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The 2015 Cricket World Cup is now into the knockout stages. The minnows have excelled but are now out of the tournament. They have been joined on the sidelines by some salmon, so the tuna and sharks can fight out the finals.
Let’s have a look at the eight teams left in the battle.
New Zealand have looked strong all tournament. What has been most refreshing is their determination to go hard. They had England, Scotland, Australia and Afghanistan all out for low scores and they chased really hard.
It almost backfired a couple of times, but they refused to go easy. This is quite intimidating for the opposition. When batting first they have scored big, as expected. This team is well balanced and probably the blueprint for a 50 over team.
Big hitting openers followed by Test class batsmen, followed by big hitting all-rounders including the keeper. The bowlers swing the ball early and reverse it late. The spinner strangles the run rate and a couple of medium pacers also hold the strike rate down.
Brendon McCullum has been a revelation as an opener and captain. In a classy field he is probably the best strike opener around. The batsmen have not been among the runs, mainly because they bat second chasing small targets. Every batsman has had a hit though, and will be primed for the big games.
The bowlers have been outstanding. Tim Southee and Trent Boult have torn through teams, while Dan Vettori stops them in their tracks.
All the main bowlers go for less than five runs an over. The only thing that New Zealand have to be concerned about is having one of “those” games, where it all turns to crap. That should not happen against West Indies.
India have been an interesting side. They looked very ordinary earlier in Australia, but have come good when it matters. This all stems back to the derby against Pakistan.
I think that game steeled them, and they haven’t looked back since. They are a funny side, the batting looks strong and the bowling a bit flaky. Shikhar Darwan looked terrible before the World Cup but is now their main man. He and Virat Kohli have scored the big runs, although every batsman has had a score of note.
Like New Zealand, they haven’t had to score too heavily, because the bowlers are doing their job so well.
Now the Indian bowlers are going for less than five runs an over. Mohammed Shami is leading the pace attack, but Umesh Yadav has provided some good speed and bounce.
However, the Indians have found their success once they combined Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja in the team. It shortens the tail significantly but also has totally changed the middle overs of their games. Ashwin, in particular comes on and takes wickets, and slows the run rate. India has a point of difference now, as they were never going to match Australia, New Zealand or South Africa with pace alone.
The other big x-factor for India is that MS Dhoni has barely started with his batting. This guy is built for the big matches, so they should be very confident. They will play Bangladesh in the first quarter final, and should win comfortably.
Australia have had a funny tournament. After the warm up games they were cruising, then the engine started to miss. The washout meant a fortnight between games and then they ran into a white-hot New Zealand. To their credit, they nearly pulled that game out of the mire so that is encouraging.
Australia has a team a lot like New Zealand’s. They actually have two killers to open, so one will almost always come off. They have the Test guys in Steve Smith and Michael Clarke and their batting goes deep. The bowlers led by Mitch Starc, move the ball or get good lift. The only thing they miss is a spinner of note.
Glenn Maxwell has more than paid his dues by finally batting to his ability, but Australia do not have a slow bowler that can pull back the run rate.
They have, however stumbled upon something significant. Playing Shane Watson down the order has transformed him into a confident batsman. Now his bowling has to match it. The other guy that needs to lift is Mitch Johnson, who is way too expensive.
Australia’s Achilles heel is the fifth bowler for sure. They play Pakistan, who are the scariest team in a knockout match.
South Africa have also sputtered their way along so far. Sometimes they look unbeatable, and others times they get beaten. Like their southern cousins they rely on strong and long batting and a demon pace attack. They do have a tendency to rely on AB de Villiers, but why the hell not?
South Africa would probably be a bit twitchy about Quinton de Kock, who has not fired a shot in anger so far. All of the other top order batsmen have had scored centuries, and Farhaan Behardien and Rilee Rossouw fifties. Their bowling has been okay, and surprisingly Dale Steyn has been outbowled by his fellow pacemen.
The big problem is that they lack a fifth bowler. They really should play de Villiers as keeper and play five front line bowlers. They won’t do this, as they are inherently conservative.
Imran Tahir will be critical. He has performed well, but under pressure in a knockout game, will he stand up?
They will be playing Sri Lanka in what I expect could be a big scoring match. Neither team will see 300 as unchaseable.
Sri Lanka have grown into this tournament. Their batting has gone through the roof with Kumar Sangakarra scored four consecutive hundreds. Lahiru Thirimanne and Tillakaratne Dilshan have enjoyed runs as well. Their problem, like all teams with good top order form, is that the lower order aren’t getting a hit. I don’t think it will matter too much. They have too much class in the batting order to be concerned about runs.
Bowling is a different kettle of fish altogether. Lasith Malinga is just getting back into nick and is not the terror he used to be. Rangana Herath was injured for the Australian game, and they missed him terribly. Sri Lanka’s main bowlers are going for too many runs and the death bowling has been hammered.
For them to go further into the tournament they really need to bat themselves to victory.
Pakistan are the schizophrenics of World Cup cricket. They lose badly to the West Indies, then run around and beat South Africa. They haven’t really scored any big runs, but their bowlers have been very economical as a group.
Misbah ul Haq has stood out as a batsman. He has managed four fifties, but never gone on to a hundred. The other batsman have all scored a fifty and a duck. What does that tell you?
For the bowlers, the giant Mohammed Irfan and speedy Wahab Riaz have fought well every match. Sohail Khan has also backed them, but a bit costly. I felt the key to Pakistan before the tournament started was Shahid Afridi and it still is. He has really done nothing so far, and may only have one match-winning effort left in him. Their opponents will just be hoping that it isn’t the next match. Having said that, I don’t see them going any further.
Bangladesh have been blessed by the cricketing gods. The washout against Australia was a godsend, so that by the time they beat an inept England, they didn’t have to beat New Zealand to make the quarters.
Having said that, they have been improving each game and deserve their spot.
Mahmudullah Riyad has been their outstanding batsman with two consecutive centuries. Mushfiqur Rahim has backed him up with three fifties and all of the batsmen have had at least one good score. Like their sub continental cousins, these guys can bat.
With the ball Bangladesh struggle. Shakib al Hasan has cemented his reputation as an all-rounder, but the medium pacers just don’t penetrate. Mashrafe Mortaza has probably been the best, with good economy, but the team as a whole struggle to get the opposition out. This tends to mean they have to chase big scores. I can’t see them beating India but they should be very proud to have made the quarters.
West Indies limped into the finals really. This is a strange team, but not a surprise when you consider they are a group of nations rather than one country, and that most players earn their crust from the T20 circuit. Given that, they are still under performers.
Chris Gayle smashed 215 in one innings, but has scored only 64 in the rest of the tournament combined. Most of the batsmen have been the same, one innings or bust. The upside for the West Indies is that they bat deep, or more correctly every player has the ability to hit good runs. Darren Sammy, Andre Russell and Jason Holder have all contributed.
Their bowling is honest fast-medium stuff, which is extraordinary when you recall the great pacemen of the past. Jerome Taylor has been the standout, with fourteen wickets, but they tend be going for five to six runs an over as a group.
Gayle has been surprisingly good with the ball, and been a partnership breaker on a few occasions.
The West Indies now play New Zealand in New Zealand. I don’t think they can win, but for them to do so, they must bat first, score big, and hope New Zealand get nervous.
So, my tips for the quarter finals are as follows:
South Africa to beat Sri Lanka in Sydney
India to beat Bangladesh in Melbourne
Australia to beat Pakistan in Adelaide
New Zealand to beat West Indies in Wellington.
This would set up New Zealand versus South Africa in Auckland, and Australia versus India in Sydney.
I can’t wait to see how it pans out.
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