In the three rounds that have passed since I first analysed your team’s run home, there has been a shock draw between second and second-last, a surprise packet has risen into the top four, and the race for the wooden spoon is really heating up.
I will analyse your team’s run home in two parts: here, I will look at the current top eight, while in Part 2 I will look at the teams in the bottom half of the ladder and analyse what chance they have of either making the finals or the order in which they will receive their first pick in the draft.
Fremantle
Currently first (16 wins, 2 losses, 64 competition points, 128.8%)
Matches to play: West Coast Eagles (Domain Stadium), North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Melbourne (DS), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Victory in this Sunday’s Western Derby, which shapes as the most significant and important since the Dockers entered the competition in 1995, will give Ross Lyon’s men one hand on their first ever minor premiership.
Otherwise, a first loss to the West Coast Eagles since 2012, coupled with an expected Hawthorn victory over the Geelong Cats on Saturday night, will see the race for the minor premiership go down to the wire.
After the Derby, the Dockers face North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne at home and then Port Adelaide at the Oval to conclude the regular season.
With only the Kangaroos out of the three still in finals contention, the Dockers should at least defeat the Dees and Power, and with their first two finals to be played in Perth, they will be well prepared for their September assault.
Predicted finish: first
West Coast Eagles
Currently second (13 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw, 54 competition points, 149.5%)
Matches to play: Fremantle (DS), Western Bulldogs (DS), Adelaide Crows (Oval), St Kilda (DS)
The West Coast Eagles’ top-two hopes hang in the balance following their 14-point loss to Hawthorn last Saturday night, which not only saw them fall 10 competition points in arrears of the Dockers in the race for top spot, but also saw their advantage on the Hawks reduced to a mere two competition points.
The Western Derby next week shapes as a must-win for the Eagles if they are to hang onto second spot, especially as the Hawks are expected to beat the Geelong Cats at the MCG on Saturday night.
Mark LeCras and Jeremy McGovern will miss the match through suspension and injury respectively, making their task tougher, while Nic Naitanui is no certainty to return following the sudden death of his mother in Fiji.
With the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide Crows to follow, the Eagles must deliver their best football if they are to avoid travelling in the first week of the finals series.
Predicted finish: third
Hawthorn
Currently third (13 wins, 5 losses, 52 competition points, 161.5%)
Matches to play: Geelong Cats (MCG), Port Adelaide (ES), Brisbane Lions (AU), Carlton (MCG)
Hawthorn’s gutsy win over the Eagles in Perth has seen them draw to within two competition points of their vanquished opponents.
The Hawks have the chance to replace the Eagles in the top two when they face the Cats at the MCG on Saturday night, but they must rely on the Dockers defeating the Eagles in the Derby to remain there at the end of Round 20.
After the match against the Cats, easy home assignments against Port Adelaide, the Brisbane Lions and Carlton wrap up the Hawks’ regular season.
Will it be enough for them to wrest the minor premiership away from the Dockers? Unfortunately, on the basis of Fremantle’s equally easy final three games, no.
However, it could be enough for them to secure second place, making for an easier path on the way to a third consecutive premiership.
Prediction: second
Western Bulldogs
Currently fourth (12 wins, 6 losses, 48 competition points, 117.1%)
Matches to play: Melbourne (ES), West Coast Eagles (DS), North Melbourne (ES), Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
Ten months after losing their captain, coach, CEO, and nearly 800 games of experience in the aftermath of a fourth straight season without finals, the Bulldogs find themselves in fourth place.
The Cinderella story of this year’s AFL season racked up their seventh win (against just one loss) since the Round 11 bye with a 64-point thrashing of Port Adelaide, a result which saw them overtake the Sydney Swans on the ladder.
The double chance is theirs to lose, with the only real tough assignment in the coming weeks a trip to Perth to face the Eagles in Round 21. They must also travel to Brisbane in the final round to take on likely wooden spooners the Lions.
Their other two matches in the run home are at Etihad Stadium, against Melbourne this coming Sunday, and North Melbourne in the penultimate round. While the Bulldogs are a win or two away from returning to September for the first time since 2010, percentage could play a role in whether they finish in the top four or not.
Prediction: fourth
Sydney Swans
Currently fifth (12 wins, 6 losses, 48 competition points, 112.4%)
Matches to play: Collingwood (SCG), GWS Giants (Spotless Stadium), St Kilda (ES), Gold Coast Suns (SCG)
The Sydney Swans’ 32-point loss to Geelong on Saturday night has seen them drop to fifth place on percentage, ahead of what shapes as a crucial fortnight with matches against Collingwood and the Greater Western Sydney Giants.
The Swans will be desperately hoping for a change in fortune with the match against the Pies, to whom they have lost 13 of their last 15 meetings, to be played at the SCG rather than at ANZ Stadium where the Pies built that dominance.
That is followed by a blockbuster Sydney Derby against the Giants at Spotless Stadium, a potentially tricky clash against St Kilda at Etihad Stadium, and then the Gold Coast Suns at home in the final round.
The Swans’ top-four hopes go on the line in the final month, and a loss or two could end their chance of securing the double chance for the fourth year in a row.
Their percentage – which took a battering with recent losses to Hawthorn, the West Coast Eagles and the Geelong Cats – will decide whether they travel to Perth in Week 1 of the finals, or host a sudden-death elimination final at home.
Prediction: fifth
North Melbourne
Currently sixth (11 wins, 7 losses, 44 competition points, 109%)
Matches to play: St Kilda (BA), Fremantle (ES), Western Bulldogs (ES), Richmond (ES)
Five straight wins since Round 14 have seen North Melbourne surge into the top six, and still with a chance to finish in the top four depending on how the Swans and Bulldogs fare in the final four rounds.
That winning streak should extend to six when they face St Kilda in Hobart on Saturday afternoon, and with their final three matches to be played at Etihad Stadium, the Roos can then set themselves up for a potential top-four berth.
The matches against Fremantle, the Western Bulldogs and Richmond in the final three rounds will be crucial to any chances Brad Scott’s men have of claiming the coveted double chance, but as they proved last year, they don’t need to finish that high if they are to reach another preliminary final in 2015.
Question is, will their best football continue into the final four weeks, or will they be exposed as pretenders?
Prediction: eighth.
Richmond
Currently seventh (11 wins, 7 losses, 44 competition points, 108.9%)
Matches to play: Gold Coast Suns (MCG), Collingwood (MCG), Essendon (MCG), North Melbourne (ES)
Following their 36-point loss to the Adelaide Crows at the Oval last Friday night, Richmond now find themselves having to fight for their finals berth, with their top-four hopes having taken a hit.
Although the Tigers should start favourites against the Gold Coast Suns at the MCG on Sunday, they will be wary of a team that drew with the West Coast Eagles at home and impressively defeated the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba.
The Suns have also proven to be a bogey team for the Tigers, with the fifth-year club having won three of their four meetings to date. Sunday’s meeting, however, will be the first in Melbourne and should advantage Damien Hardwick’s men.
A pair of MCG blockbusters against Collingwood and Essendon follow, before the club ends their regular season with a Friday night showdown against North Melbourne in a match that could decide who finishes higher on the ladder.
Thus, the Tigers’ finals destiny is in their hands. Win the majority of their remainders and they can enjoy a third straight season of finals, or run the risk of finishing in that all-too-familiar position of ninth.
Prediction: sixth
Geelong Cats
Currently eighth (10 wins, 7 losses, 1 no-result, 42 competition points, 104.6%)
Matches to play: Hawthorn (MCG), St Kilda (ES), Collingwood (MCG), Adelaide Crows (SS)
The Geelong Cats’ sustained era of success may not be over just yet, if the past month is anything to go by.
Four straight wins since Round 15 have seen them move into eighth on the ladder, a position they hold narrowly on percentage ahead of the Adelaide Crows who are very unlucky to be sitting in ninth by just 0.1 per cent.
A tough assignment looms on Saturday night when the Cats face Hawthorn at the MCG; having at one point won 11 matches in a row against the Hawks between 2009 and 2013, the Cats have now lost four of their last five meetings against them, dating back to the preliminary final in the latter year.
However, it only gets easier from there, with matches against St Kilda, Collingwood and the Adelaide Crows to follow in the run home. Thus, there will be no excuses for the Cats as they continue their late-season surge.
Prediction: seventh
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