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This had to happen some time. When we’re looking at the most important wins and losses of a week, it gets complicated when there aren’t any.
Not that there weren’t good games: the Cats and the Blues played a proper thriller; the Giants pushed the Bombers; the Kangaroos mimed the life of a monarch butterfly with a brief but exhilarating display.
But last weekend was a holding pattern: Brisbane were the only side to beat a higher-placed team, and a side with two wins beating a side with three isn’t much of an upset.
The closest contests in ladder terms were third versus fifth and seventh versus ninth, but no one really expected Gold Coast to handle Sydney, or Adelaide to threaten Fremantle in Perth. Everything else was a mismatch, the round averaging nearly seven ladder places between each opposing team.
It was a good day for the Lions, beating the Western Bulldogs in Melbourne to go back-to-back in what has been a miserable season. They looked willing throughout, and while the Dogs kept looking likely, Brisbane pulled away each time.
Needing three goals with five minutes left, the Dogs had three set shots and missed them all. They may have thought they’d be above the lowest level this year, but are struggling down there with the rest of them.
That saw Brisbane jump two places off the bottom of the ladder. The only other moves were Gold Coast’s fall from five to eight, which shuffled up Geelong, Fremantle and North Melbourne, and a straight swap between Adelaide and Essendon at the door of the eight.
If one team emerged from this round with a bit more than a routine win, it was the Kangaroos. Prior to last weekend, they’d alternated wins and losses for their last seven games. They’d beaten Port Adelaide and Sydney but lost to Essendon and Gold Coast.
They badly needed to run over an underdog and get two wins in a row.
They did it by replicating their season within a match, getting belted by Richmond in the first half then belting them back in the second. Fortunately for North their own belt was a little longer.
Brent Harvey was an angry Jack Russell in a chook farm, Drew Petrie awoke from his cryogenic sleep, and now the Kangas have a chance at some consistent form with a critical game against the Crows in Adelaide.
Geelong, meanwhile, are the team believed to have found a loss in a win. “I’d be pretty embarrassed at beating them by less than a kick,” said my most glum Carlton mate, and the sentiment was far from exclusive.
Apparently given Geelong’s flogging by Sydney, said a hundred footy pundits, they should have “made a statement” with a flogging of their own. My Roar stablemate Michael Cowley wrote the traditional piece on why this is the end of the Cats.
Geelong have heard it all before.
Few bothered noting that their six games before Carlton included premiership candidates Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney, three of them played interstate, and with three 6-day breaks thrown in for good measure.
The Cats aren’t firing, but they’ve done enough in their other games, and now their run gets considerably friendlier. The toughest prospect in their next six is Gold Coast away, and as long as they just keep getting the job done, they can play themselves into some form.
Young players like Cam Guthrie and George Horlin-Smith are on fire, the return of a couple of prime midfield movers in Allen Christensen and Josh Caddy won’t hurt, and their biggest games are Hawthorn and Freo late in the season.
The Swans, meanwhile, have to play Port Adelaide twice and Hawthorn once; the Hawks also have Collingwood twice and trips to play Adelaide and Fremantle; and let’s won’t worry about Port, they’re off in the clouds on their own.
Gold Coast’s slip was inevitable as they enter their death spiral: Sydney last weekend, the Eagles in Perth, Hawthorn in Tasmania, and visits from Collingwood and Geelong.
The trick will be whether their young players can retain their confidence through this insanely tough run, and emerge ready to win on the other side. Realistically they might only win one of their next four, but six of their final seven games are extremely winnable.
Do justice to those opportunities and the Suns could still finish with 13 or 14 wins, more than enough for finals. They’ll slip down the ladder over the next month, but those losses needn’t be anywhere as big as they seem.