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New NBL chief Fraser Neill believes the league can double its number of teams from the current eight within five years.
Neill told Fairfax’s Roy Ward this week: “I don’t see why we can’t double these teams in the next five years and be the only sport to have teams across the whole country – that’s my ambition.”
“But we wouldn’t be reckless; any team in this league has to be sustainable for the long term.”
So what do we make of these comments?
Well, a little bit of expansion talk can be seen as good.
Returning Brisbane and adding second teams in Melbourne and New Zealand should be of reasonably high priority.
However, doubling the size of the league is another matter entirely.
Now, Neill seems to be a smart man. He was formerly CEO of NSW Rugby Union and before that had the gig of IRB tournament director.
The latter role saw him oversee the establishment of the Sevens World Series.
His resume makes for comforting reading to the typical local hoops fan.
But overambitious expansion talk could not be less comforting to the typical local hoops fan. That’s because they’ve heard it all before.
People in Neill’s position in the past have offered similar expansion-based rhetoric and it’s led to a whole lot of not much.
Even when they deliver – as Rick Burton did with expansion to Asia – it’s short lived and we’re back to where we started, if not further back.
To get an idea of what’s at stake you only have to look at recent history.
The most recent NBL expansion team successful enough to still be around? That would be the New Zealand Breakers, set up in 2003.
The number of teams established from 2003 onwards that are now dead? That’d be four – Hunter Pirates, Singapore Slingers, South Dragons and Gold Coast Blaze.
Think about that. Is it really wise for a league with this track record to go down the path of rapid expansion?
We haven’t even got into the failed teams pre-2003.
It was nice to hear Neill emphasise that teams would have to be sustainable for the long term, but such ideals have been compromised before.
Besides, eight new teams in five years does not lend itself to high levels of due diligence – at least not at an organisation like the NBL, where resources in recent times have apparently been so scarce a proper marketing campaign could not be arranged to give the season launch a boost.
Then there’s the talent pool to be considered.
So many new roster spots would spread the best talent wider, leaving it obvious to fans that a drop in the quality of games has occurred.
To be fair, Neill’s intention could’ve been to make a big statement in the hope of prompting some action from potential investors for a smaller-scale expansion.
And that may well be the case.
When you do the sums, we know Brisbane needs to be brought back ASAP. Both Wellington and Christchurch could be the second New Zealand team, so eventually someone at NBL HQ is going to ask, “Why can’t we have both?”
A revival of a former Melbourne franchise is something should clearly be on the agenda.
Without thinking, that’s 12 teams. And you would ideally like those teams sooner rather than later.
There’s a bit of an issue re-emerging up in Townsville with some poor early crowds. But if the worst case scenario was to play out there, there’s still three regional markets the three summer-based domestic sports aren’t capitalising on – Geelong, Canberra and the Gold Coast – with the nation’s capital looming as a tempting option.
So it seems no matter how things play out with the existing teams, 12 is the number the NBL should be (and potentially is) striving for. Particularly if the talent pool question can be alleviated by a shift to three imports.
Still, five years – given it is absolutely imperative these new teams can buck the recent trend – is a bit generous. It can’t be forgotten that every time a team falls over it creates a huge negative perception around the entire league.
Also, the familiar rhetoric of years gone by needs to be toned back. One of the risks of the de-merger over winter, which returned 50 per cent control to club owners, was that things would be run the way they were the last time owners were in control.
The NBL should be projecting an image that suggests it’s learnt from its mistakes, not that it’s making them all over again.
At least Fraser is prepared to think big. We must give him that.
At least expansion is being put firmly back on the agenda, too.
But yeah, let’s put this 16 teams stuff away for a while.