- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Have Hawthorn released the shackles after dispensing with the Kennett Curse, or did we once again see them go perilously close to choking on the big stage?
For the third year in a row, we saw the Hawks kick more behinds than goals in a preliminary final, and their fans need no reminding of having five more scoring shots than the Swans in last season’s grand final loss.
Will Fremantle be overawed by the occasion of their first time playing on the last Saturday in September, or are they riding the crest of a wave of momentum as the best performed finalists in 2013?
Certainly, the Dockers have on their side a number of historical and statistical factors.
In the last 17 years, only five times has the team that finished on top of the ladder gone on to claim the premiership, a trend the Hawks couldn’t defy last year, and will be attempting to this time around.
The last four times the best defence from the home-and-away season was matched up with the best attack in a grand final, the defensive unit has held sway by an average of seven goals.
It is worth pointing out all of these were non-Victorian sides beating Victorian.
In fact, since the AFL’s inception in 1990, 11 times we’ve seen a Victorian side take on an interstate side in the last match of the year, and eight of those have gone the way of the visitors.
Is there a hint contained within that the harsh glare of grand final week in Melbourne is too much for the home side to bear?
The key to beating Hawthorn is being able to shut down their time and space, pressuring the ball carrier and allowing them as few uncontested marks as possible.
Fremantle are fanatical in each of these areas, and won’t allow the Hawks the freedom of playing the game on their own terms.
Aaron Sandilands has returned from injury in excellent form, and will allow the likes of Michael Barlow, David Mundy and the irrepressible Nat Fyfe first use of the ball.
Sam Mitchell is the key prime mover for the Hawks, a fact that had apparently escaped Chris Scott and the Geelong players on Friday night.
The amount of space he was given at stoppages and around the ground was criminal, a luxury he won’t be afforded this Saturday.
He is so important to Hawthorn’s fortunes that if Ryan Crowley, who must surely get the job, can limit his influence, it will be the decisive factor in guaranteeing Fremantle’s victory.
Hawthorn has the best forward line in the league, led by the height and versatility of Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin and David Hale.
The Dockers are well equipped to handle them though, with Luke McPharlin, Michael Johnson and Zac Dawson the best trio of tall defenders around.
Fremantle have got an array of forward options, led by Matthew Pavlich and Chris Mayne as the key targets, complemented by Michael Walters and Hayden Ballantyne.
Their midfielders are also constantly hitting the scoreboard, providing a multi-faceted threat.
Mayne laid 13 tackles against the Swans, followed by Ballantyne with eight.
When the forwards apply that much pressure, it’s difficult for backmen to remain poised and to deliver with composure. If the Hawks break down in this area, they won’t be able to overcome the Dockers.
This Fremantle line-up bats deeper than St Kilda did under Ross Lyon in their grand final years of 2009-10, yet Hawthorn are probably not the equal of the victorious Geelong and Collingwood in those seasons.
Lyon was able to push two great teams and almost pinch a flag or two, but the talent-to-talent equation is arguably more favourable for him this time.
History is on Fremantle’s side, and the Hawks are still susceptible to choking under finals pressure, with the gameplan of the former tailor-made to shut down the latter.
Dockers by 17 points.