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I am not one for crystal-ball-gazing in usual circumstances but after analysing the 16 NRL clubs, some things appear more likely than I can ever remember.
It looks highly likely to me the Roosters will again win the premiership. With all the key components still in place and the whole squad in the right age bracket – 22 to 29 – it’s all systems go for Sydney.
To read more Brian Smith on league, check out his website, SmithySpeaks
Manly look the pick of the other clubs again too. Their hard core of experience has added two more proven performers under pressure in their halves of Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans.
Admittedly skinny as a squad – having lost five NRL-standard forwards doesn’t help – they are probably more vulnerable than most other clubs to a run of injuries.
But they just seem to be able to integrate youngsters and former rejects into that winning culture.
Likewise Melbourne (third)!
The Storm squad is increasingly looking shallower, but if Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater play the majority of the season they still look better than a heap of other clubs.
The forwards with development possibilities will need to do that – Jesse and Kenneath Bromwich, Tohu Harris, Jordan McLean, Kevin Proctor and George Rose.
I am looking forward to what big George Rose can do in purple. He will add some offloads and humour, that’s for sure.
Top four again for me.
The contenders for the other spot in that group are Souths (fourth) and North Queensland (fifth).
In fact these are the two biggest potential threats to the Roosters. They have the physical power, if they can harness it, to meet the Roosters front-on and beat them.
Doing it regularly is the issue for the Cowboys and has been for some seasons, while doing it regularly but not at season’s end in the big games is the Rabbits’ issue.
New Cowboys coach Paul Green has had a low-key arrival and pre-season, the perfect kind for the rookie coach. The work he has done with his sometimes lacklustre forward pack will be eagerly watched as the weeks unfold.
Those powerhouse North Queensland front rowers should lead the way but developing a dummy half with skill and threat has been lacking for some time and is the number one need for their team attack to become more effective.
There are just a few unhealthy signs coming out of the Rabbits at present but perhaps they won’t create big problems.
The most obvious is Sam Burgess’ departure but there are also some rumours of other players checking out the market, which could lead to unrest.
If they can sort that stuff, stay healthy and add some footy to their arsenal they could contend on grand final day.
John Sutton’s role in that last point excites me. I loved what he did for the team’s attack in the Charity Shield demolition of the Dragons and can’t wait to see where this team’s attacking plan takes them in 2014.
The Bulldogs (sixth) were all over the place last season on and off the field. A more settled build-up will be just what coach Des Hasler wanted but he will need to sort out the fullback spot ASAP. Sam Perrett isn’t the answer but I am not sure what other options might be better.
Top eight and maybe better if fullback is sorted successfully. Will they have a new plan for their attack, which many clubs figured out how to handle in 2013?
Newcastle (seventh) and Cronulla (eighth) look like the best of the rest and likely top eight.
The Knights are expecting the most successful coach in history to lead them to a premiership but it might just be a playoff spot with a brittle and ageing roster.
The Sharks may be anticipating difficulties because of their coaching situation – will coach Shane Flanagan be able to resume or remain suspended? Interim coach Peter Sharp has the right attitude to that awkward position and has the coaching intelligence and experience to make it easier than it might be for the players.
Another top eight for the Sharks but they will run last if the ASADA issue blows up. If it doesn’t, the questioning by ASADA will be reversed I am sure.
The rest of the positions don’t really matter – you either make the top eight or you are getting ready to make it next season.
The Tigers and Titans are expecting different results without great positive change to their playing rosters. That improvement may happen but can they get enough to trouble those top spots?
They seem to have both fallen in love with their young halves. The Titans’ pair showed promise but there is not enough happening up front or at the ruck to get the team regularly in a position for the youngsters to have a chance to deliver the goods.
Any club hanging its hat on its youngest players, as the Tigers appear to be, has failure coming right around the next corner – and a brutal collision it always is.
The Eels and Raiders have gone to the coaching ranks for improvement to their poor 2013 seasons, with both coaches returning to their ‘home’ clubs.
I like the look of what Parramatta coach Brad Arthur has said publicly and the decisions he has made so far – except not including Chris Sandow in the NRL to start the season.
The Dragons have identified problems with and then recruited halves – Gareth Widdop and Sam Williams. The Broncos identified point-scoring as their issue, so added Ben Barba.
Are these ‘good gets’ for two very high-profile and winning-cultured clubs? The players may be the right ones but have they identified the right issues?
The mystery bags for me are the Warriors and Penrith. Both have also gone to recruitment of players to spark their success, although with different methods.
The Warriors have gone to the top shelf, in price anyway. Sam Tomkins has done it all in Super League but can he be the catalyst for a club with issues in defence and consistency?
If he and Shaun Johnson connect they could set fire to the Warriors attack and if the team improves its defence they could really shock opponents.
The Panthers have continued the extensive rebuild of the whole roster – Peter Wallace and Jamie Soward in the halves, Jamal Idris and Kevin Naiqama in the backs, the very experienced Brent Kite up front and Tyrone Peachey and Elijah Taylor in the back row. How many are left from former coach Matt Elliott’s time?
These two clubs could be the surprises of the season, sneaking into the top eight, but could also finish in the bottom four. Quality coaching will be needed to get the quick success likely to be demanded of both.
All of these clubs predicted for outside the eight will know every season some club shocks the league. High-quality coaching, a united push from all within the club (before they know the positive result is on the cards) and a good old-fashioned dose of good luck make all the difference.
Who is your shock contender?
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