Imagine that Ayrton Senna had climbed out of his crashed Williams Renault FW16 on lap seven of the San Marino Grand Prix, 20 years ago today.
As the motorsport world marks the 20th anniversary of the three-time world champion’s death, consider that hypothetical and a change in the course of history.
Imagine the suspension arm that fatally struck the Brazilian missed. Senna climbs out of his car uninjured, disappointed at recording a third retirement in three races with new rival Michael Schumacher racing away to three wins.
Senna, despite his status as the undisputed No. 1 in Formula One come 1994, was facing up to a whole new set of challenges that season.
Former foes Alain Prost and Nigel Mansell were gone, and though Senna had finally moved to the benchmark team Williams, its advantage was negated by a change in technical regulations that banned the driver aids that had made it the dominant team of the previous two seasons.
Then there was the rise of Schumacher at Benetton, who many believe retained some of those driver aids. Nevertheless, Schumacher was in the same mould as Senna – blindingly quick and ruthless. Their rivalry would have made for a great 1994 season.
Senna should have fought back from a poor start to that season to get on par with Schumacher. The Williams package improved throughout the season, particularly with the introduction of the FW16B in the second half of the year.
Senna’s teammate, the inexperienced Damon Hill, took the championship battle to Schumacher, with the latter winning out in a controversial finale in Adelaide. So it stands to reason that Senna could have overcome the German by season’s end.
The Williams-Renault remained a threat into the 1995 season, though Schumacher’s Benetton team now had the same powerplant as its rivals and would run away with a second title.
Senna would therefore have faced a greater threat from Schumacher in a season that would have provided the real titanic battle between the two in cars of equal performance.
But who would have won? Senna was nine years older than Schumacher and would have found it increasingly difficult to hold back the enthusiastic youngster, though his experience would have counted for a lot considering Schumacher was only in his fourth season.
Hill and teammate David Coulthard managed five wins in 1995. Factoring in Senna’s ability to extract speed from underperforming cars (see his final season at McLaren in 1993) and determination to see off the new foe, he would have been right in the mix for the championship.
The 1996 season would have been the last of Senna’s three-year agreement with Williams, who won the championship with ease with Hill and new teammate Jacques Villeneuve dominating the season.
Schumacher by this stage had moved to the underperforming Ferrari, the two-time champion driven by the desire to lift the great manufacturer out of its slump.
Assuming Senna had defeated Schumacher in 1994 and 1995, it’s unlikely the German moves to Ferrari, a team that required five seasons of a Schumacher-led rebuild to win a title, while still searching for a first championship.
Schumacher would have had two options: stay at Benetton and continue to chip away at the ageing Senna, or look to McLaren, who had aligned with Mercedes-Benz from 1995 in a bid to recover from poor post-Senna seasons.
This appears a likely match-up with reported interest from both Schumacher and McLaren in this period, especially as Schumacher had links with Mercedes-Benz as a driver in its sportscar line-up before his grand prix career.
And what of Senna? He would have been approaching his 36th birthday at the end of the 1996 season as, potentially, a six-time champion, passing the then record of five championships held by his idol, Juan-Manuel Fangio.
While many claim Senna had always been tempted by driving for Ferrari, would he have been keen on rebuilding a team mired by politics and mediocrity so late in his career?
It seems as unlikely as a move to another series – he had flirted with IndyCar when he was disillusioned in his final years at McLaren. At the time of his death he had increased his business and charitable work in his native Brazil, suggesting he was already looking to life beyond racing.
So perhaps he would have retired in 1996. Schumacher could have gone on to claim championships at McLaren-Mercedes instead of the team’s eventual champ Mika Hakkinen, and Ferrari faced further years in the wilderness.
And Brazil and Formula One would have a great ambassador in Senna, who would have achieved considerable things off the race track.
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