When it comes to State of Origin time every year, everybody seems to be an expert.
Every person you talk to about Origin will give you their own analysis and predictions, perhaps out of knowledge, or perhaps out of pure hope.
But where does history’s opinion come into play? What are the numbers telling us is going to happen in tonight’s Queensland versus New South Wales blockbuster?
Queensland have won the last eight series, which everybody is aware of. They have won 18 series since the three-game Origin concept started in 1982, compared to New South Wales winning 12, with 2 series resulting in a draw.
Since 1980, when State of Origin began as a one off game, Queensland have won 53 matches, compared to NSW’s 44. Only 2 matches have resulted in a draw.
Many people are writing off NSW’s chances this year more so than the previous two years due to the fact that for the first time since 2011, there will be two games played at Suncorp Stadium. This may be due to the fact that the last time NSW won at Suncorp Stadium was in Game 3, 2009, which happened to be a dead rubber.
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In fact, NSW haven’t won a Game 1 match at Suncorp stadium in 11 years, when Andrew Johns was running the show for the Blues in 2003.
Queensland are coming into the game with a lot more Origin experience, both on the field and off.
Queensland coach Mal Meninga has not lost a series. He has been in charge since 2006, and over 8 series wins, his team has won 17 matches and lost 7. Compared to rookie coach Laurie Daley, who has only coached for 1 year, losing the series 1-2.
If we compare the captains, Cameron Smith has played 30 Origins, been a part of eight series wins and has picked up three man-of-the-series awards.
Opposing leader Paul Gallen has played 16 Origins, and unfortunately for himself and NSW, has not yet been part of a series win.
Out of all the 34 players playing tomorrow night, only three of them have ever won three or more man-of-the-match awards. They all come from Queensland. Billy Slater and Cameron Smith have won three each, whilst Johnathan Thurston has won four man-of-the-match awards.
In saying that, suspended NSW back rower Greg Bird has won three..
It wouldn’t be much surprise if current superstar Greg Inglis crosses the line tomorrow night, as he is the all-time State of Origin record holder for tries scored, with 15 to his name in just 21 starts.
A major talking point for the game is how the tickets have not been sold out yet due to various reasons, mainly the ridiculous pricing.
Referees have also been a major talking point this season, and NSW fans do feel they have been hard done by in recent years. Shayne Hayne and Ben Cummins have been selected as the two referees for game one.
Shayne Hayne has been in charge of 10 Origins, with 8 of them going to Queensland. Ben Cummins has only been part of 1 Origin game, in which NSW won.
Whilst there are endless statistics for State of Origin, these are the ones that are most relevant to tomorrow night’s game.
These stats seem to be pointing in the direction of a Queensland win.
However, the rules of objectivity don’t always apply during State of Origin, so I for one hope these statistics re-write themselves this year and NSW can finally get a series win.
Bring it on, Queensland.
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