experienced back row of Kieran Read and Richie McCaw is partnering Steven Luatua, so ball carrying will be of the highest order.
Ben Mowen and Michael Hooper are partnered by Hugh McMeniman who has a lot to prove, again I give the advantage to New Zealand.
I don’t think there is much to choose between the Genia and Toomua vs the Smith and Cruden halfback pairings, so let’s call that evens.
In the midfield Conrad Smith is partnering Ma’a Nonu vs Christian Lealiifano and Adam Ashley-Cooper, although the Australian midfield is less experienced with Lealiifano, I think the only stand out difference is the manner in which Conrad Smith can organise his attack.
So after a long think perhaps a slight edge in attack to New Zealand.
In the back three James O’Connor is back where I believe he belongs, with Jesse Mogg and Israel Folau they will be a serious threat out wide and from deep, comparing the New Zealand back three of Israel Dagg, Ben smith and Julian Savea it is pretty much anyone’s guess.
This is a difficult call to make, Australia at home, new coach, new attitude and a new zest for life, the Aussies will be looking forward to this match.
Their hope will be that this match is the beginning of a new era, one where parity can be gained over their biggest rival after a very lean decade.
The All Blacks will be intent on thwarting any thought of a Phoenix rising from the dead and will want to ensure that any new hope or aspiration of the Wallabies, be quashed immediately.
If I must make a call, I would say New Zealand by the narrowest of margins.
[roargal]
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.