As Geoff lemon recently wrote, Michael Clarke’s potential return from injury could give the Australian selectors some major headaches.
You wouldn’t be out of line in thinking that the team doesn’t even need it’s captain to win the World Cup. In fact they might be better off without him.
The batting line-up is unbelievably strong, even without Michael Clarke in the side.
If Clarke does recovery in time for the World Cup it’s going to be difficult figuring out which batsman to replace, especially if they’re all scoring runs.
Steve Smith is essentially filling in for Michael Clarke in the side but what happens if he continues his golden run of form and makes plenty of runs in the upcoming tri-series? Surely he’s not getting dropped.
The same goes for George Bailey, who has a fantastic one-day record and has done an admirable job as stand-in skipper when Clarke’s been injured.
But assuming Clarke does recover in time and the selectors still want him to captain the side, who gets the chop?
Let’s have a look at the two most likely line-ups Australia will go with while Clarke is out.
Option 1
David Warner
Aaron Finch
Shane Watson
Steve Smith
George Bailey
Mitch Marsh/Glenn Maxwell – depending on Marsh’s fitness and weather they want the extra spin option in the side.
Brad Haddin
James Faulkner
Mitchell Johnson
Mitchell Starc/Josh Hazlewood/Pat Cummins – take your pick.
Xavier Doherty
A very balanced side. The batting features an explosive top order, a steady middle order and big-hitting all rounders to finish off the innings, while the bowling unit possesses great variety and depth, which is essential in a 50 over match.
Option 2
Warner
Finch
Watson
Smith
Bailey
Maxwell
Haddin
Faulkner
Johnson
Starc
Hazlewood/Cummins
In this scenario Marsh and Doherty are out and an extra fast bowler comes into the side. Maxwell now becomes the main spinning option, making this a risky move considering his economy rate.
In both cases I can’t see an all-rounder making way for Clarke, it would need to be one of the batsmen. It’s the all rounders that give this team the edge over all the other nations in the World Cup. No other team will have the options or flexibility the Australians possess in the field.
Well if Clarke’s not replacing Smith, Bailey or the all rounders, what about the openers?
Finch looks safe. He’s been one of the in-form openers in the world the past year or so and it would take some seriously lack of runs for him to get dropped.
What about the dynamic Dave Warner, surely he couldn’t be a candidate to make way for the captain?
Well the answer surprisingly is yes, he could be.
Although he’s thought of as one of the most damaging limited-overs players in the game, the numbers just don’t back that up.
To further illustrate this point here are the batting statisitcs in one-day internationals for the Australian batsmen in the squad.
| Batting av | Strike rate | |
| Warner | 31.4 | 83.5 |
| Finch | 37.2 | 87.4 |
| Watson | 41.1 | 91.2 |
| Clarke | 44.2 | 78.6 |
| Bailey | 44.2 | 87.9 |
| Smith | 31.7 | 87.7 |
| Marsh | 36 | 89.8 |
All the batsmen in the squad have a better ODI average than Warner, and only Clarke has a lower strike rates!
To make matters worse, Warner has only made two centuries in 49 innings. Now compare that to his opening partner in Aaron Finch, who’s scored five centuries in just 35 innings.
It’s almost unfathomable that Warner would be regarded as the weakest link in the batting order but that’s exactly what the above statistics show.
Dropping Warner however would require the batting order to be re-jigged somewhat, as Watson would probably move up to opener where he’s batted most of his one-day career. One of either Smith or Clarke would then need to bat at number three – a risky move probably not worth taking.
The easiest and most logical move is to just leave Clarke out.
This would be a huge call by the selectors considering Michael Clarke is the captain of the side, but unless one of the other batsmen has a horrific run of form I can’t justify him being selected.
It’s not as if Clarke is a superior one-day batsman to Smith or Bailey, who have both averaged over 45 the past two years compared to Clarke’s 37.
There’s still a chance however that Clarke doesn’t heal in time for the second match of the tournament – which is the deadline the selectors have given him – or maybe one of the other batsmen gets injured, opening up a spot for the captain to return.
In the end it probably won’t matter because when the worst batsman in the side is David Warner you know you’re in good shape.
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