A few years ago I ran into an effusive Peter Fenton, the great rugby man, coach and poet known to one and all as ‘Fab’.
Fab is the quintessential punter, a staunch believer in the saying that money won is twice as sweet as money earned, and the smile on his face was due to the stupendous news that one of the big bookmaking firms had decided to run a book on Sydney Shute Shield rugby.
It was the answer to all Fab’s prayers – a bookie running odds on a sport that no-one in the civilised world knew better than Fab. Had they had him actually writing the odds instead of taking advantage of them, they may have had some chance, but whoever was making the book didn’t know half of what Fab knew, and so he was making hay.
The winning streak apparently continued for several weeks, probably until the monthly performance meeting when the bookies realised they were being laid to waste by an extended one man tornado called Cyclone Fenton, and they skied the rag.
“Oh well” said Fab “It was good while it lasted”.
The obscurities of the Shute Shield may have been a bridge too far for the bookies, but Super Rugby is an emerging playing field for professional punters, one which is made all the more interesting by the vagaries of travel, sporting politics and an international window dropped square in the middle of the draw.
Every punter, whether they’re betting on horses, trading currencies or shipping black-market fuel into Angola, knows that the best windows of opportunity come from volatility. The less volatile a market, the less chance there is to make an earn.
Now, if there is one thing that is built into the Super Rugby season, it’s volatility, so there must be an earn there.
Of course, I’m the muggest of mug punters, so I have no advice for you, but I like a free lunch as much as the next man.
So, I tracked down a good professional punter I know who wishes to remain nameless, but who has had several years of success with Super Rugby, and asked him how the crazy and the brave could pick up a few bucks on the side, or at least win their office tipping comp.
So that you too can become a tipping legend, here’s what he said – exactly what he said.
“Super Rugby is a really interesting subject for betting and tipping because its got so many dynamics that have an impact. Travel, odd numbers of games, the international window all have an effect.”
“What that means is that it isn’t really a week-by-week proposition, you have to keep a long term view of what is happening, because every team will have some odd results through the year. That’s good for tipsters, because tipping is a cumulative, season-long thing, so a few unexpected losses don’t matter so much.
“A good place to start is to check out who teams don’t play, rather than who they do. For instance, the Waratahs this year don’t play the Bulls or the Chiefs in the competition rounds, which means that they avoid a heavy forward clash, maybe in Pretoria, and a running slugfest against the Chiefs in NZ, at least until the semis. So their season just got easier.
“If you want to back a team early in the season to take the title, this is a good place to start.
“The next thing to look at is where the byes come in. Byes seem like an obvious advantage, and they are for the most part, but where they are in the season still makes a big difference. A bye early on can actually stop a team from hitting their rhythm – it is much more of an advantage later in the season when there are a few niggles to recover from.
“It’s also much more useful when it comes immediately after an overseas tour, particularly an Africa trip. I sometimes avoid a marginal team with early season byes as it takes them a long time to get momentum.
“Everyone knows travel is a big deal in Super Rugby. We know that every side is going to have a weird result during the year, and it will mostly happen after a trip, particularly when they meet a strong side who has been at home.
“The other factor about grounds is temperature and this is one that tipsters and punters often know about, but then don’t really do anything with. Canberra and Dunedin in June can be bloody freezing and will have a massive effect on teams from warmer climates who are travelling there. Durban in late April and even in early May can be a real sauna.
“Temperature is probably the greatest single environmental factor that will affect a team’s performance, and when we have global weather at our fingertips, there’s no excuse for not factoring it into tipping. Match kickoff times also affect temperature – the Highlanders are probably not going to enjoy an afternoon match at Suncorp in Queensland.
“Those are all the geographic and environmental sort of considerations but we’ve also got to spend some time looking at the sides themselves and what their history says about them.
“One thing we do know is that the Kiwi sides are generally very consistent, and the South Africans are typically the least consistent, particularly when travelling, so I mostly avoid betting on or tipping the South African sides when they’re on the road.”
For more on consistency, read this recent article on The Roar.
“The other thing is derbies. Form is really, really unreliable in derby games and this is one of the volatilities that is great for the punter and the tipster, because you have a much better chance of beating an obvious choice in a derby and this is where you make up ground in a tipping comp.”
“Be careful of following sides with heaps of internationals though. The conventional wisdom says they’re hard to beat, and they are, but only as long as their internationals stay on the park. If your side has a Test flyhalf and you’re backing them to make the final, and they lose him to injury, then you’re in real trouble because you probably don’t have a player of that calibre to draft in. This is where fantasy league coaches get into trouble a lot”.
“Also your Test players would normally be significantly more weary by the end of the season because they play through the June Test window, but there are no June Tests this year – which is a shame from a betting and tipping point of view, because it makes the season more consistent”.
“The World Cup will throw a few curlys into the mix though. We might get lucky if some of the national coaches weigh in and ask for players to be rested, or get over-protective on players with minor injuries, but we’ll have to wait and see”.
“Probably the last thing to look at is turnarounds. A short turnaround with some travel thrown in can really upset a team and introduces some good volatility for the tipsters and punters”.
“Thats what we’re after – volatility that leads to unusual performances. The message for punters and tipsters is that while you take the short term into account, you’re looking for results over the long term. Find a team that travels early, has late byes and not too many Test players in key positions. Check out who they don’t play, and then stick with them for the year”.
“As they go from week to week, keep an eye on their travel schedules, their byes and the weather to see if it’s enough to make you change your mind. If it isn’t, then stick with them”.
“Oh and by the way – if you’ve got a home team, forget loyalty. This is business”.
Bon chance!
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