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Roarand Garros: Le Mug's guide

Should Stan Wawrinka be included in the Big 5 tennis players? (Image: Creative Commons)
Roar Rookie
25th May, 2014
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Excusez-moi, s’il vous-plait; mais today’s the day the Greatest Show on Clay gets underway. Best read aloud if you can. Permit the banality – and the gratuitous high school French – but tennis’ glorious fortnight spent scrabbling in the dirt can excite a fan unduly.

So, who’s set to snatch the croissants? This casual observer’s guide to Roland Garros 2014 might just have your culprits.

Men’s singles – pour La Coupe des Mousquetaires
(Listed form includes 2014 ATP-level Northern Hemisphere spring claycourt tournaments only. Each listing contains tournament name/status, round/result attained and the relevant opponent in that case. The claycourt title listing refers to the player’s highest-level tournament victory only and does not summarise whole-of-career achievement.)

The Headliners:

– Rafael Nadal ESP (1)

Monte Carlo 1000 QF – David Ferrer
Barcelona 500 QF – Nicolas Almagro
Madrid 1000 Winner – Kei Nishikori (ret)
Rome 1000 Finalist – Novak Djokovic

Eludes comfortable description; especially on clay. The greatest dirtball exponent in tennis history. Eight RG titles (2005-8, 2010-13), 5 other Grand Slams, 18 ATP Masters claycourt titles. But the dogs are barking this year. His most intriguing French Open sortie yet; either the mastery restores or the questions will flow. Title Odds – $2.50

– Novak Djokovic SRB (2)

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Monte Carlo 1000 SF – Roger Federer
Rome 1000 Winner – Rafael Nadal

The archetypal new-millennium hyper-elite athlete. Possessed of defensive capacity and match day temperament to surpass the lot. And comfortable enough on clay. One RG final (2012), 6 Grand Slams, 5 ATP Masters claycourt titles. Entitled to swagger into Paris in 2014. Fit enough and poised to capitalise upon a suitably light preparation. $2.30

– Stan Wawrinka SUI (3)

Monte Carlo 1000 Winner – Roger Federer
Madrid 1000 R32 – Dominic Thiem
Rome 1000 R16 – Tommy Haas

The ATP’s most-recent Grand Slam champion after January’s Melbourne Park heroics. A novel top-ranked Swiss. One RG quarter-final (2013), 1 Grand Slam, 1 ATP Masters claycourt title. Plowing through a marquee breakthrough season. Competent but discernible on clay. $9.00

– Roger Federer SUI (4)

Monte Carlo 1000 Finalist – Stan Wawrinka
Rome 1000 R64 – Jeremy Chardy

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Answers to ‘GOAT’ (Greatest of All-Time) as a nickname without compunction. Nadal’s ubiquity has thwarted an imposing dirtball honour roll and his claycourt kudos due. One RG title (2009), 16 other Grand Slams, 6 ATP Masters claycourt titles. Gritted Monte Carlo out. A new-born twin-set served to mitigate his Roman foible, but his 2014 campaign lacks veracity. $21

– Andy Murray GBR (7)

Madrid 1000 R16 – Santiago Giraldo
Rome 1000 QF – Rafael Nadal

Compare his Mays to his late Junes and Andy Murray checks into Paris like a phantom. Requisite class supplies an occasional pathway on dirt but specialists tend to have him sorted. One RG semi-final (2011), 0 ATP claycourt titles. Works indefatigably and deserves another crack at the red-dust elite. $26

Three to watch:

– Kei Nishikori JPN (9)

Barcelona 500 Winner – Santiago Giraldo
Madrid 1000 Finalist – Rafael Nadal

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One RG fourth-round (2013), 1 ATP 500 claycourt title. First Japanese male to broach the ATP Top 10 with the versatility and potency to stay there. Genuine dirtball credentials. A predictable quarter-final opponent for Novak Djokovic; injury notwithstanding. $26

– Carlos Berlocq ARG (Unseeded)

Casablanca 250 R16 – Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Monte Carlo 1000 Q1 – Albert Ramos
Bucharest 250 R16 – Sergiy Stakhovsky
Oeiras 250 Winner – Tomas Berdych
Rome 1000 Q1 – Albert Ramos

Two RG second-round (2007, 2011), 2 ATP 250 claycourt titles. The Argentinean journeyman bullies hapless dirtballers around the ATP’s less auspicious traps for fun. Would rue retirement before at least one decent RG campaign. Might oblige if he bumps Lleyton Hewitt first-up. $501

– Jiri Vesely CZE (Unseeded)

Casablanca 250 R16 – Andrey Kuznetsov
Bucharest 250 R16 – Grigor Dimitrov
Bordeaux CH QF – Julien Benneteau
Düsseldorf 250 SF – Ivo Karlovic

One RG first-round (2013), 0 ATP claycourt titles. Male Czech tennis’ most absorbing prospect might have a seminal major in the offing. Unluckily held in his double-breaker ATP 250 Düsseldorf SF loss to Croatian perennial Ivo Karlovic. Gets seasoned countryman Lukas Rosol initially and might surprise. $501

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Women’s singles – pour La Coupe Suzanne-Lenglen
(Listed form includes 2014 WTA-level Northern Hemisphere spring claycourt tournaments only. Each listing contains tournament name/status, round/result attained and the relevant opponent in that case. The claycourt title listing refers to the player’s highest-level tournament victory only and does not summarise whole-of-career achievement.)

The Headliners:

– Serena Williams USA (1)

Charleston (International) R32 – Jana Cepelova
Madrid (Premier M) QF – Petra Kvitova (w/o)
Rome (Premier 5) Winner – Sara Errani

Gallops unfettered through the WTA wilderness. Has earned her stake in those conversations about the greatest female players ever. Brings gravitas and strength to render surfaces irrelevant. Two RG titles (2002, 2013), 15 other Grand Slams, 6 WTA Premier Tier1 claycourt titles. Dirtball season form reads patchily but that hasn’t mattered before. Deserved of favoritism. Title Odds – $2.20

– Na Li CHN (2)

Madrid (Premier M) QF – Maria Sharapova
Rome (Premier 5) QF – Sara Errani

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Women’s tennis’ globally-popular enigma and an ensconced WTA World No. 2. Presents as the only female eligible to win the 2014 Calendar Slam after her Australian Open victory. One RG title (2011), 1 other Grand Slam, 0 WTA claycourt titles. Saves her optimal level for the majors and subverts anyone on her day. $6

– Agnieszka Radwanska POL (3)

Katowice (International) SF – Alize Cornet
Stuttgart (Premier) QF – Maria Sharapova
Madrid (Premier M) SF – Maria Sharapova
Rome (Premier 5) QF – Jelena Jankovic

The cerebral all-surface Pole sponsors a heavier program than most elite-bracketers. Consistent, consummate, and clever. One RG quarter-final (2013), 1 WTA Premier Tier2 claycourt title. Remains vulnerable in a slugfest on clay and the title would surprise. $34

– Simona Halep ROU (4)

Stuttgart (Premier) R16 – Sveta Kuznetsova
Madrid (Premier M) Finalist – Maria Sharapova
Rome (Premier 5) R16 – Carla Suarez Navarro (W/O)

Halep’s is the steepest trajectory observable in top-line WTA tennis. Naturally adept on faster hardcourts but dirt is her primary habitat. One RG second-round (2011), 2 WTA (International) claycourt titles. Moves and counter-punches well enough for a Coupe Suzanne-Lenglen if the ducks line up. $13

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– Maria Sharapova RUS (7)

Stuttgart (Premier) Winner – Ana Ivanovic
Madrid (Premier M) Winner – Simona Halep
Rome (Premier 5) R16 – Ana Ivanovic

Brings a profile, pedigree, and dirtball level to mock her (injury-informed) seventh seeding. One RG title (2012), 3 WTA Premier Tier1 claycourt titles. Famously impugned her clay-bound movement as that of a “cow on ice”. Don’t trust her: double-wing power, precision, and an asbestos-lined temperament tend to compensate. Her lopsided career series with Serena Williams is amendable on clay. $6.50

Three to watch:

– Ana Ivanovic SRB (11)

Stuttgart (Premier) Finalist – Maria Sharapova
Madrid (Premier M) QF – Simona Halep
Rome (Premier 5) SF – Serena Williams

An ex-WTA No. 1 busily defying an intransigent form-slump and a flaky temperament. Enjoys winning again. One RG title (2008), 2 WTA Premier Tier1 claycourt titles. Threatened Sharapova in Stuttgart before dumping her in a Rome R16 straight-setter. Should sashay through to a Halep quarter-final and probably beyond. $15

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– Varvara Lepchenko USA (Unseeded)

Charleston (International) R64 – Petra Cetkovska
Madrid (Premier M) R32 – Petra Kvitova
Rome (Premier 5) R16 – Serena Williams

The Uzbek-born American went WTA Top 20 after an excellent all-surface 2012 campaign. One RG fourth-round (2012), 0 WTA claycourt titles. Her draw looks viable: another crack at Czech Cetkovska, then a furtive Ange Kerber; with Bouchard or Pennetta as a prospective fourth-rounder. Any such wouldn’t shock. $501

– Polona Hercog SLO (Unseeded)

Marrakech (International) QF – Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor
Oeiras (International) QF – Carla Suarez Navarro
Rome (Premier M) Q1 – Belinda Bencic

Slovenian dustbuster Hercog pays the bills by punishing the clay-shy on a regular basis. One RG third-round (2010), 2 WTA (International) claycourt titles. Might harass Sloane Stephens in a felt-stripping 2nd-rounder and graduate to a career-best Round of 16 mash-up with Simona Halep. Don’t dismiss her. $2001

Le verdict

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A Rafael Nadal-Novak Djokovic compact seems inevitable; the Spaniard via a hastily-convened fourth-round Barcelona rematch with Nicolas Almagro and a prospective marquee quarter-final with Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov. Stan Wawrinka or Andy Murray won’t bring the store or claycourt facility to win a best-of-fiver semi-final and the Serbian will loom.

For his part, Novak Djokovic could meet Kei Nishikori in a feasible quarter-final and Tomas Berdych, Mikhail Youzhny, Tommy Robredo or Ernests Gulbis in a semi. Roger Federer is purposely omitted; however boldly.

Novak Djokovic beats Rafael Nadal.

The Women’s tournament has no such duopolistic tendency. Serena Williams is prohibitively short and reluctantly contends with a likely third-rounder against evergreen sister Venus. Even routine victory may destabilise the tilt and an ebullient Maria Sharapova might just prevail in a mooted quarter-final.

The victor wins the Coupe Suzanne-Lenglen after dumping Aga Radwanska or Carla Suarez Navarro in a semi. An opponent should be derived from an Ana Ivanovic-Simona Halep quarter-final to play Jelena Jankovic, Sara Errani, mercurial Romanian Sorana Cirstea or Na Li in the bottom-half playoff. The former match-up might supply the victim unto a vehement Russian’s altar in the dust.

Maria Sharapova beats Ana Ivanovic.

BONNE CHANCE!

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Odds correct at time of publication.

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