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Ewen McKenzie has named three players in his Wallabies squad who will compete for the No. 8 position against France – Scott Higginbotham, Ben McCalman and Wycliff Palu.
They’re all good players, and each brings their own strengths and weaknesses to the table.
Higginbotham has a bit of X-factor for want of a better term, but there must be questions about the consistency of his work throughout a match.
McCalman has a really good work rate, but the question with him must be whether he has the impact required.
Palu’s impact is considered his strength, but the question has to be whether he still delivers enough of that impact throughout the match.
Others will query Palu’s work rate. While it doesn’t match that of McCalman, I don’t think the amount of work he does is so low as to be an issue.
Some of you will question whether Palu is lacking fitness and whether that means he would be something of a passenger. I don’t think there are too many who will argue that Palu can be considered an 80-minute player anymore, but if he makes enough of an impact in 60 minutes, it just means having a player on the bench to cover that eventuality.
So what’s more important for the Wallabies – work rate, X-factor or impact? Ideally, it would be a player that has all three, but I don’t think we have that option in Australia at the moment.
I’d go with impact as being the most important followed by X-factor, with work rate the least important given there will be two other backrowers in the pack with very high work rates in Scott Fardy and Michael Hooper.
So if impact is what we’re after, is Palu the man to start?
I’m not totally convinced. I question whether Palu offers the impact he used to, or whether we’re relying on memories of what he used to do. I’ve asked that same question every time I’ve watched him play this season.
I watched the Waratahs play the Rebels last weekend and came away with the impression that Higginbotham offered more in that match than Palu.
I also thought Will Skelton offered more in his limited time in that match than Luke Jones – everything Skelton did had the impact that I think is required for the Wallabies.
I then noticed Roarers talking up how well Palu played in that match, so I decided to take a closer look.
Palu played 66 minutes before being replaced by Stephen Hoiles. In the first half I recorded him having 23 ‘contact involvements’ where he carried the ball into contact, made a tackle or hit a breakdown. In the second half I recorded him having 15 ‘contact involvements’.
I don’t have comparable figures for other players in that match, but that work rate doesn’t strike me as being low.
Of the 38 ‘contact involvements’ I recorded, 9 were ball carries, 23 were at breakdowns, and 6 were tackles.
ESPN have Palu carrying nine times for a gain of 14 metres, making six tackles and missing one, so my numbers are slightly different to theirs.
I recorded no missed tackles, although one was only completed with one hand grasping the jersey and Israel Folau was the player who actually stopped the ball carrier. Two were dominant tackles where the ball carrier was driven backwards or sideways, two were neutral where the ball carrier was brought to ground but made no real gain, and the other two were passive where the ball carrier made a gain after Palu contacted them.
In breakdowns, I recorded Palu making contact in nineteen attacking rucks, three defensive rucks and one attacking maul.
I recorded 9 of the 23 being positive (where Palu moved a player), 10 being neutral where he hit the breakdown but didn’t move anyone, and 4 being negative (where he hit the breakdown and either fell off the contact or was moved by an opposition player).
On five occasions when carrying the ball Palu got over the gain line, on two occasions he made no gain, and on two occasions he was driven backwards or sideways. I didn’t record him beating any tackles.
His best carry was at 63:10 on the game clock when he received an offload from Benn Robinson, making six metres in contact before Sean McMahon and Colby Fainga’a brought him down.
His best tackle in the match was at 56:05 when he combined with Alofa Alofa to tackle Jason Woodward into touch.
I’ve only looked at one match in detail so the statistics I’ve outlined here are no basis for making a judgement on Palu. But if people really think that Palu performed strongly in this match, I think they’ve set the performance bar very low.
There was not one occasion in this match where Palu did anything more than any other backrower playing Super Rugby in Australia doesn’t do regularly every week.
Looking closely at his performance in this match only makes me question more whether he really does offer the impact we know he used to.
I’ve no doubt that McKenzie would like to select Palu to start matches, but I doubt he will unless Palu demonstrates he can still make an impact. He only really has one chance left to do that when the Waratahs play the Chiefs this weekend.
If Palu doesn’t offer enough impact, I think McKenzie will select Higginbotham ahead of McCalman to start at No. 8 for the first Test against France, with McCalman taking the bench spot.