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This time of year some like to sit on the fence. For the purposes of this column, however, we’re going to do the opposite. This is the fearless AFL preview, where being bold is the name of the game.
1. One of the ‘big three’ will crash and burn
Everyone’s top three seems to feature the same teams – Hawthorn, Fremantle and the Sydney Swans – in some order. And you can certainly understand why.
Sydney got Buddy! Hawthorn don’t need Buddy! Freo will be hungry for redemption!
But one of these narratives is going to fall apart, because one of these three clubs will miss the top four.
That’s right. Everyone’s top three will not be the eventual top three.
Exactly which team will drop remains to be seen, but each of the three have certain question marks surrounding them.
Gaining Lance Franklin coincided with Sydney losing Shane Mumford, Jesse White, Jed Lamb and Andrejs Everitt – all players who had at least 12 appearances last year – on top the retirements of Jude Bolton, Marty Mattner and Mitch Morton.
That’s one high turnover rate.
The Hawks didn’t have an ideal off-season either, with Franklin’s exit coinciding with retirements to Max Bailey and Brent Guerra – although Ben McEvoy is a great pick-up.
Hawthorn, however, have a low nine players under 21 on their list, and of those only Bradley Hill has played more than 10 games, so they have even more questions over just who is going to step up.
Plus, they’ll have to play Geelong, Fremantle, Collingwood and the Swans twice. Good luck with that.
And while we’re on fixtures, no side’s draw has changed for the worse more than Fremantle’s. Last year they played just one eventual finalist twice – Richmond – and had repeat dates with Melbourne and St Kilda.
This year, they don’t have a repeat match-up with any side that won less than nine games in 2013, and obviously have to play their grand final opponents Hawthorn twice. They’re also starting the year with one of the longest injury lists in the league.
You can understand where everyone’s coming from with all three. They deserve to be talked up. But there are enough issues spread across them that it’s hard to see all of them fitting neatly into the space they’ve been allotted, especially not when you consider the improvement due from teams that didn’t make the top four last year.
Richmond have improvement in them, which is ominous for a 15-win team. West Coast and Adelaide have good cases for jumping back into the eight, with the Eagles deserving of being considered a top-four chance. Collingwood are hard to get a read on, but most accept they aren’t going away.
Then there’s this other mob …
2. North Melbourne will be minor premiers
Let us count the number of boxes North Melbourne are ticking heading into this season.
1. The fixture has offered them plenty of relief.
The teams they played twice last year won 71 games between them. The teams they play twice this year won a mere 48 games in 2013. Basically, instead of playing Hawthorn and Collingwood twice, they now play the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne twice. Happy days.
2. They picked up Nick Dal Santo.
We all know what Nicky Dal brings to the table, and he’ll bring it while simultaneously taking pressure away from the host of up-and-coming mids in North’s ranks.
But more generally, if your trade week involves picking up a top midfielder while giving up nothing of serious note you’ve done very, very well. That’s what North did.
3. The football department has been bolstered.
Renowned assistant Leigh Tudor is now on board, along with Gavin Brown. Geoff Walsh is now head of football. Cameron Ling has been doing some consulting work. North have long had the excuse of being under-resourced, but it’s a lot harder to play that card this year.
4. Last year, for all its negatives, should have a positive effect on this year.
There should be no such thing as complacency at North this year after finishing 10th, and the players should have accumulated a fair list of lessons learnt after breaking down so often in games last season. It should prepare them for the pressure-cooker games to come.
5. The youth.
Last year I pondered that one of the reasons for North’s defensive vulnerability was they had so many 20-22-year-olds coming through the ranks without fully developed games. Well, they’re all a year older now. Surely there will be at least some improvement among their future core.
With all that going for them, there’s going to be a lot of improvement overall. The only box they’re not ticking is September experience. The current group’s only trip to the finals was two years ago, where they suffered a 96-point elimination final belting at the hands of West Coast.
Obviously, that lack of finals experience could be an issue once we get to September. You’d be a brave man to tip them to go all the way, or even make the grand final.
In the meantime, knowing they were able to compete with – albeit without finishing off – the best sides last year, they’re due for a big rise. Bigger than most are expecting.
3. No coach will be sacked
Now, after what we’ve seen the last few years, this is a fearless prediction. But think about it. You can almost pencil in St Kilda, Melbourne and GWS as bottom four sides. Brisbane can probably be considered a fair chance too.
Yet all four of these clubs have new coaches this season, so it’s hard to picture their boards taking drastic action in 2014. Where else would a coach sacking come from, if not the very bottom?
Gold Coast is an interesting one. They do have an ambitious board, so who can predict the reaction when their much tougher draw this year means they fall (probably a fair way) short of a finals place? Still, Guy McKenna hasn’t done a lot wrong, so you doubt it will come to that.
North Melbourne or Richmond missing the top eight should absolutely raise eyebrows, but it is difficult to see either scenario actually happening.
Obviously we won’t have the same 18 coaches sticking around in 2015, given Mark Thompson is only in charge of Essendon for a year, but it would take something majorly unexpected for a coach to be sacked this year.
4. Buddy will win the Coleman
The Swans showed last year with Kurt Tippett they don’t go out of their way to get a star, then keep their game plan idle.
They went from a forward line of diversified options to being more Tippett-centric than even the biggest Tippett advocate would’ve anticipated. As a result, the former Adelaide gun went on to finish the year ranked third for goals per game.
That example tells us we can be absolutely certain the Swans didn’t offer Buddy nine years to merely plug a gap. They’ve got plans for him, and – in contrast to his latter days at Hawthorn – those plans involve the forward line, something coach John Longmire has confirmed.
With more time up forward, and a higher percentage of the inside 50s aimed at him than in previous years, the goal tally should grow swiftly. Tippett will have a fair tally of his own, but Buddy will reign supreme.