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The current state of world rugby : The All Blacks are well clear

Kuridrani makes a break. (Image. Tim Anger)
Roar Guru
3rd December, 2014
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2334 Reads

Before the start of the Autumn Internationals I wrote an article in which I said that these end of year games were the most enjoyable for me to watch.

The main reason for that is because it is then and only then that I can support my three favourite teams: the Springboks, Wallabies and All Blacks in absolute peace.

What I neglected to mention, however, was that it also potentially presents the most severe physical, psychological and emotional trauma for me.

I have been on a mini hiatus from The Roar for the past few weeks, for those who had noticed my absence the reason was that I attended numerous support group meetings, individual councils and smile support societies in order to come to terms with my loss, or should I say losses.

After a month of intense sessions of psychoanalysis with my personal rugby psychologist I have been discharged from the Rugby Asylum a changed man, or a changed kid. Whichever Harry Jones counts me as these days.

Springboks to Ireland, Wallabies to France, Wallabies to Ireland, South Africa to Wales, Wallabies to England. That is how my November panned out when it came to the depressing negative column. The only positives were three straight weeks of Black Saturdays. I have never felt so Kiwi in my entire life.

But let’s skip the pleasantries, let’s annihilate the jests, let’s not beat around the bush here. The All Blacks have established themselves as the masters of the rugby world. But more of that later.

The truth of the matter is that I have spent the past month analysing every single match played in November to the finest detail and I believe that I have summarised the state of each and every big hitter team that will be in the running in next year’s World Cup.

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Before we continue I would again like to stress my lack of knowledge on northern hemisphere teams. I’m being honest here with you, this is my first tour of actually watching their teams intentfuly. I’m treading foreign ground here quite literally and I’m attempting to broaden my perspective.

This analysis is solely based on this tour’s games. I apologise for any faulty statements in advance.

Scotland
The Scottish had one standout game on this tour and that would, of course, be against the New Zealand All Blacks.

Under the guidance of Kiwi coach Vern Cotter it would seem that the Bravehearts have made positive strides to a more complete, rounded game. Where they would normally be associated with a “Jakeball” type approach, I found their games to be quite entertaining.

Yes, the All Blacks rang in fourteen changes for their respective match but I have seen All Black B sides put the hurt on other teams before. This was not the case in Murrayfield.

I was impressed with the amount of pressure they poured onto the world champions. Of their players I especially took notice of Craig Laidlaw. He seems a fine player as do the massive Grey brothers.

The tragedy is that they didn’t play any other top tier team so the only thing we can go by is All Black B.

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Right now I think they are on the right track. Injuries, however, would be a major setback for them as their depth is not so sustainable as Ireland, Wales or England’s.

Argentina
Los Pumas are the mixed bag of mixed bags, after Les Blues of course. The Pumas claimed an historic win over the Wallabies in the closing game of the Championship and seemed to have the northern hemisphere at their feet.

This is where they were a little disappointing. Had they played with the same intensity as in the Championship I could see them beating Italy quite comfortably, but they didn’t.

I like that fact that they’re trying to play a southern hemisphere style of a fast paced, skillful game, but sometimes they tend to be little overzealous. The Pumas seem perfectly capable of playing both a structured and loose game but they tend to choose the wrong style in the wrong moment.

They run well when it’s not on, which is a good sign but sometimes a costly one. Their kicking game ain’t half bad either, but they sometimes tend to kick when they should run as well. It’s all a balance shortage for them along with the identification of certain scenarios.

The negative I will highlight for the Pumas is the breakdown. They tend to be unbelievably sloppy regarding its technicalities most of the times, and they get pinged for it.

I use the word technicalities for a reason. The Pumas are actually highly efficient at the breakdown, their technique is solid. They have a good ability of turning ball over either by solitary confinement or a group counter-ruck.

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Unfortunately their disregard for the rules undoes their herculean effort. Coming in from the side, diving over, hands in the ruck and so forth. Once they learn the delicacies I see them becoming a fearsome breakdown force.

France
France seem to be the one team in the northern hemisphere that has a crack at the defence without the reliance of the up and under slugfest. Unfortunately for Les Blues they also seem to have a constant crack to humiliate themselves.

Brilliant one game to brilliantly awful the next. From KFC to Kwikky Chicky, looking like Tarzan in one game and plays like Jane the next. You get my point.

Is there some kind of medical cure for this? If so we need it pronto if France are to dispatch the All Blacks in their potential quarter-final meeting next year. Allez les blues boys.

Anyhow, the French were highly impressive against the Wallabies. They showed they can put on oodles of pressure, pace and relentlessness in Paris. They have seemed to unearth a gem of a fly-half this time round and players like Thierry Dusautoir, Rory Kockott and Teddy Thomas will be instrumental to their world cup aspirations.

Ireland
The most impressive northern hemisphere team this tour and the third ranked team in the world. Under Joe Schmidt Ireland seem to be heading in an upward curve at the right time. If you have to start peaking, start peaking now.

I watched their wins over the Springboks and Australia numerous times and I eventually decided to agree with Spiro Zavos wholeheartedly. The Irish were dishing out Jakeball as if there was no tomorrow.

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I lost count after Jonathan Sexton sent up the eighth up and under for Rob Kearney and Tommy Bowe to chase against the Wallabies.

Before taking up arms and lighting the torch and pitchforks, I have no problem with Ireland doing this. You choose a game that suits and plays to your strengths and that is what Ireland did.

In Rob Kearney and Tommy Bowe they probably have the two best high ball chasers in the world and Jonathan Sexton seems to be their Morne Steyn of 2009. Actually, Ireland look like the Springboks of 2009 reincarnated. Paul O’Connell is their version of Victor Matfield

But the player I have most been impressed with of Ireland is Conor Murray. To my mind Murray is a complete scrum-half and certainly a cut above Francois Hougaard, Aaron Smith, Will Genia and the likes.

Where Francois Hougaard continuously struggles with his decision making and Aaron Smith continuously shows his defensive frailties, Murray has both covered. His defence is exceptional, his passing crisp and his kicking game is without fault.

The only question to Ireland is whether or not they can actually win outside of Dublin. Ireland have never beaten either the All Blacks or Springboks at an away venue for over a century. The majority of their games against SANZAR opponents have been at home, averaging nearly 70 per cent home games to 30 per cent away.

To be clear I don’t say this as a dig at the Irish team, simply that their ability to win away from home is dire and the world cup may be in Europe, but it’s still not Dublin.

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Right now they are an unknown quantity for the world cup, but they certainly have a newly found stellar form to live up to.

England
The hosts of the world cup have got a long, hard year in front of them. After the emphatic win over the All Blacks back in 2012, England claimed the attention of all teams in the world cup.

Regardless of current form they will be a force to be reckoned with next year and teams should be weary when approaching them.

England have the power up front to dominate the close exchanges, but it is in their backline where their biggest problem resides. Injuries don’t help either.

The unfortunate fact is that England have even less strike power in the backline than the Springboks do, and that is saying something.

The inability to convert pressure into points through a sterile backline costs England more than they realise. There is, however, a shining light in Manu Tuilagi. While Tuilagi isn’t a creator, he does provide them with a pretty big punch in the midfield.

When you have that kind of momentum a team usually finds creating opportunities to be much easier.

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There is the risk of over reliance in a player. If Tuilagi is the only backline player to be feared then their chances still look quite bleak. Fortunately they also have Mike Brown at the back, and he is no slouch.

Wales
I have always felt that Wales are the sleeping giants of northern hemisphere rugby. To my mind I believe they are capable of becoming a world force once they finally realise their potential.

This potential is scrawled right across their team sheet.

Richard Hibbard at hooker is one of the best in the world. With du Plessis and Strauss a little out of sorts it might even be safe to say that he is the current best. In the locks they have Alun-Wyn Jones at 5, who is a warrior in his own right. Of their backrow Toby Faletau and skipper Sam Warburton have proven to be highly influential.

Their backline may not be the most creative, nor are they the fastest, but they certainly are the biggest and most intimidating. They have Mike Phillips who is 190cm, 100kg, Biggar is 188cm, 90kg, North who is 193cm, 109kg, Jamie Roberts a massive 193cm, 110kg, Davies 186cm, 103kg and Alex Cuthbert a staggering 198cm, 106kg.

This backline masses up to an average height of 189cm and a weight of 100.4kg. Basically the Springbok pack of backlines

Like Ireland and England they too rely heavily on tactical kicks and physicality. It proved to be sufficient against the Springboks last weekend. Their biggest weapon will be the belief the Springboks handed to them on a silver platter.

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Australia
Australia are in trouble, big trouble. But that’s okay because they have a new coach and have come back from yet another biohazardous environment for the umpteenth time.

Let’s be honest, any Wallaby fan that expected more than two wins on this tour was just kidding themselves. The Wallabies have been through a lot the past year, the majority of their troubles being off-field.

It’s not making excuses for the team or Michael Cheika to say that a horrid tour was reasonable. Cheika said in the beginning that for the sake of continuity he would stick with the bulk of McKenzie’s structures and selections. It was the sensible thing to do.

He doesn’t have a lot of time left to implement his own style into the team, Cheika’s greatest obstacle now is the race against time.

The Wallabies have the players to play the best running game on the planet, but what costs them is their inability to play the tactical kicking game the All Blacks play. You have to have a tactical kicking game, the Wallabies need to embrace that.

That doesn’t mean in the least bit that they can’t still run the living Poite out of every team under the sun, it just means that they have to get into the position to do so via tactical kicking.

Lastly they need to do something about their scrums. Urgently.

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South Africa
How the mighty have fallen. For the past two years the Springboks have been steadily been working their way up to the higher hierarchies of rugby teams, to that mystical realm where the All Blacks reside. Two years of promise only to smack you in the face of reality.

The Springboks are just another team roaming the lands of the rugby union kingdom, searching desperately for the gates of ascendancy. I confess that they had me going for a while, but now it is as clear as David Pocock coming in from an offside position that while the Springboks are the undeniable second best team in the world, they are about as far behind the All Blacks as Japan is behind them.

Springbok rugby did what it did best. It teaches us that lessons we learn in DC comics movies are damn true.

In The Dark Knight Rises, the antagonist Bane has this to say to Batman; “It was here that I learned that there can never really be true dispair without hope. Like shipwrecked men turning to salt water to quench their thirst, I will give Gotham hope and poison their souls as they claw their way through each other to have their place in the sun.”

I’m pretty certain Christopher Nolan is an All Black supporter trying to send us Bok supporters a message through this movie. I mean “The Dark Knight”, he’s not fooling anyone. Either this or I need to get back to the asylum.

Moving on, the Springboks have me particularly puzzled. In one game they played an insanely stupid gameplan consisting, basically, out of bludgeoning the opponent, kicking kicks that would kick themselves if rugby balls were sentient beings and receiving a yellow card or two. Bismarck collects them, he’s building the Eifel tower with them.

On other days they play a game that frightens even the All Blacks. A style where they combine their physical presence with pace and skill. Like at Ellis Park. But it only happens about as often as when Justin Bieber gains a male fan.

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I don’t mind the forward pack at all. I know when the injuries return then our forward pack will easily out-power any other team’s. Ideally I would pick this forward pack as to start; Tendai Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, Flip van der Merwe, Francois Louw, Willem Alberts, Duane Vermeulen.

A few question marks, I know. Let me explain. Flip van der Merwe supplied the Boks with a hard, physical presence that complemented the power and pace of Etzebeth. Plus with Flip at five, the Boks only lost two lineouts in Europe in 2013. In fact his lineout stats read much better than Matfield’s. Go figure.

The loose trio is simple. This year taught us how much both Louw and Alberts mean to the Boks. The class of 2013 didn’t get shoved around in scrums or in contact.

In a previous article I asked whether the Boks have gone soft. It certainly seemed like it by the way other teams had been strolling over our advantage line while our scrums were throwing doughnuts in reverse-gear.

My problems lie with the backline. At scrum-half we only really have three good options. Fourie du Preez, Francois Hougaard and Cobus Reinach. I am inclined to go with du Preez.

While he does not have Reinach or Hougaard’s speed, he does have two things both lack. A very accurate passing game and calmness. You would never see him looking around with the ball in his hands, not knowing who to pass to.

Pollard chooses himself at 10. On the wings I would pick Habana and le Roux. Willie le Roux is a wing, not a fullback. He played fullback this year, and was relatively poor. He played wing in the Suncorp, Cape Town and Ellis Park tests in 2013 and produced excellent performances. Lambie goes to fullback.

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The centre combination is the biggest headache. I promised myself not to go down this road again as I have made my sentiments very clear in the past. Therefore I will only pick my centres. Damian de Allende and Jaque Fourie (if Meyer convinces him to come back, which is what he will be attempting next week in Japan).

New Zealand
The world champions have proven themselves to be a cut above the rest. With the fall of both the Boks and the Wallabies, the All Blacks find themselves as the king of the hill by quite some deficit.

Forget close games and the one loss to the Boks, none of them matter, A one off win is just that, a one off win. Close games mean nothing if you don’t beat the All Blacks. You either beat them or you don’t and if you don’t, and you fail to do so for years, which is the case with pretty much everyone, it will never matter how close you get. The game reads a loss, end of story, goodbye, the end.

Two losses and two draws in three years is what the rest of the rugby world need to contend with. The Boks looked to be heading in that direction, but their inconsistency shows how far off even they are.

A miracle. That is all that stands between the All Blacks and their inevitable third Rugby World Cup title.

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