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Following the news that Rick Stone had been sacked from the Newcastle Knights there was some speculation that teams often won their first game under a new coach. It was suggested that I should look into the statistics. So I did.
Please bear in mind that these stats are only for coaches who were replaced mid season. There were a great deal more who saw out the season before being replaced for the next season.
Here’s what I found out:
| Year | Team | Old Coach | Sacked or resigned | Season Win % |
New Coach | First up win? | Subsequent Win % | Continue as coach? |
| 2015 | Knights | Rick Stone | Sacked | 33% | Danny Buderus | No | 0% | ? |
| 2014 | Titans | John Cartwright | Resigned | 36% | Neil Henry | No | 25% | Yes |
| 2014 | Warriors | Matt Elliott | Sacked | 40% | Andrew McFadden | No | 52.6% | Yes |
| 2014 | Dragons | Steve Price | Sacked | 40% | Paul McGregor | No | 50% | Yes |
| 2014 | Sharks | Peter Sharp | Resigned | 21.5% | Jamie Shepherd | Yes | 20% | No |
| 2013 | Raiders | David Furner | Sacked | 47.6% | Andrew Dunemann | No | 0% | No |
| 2012 | Eels | Steve Kearney | Sacked | 22.2% | Brad Arthur | Yes | 33.3% | Yes |
| 2012 | Warriors | Brian McClennan | Sacked | 36.3% | Tony Iro | No | 0% | No |
| 2011 | Bulldogs | Kevin Moore | Sacked | 43.75% | Jim Dymock | No | 62.5% | No |
| 2011 | Panthers | Matt Elliott | Sacked | 38.5% | Steve Georgalis | Yes | 36.4% | No |
| 2010 | Sharks | Ricky Stuart | Resigned | 29.4% | Shane Flanagan | No | 28.6% | Yes |
| 2009 | Knights | Brian Smith | Resigned | 50% | Rick Stone | Yes | 60% | Yes |
| 2008 | Cowboys | Graham Murray | Resigned | 30% | Ian Millward | No | 14.3% | No |
| 2007 | Roosters | Chris Anderson | Resigned | 31.25 | Brad Fittler | Yes | 62.5% | Yes |
| 2006 | Eels | Brian Smith | Sacked | 22.2% | Jason Taylor | No | 62.5% | No |
| 2002 | Cowboys | Murray Hurst | Sacked | 0% | Graham Murray | No | 38% | Yes |
| 2001 | Cowboys | Tim Sheens | Sacked | 18% | Murray Hurst | No | 26.6% | Yes |
| 2001 | Storm | Chris Anderson | Sacked | 28.6% | Mark Murray | No | 47.3% | Yes |
| 1999 | Bears | Peter Louis | Sacked | 37.5% | Kieran Dempsey | No | 25% | N/A |
| 1998 | Rams | Rod Reddy | Sacked | 10% | Dean Lance | Yes | 42.8% | N/A |
| 1998 | Rabbitohs | Steve Martin | Sacked | 16.6% | Craig Coleman | No | 33.3% | Yes |
So what does that all tell us:
Salary Cap issues at the Cowboys? Give me a break
Last week the Fairfax Media raised the matter of property deals involving Cowboys stars including Johnathan Thurston, James Tamou and Matt Scott that could possibly contravene the salary cap rules. Fortunately the NRL was quick to hose the matter down.
I say fortunately because in the age of third party deals, marquee player payments, Daly Cherry-Evans backflips and the Andrew Gee controversy, the salary cap is only a restraint for the weaker clubs. The big boys can get around it easily with no issues. There is no level playing field.
As I’ve stated previously , I see no point in continuing the charade of the salary cap. Clubs should be able to use whatever means they have at their disposal to be competitive. Their boards should be responsible for the financial viability of the organisation, not NRL HQ.
The only input Mr Smith and his boys need to have is providing grants to the clubs that are commensurate with their relative financial strength. For example: Brisbane Broncos Limited are the only team in a city of two million people. They have an average crowd of 35,000 and unfettered access to masses of third party sponsorship. Conversely the North Queensland Cowboys are based in a town with a population of less than 200,000 people, an average crowd of 15,000 and very little third party sponsorship. They require a far bigger grant to ensure that they remain viable and competitive.
The Cowboys are one of only three sides in the NRL that are based outside of metropolitan Australia. Their success – or near success – of the last decade can be put almost entirely down to the presence of Johnathan Thurston. How the deal was done to get him there, and how they have kept him there since, is of little concern to me. My concern is what will happen to them once he retires. Will it mean the same as the retirement of Laurie Daley or Andrew Johns meant for the other two regional sides?
Given my above sentiments, you would think I would be pressing for a draft to be introduced into the NRL. Drafts are all about trying to equalise talent to create as even a competition as possible. However, a draft just won’t work in the NRL.
Drafts work in leagues that are completely dominant and provide the biggest dollars to the players. The NFL and Major League Baseball are the only real options for grid iron and baseball players. Of course they’ll submit to a player draft. You have to submit to the AFL draft if you want to play top level AFL. However, if you are a young up and coming league player you can sell your wares in the NRL, Super Rugby, Japanese rugby, European rugby and the English Super League just to name the main ones. If the NRL introduces a draft it risks having the top prospective talent head off for the bigger bucks of other competitions.
The logical way for the NRL to try and equalise the competition is a three pronged approach.
1. Give less successful clubs increased grants to help them lure players.
The chart at the end of this article shows which clubs have struggled over the long term. If the NRL is serious about providing a competitive competition for the new broadcast deal they’ll not just need to guarantee the existence of 16 sides but actually help them all to be competitive. I’m not talking extra support after a few seasons of bad results. I’m talking about sustained periods of being also rans. There are six clubs that have not won a Premiership in the last two decades. Three of those sides haven’t even played in one.
2. Give clubs distinct salary cap concessions for juniors they develop
This is a no brainer. If a club has had a kid in their junior teams then they should get a discount on how much of his salary counts towards the salary cap when he is in the senior teams. The size of the discount would be dependent on how long the player had been in the teams system. It rewards good recruitment and development. There is no valid argument against this.
3. Give regional clubs extra salary cap space to offset their less desirable locations
The AFL gave the clubs in Brisbane and Sydney – which were undesirable locations in the AFL world – cost of living allowances to help those sides attract players and create competitive sides. The result? The 2001, 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2012 premierships and runners up in 2006 and 2014 for two sides that had previously had just one grand final appearance and a handful of finals matches between them.
Newcastle, North Queensland and the Raiders need to spend extra funds to compete with the bright lights and big bucks of Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney. The NRL should facilitate this.
Can stats predict the results?
Last week we looked at whether you could predict the results using stats. The answer, to some extent but not with any great confidence. Here’s how I went:
| Prediction | Actual | Difference |
| Roosters by 14 | Roosters by 10 | Correct result – 4 points off |
| Storm by 8 | Wests Tigers by 18 | Wrong result – 26 points off |
| Sharks by 10 | Sharks by 4 | Correct result – 6 points off |
| Cowboys 13+ | Cowboys by 8 | Correct result – wrong margin |
| Broncos 13+ | Sea Eagles 13+ | Wrong result – opposite margin |
| Dragons by 8 | Dragons by 22 | Correct result – wrong margin |
| Rabbitohs 20+ | Rabbitohs by 4 | Correct result – wrong margin |
| Titans 13+ | Titans by 10 | Correct result – wrong margin |
So I got six from eight but virtually no margins right. And the two matches I got wrong I got completely wrong!