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The 2015 Rugby World Cup will probably pan out like this.
Pool A
The dreaded Pool A won’t be the toughest pool. England and Australia will play well, and compete in the knockout rounds.
Wales will not. They will lose to old rival England because fitness is not enough. Then they will lose to Australia because that’s what the Welsh do when they play the Wallabies.
To complete the demise, Wales will stumble against hard-running Pacific Nations Cup-winners Fiji, whom the Dragons will play only five days after playing the Wallabies. It will be 2007 again.
Fiji is no joke. New head coach John McKee has added set piece structure to existing skills. Warren Gatland will point out that his team was without Leigh Halfpenny, Jon Davies and Rhys Webb.
But Wales will still be home, in the hills, attending ‘Homage to Tom Jones’ eisteddfods, shouting “Jones” at random strangers with a high rate of response, and going to a Catherine Zeta-Jones film festival.
England and Australia will both lose a couple of key players, because when you play Fiji, there is no safe place on the field. But Australia is peaking at just the right time, and they always get to the knockouts.
Australia has about 500 more caps in its squad than England; that will be the difference. England will have the weight of a nation imposing more pressure than an inexperienced team can handle.
Expected finish in Pool A:
1. Australia
2. England
3. Fiji
4. Wales
5. Uruguay
Pool B
By the second or third game it may be that Heyneke Meyer will finally be able to choose his preferred starting XV. There are a number of injury concerns still to overcome, but South Africa will qualify.
The only suspense is Scotland and Samoa are headed toward a battle royale on 10 October in slippery St James Park, way up north in Newcastle; as close to being a Scottish town as an English town can be.
Samoa won the last time these two teams met, back in 2013. Samoa always raise their game for the Rugby World Cup. They are finally playing a fair schedule with no midweek games and they’ve earned it.
Samoa has the perfect schedule: weak-strong-weak-strong. Scotland does not have the depth to rotate many of their players. The Scots will go into a high-stakes, high pressure showdown with Samoa without fresh players.
I see Samoa pulling off the mini-upset and joining the Springboks in the knock-out stages. Once there, Samoa has the easier path to a final; but the robust islanders will desperately need to avoid injury.
Expected finish in Pool B:
1. South Africa
2. Samoa
3. Scotland
4. Japan
5. USA
Pool C
New Zealand start out with their big Pool C test right away: Argentina at Wembley. While the All Blacks have never lost to any Pool C foe, the Pumas have played Steve Hansen’s men quite well at times in recent years.
Winning Pool C brings the dubious honour of playing the Springboks at a ground, Twickenham, where South Africa have not lost since 2006. Is a strategic loss a part of Hansen’s mind game mastery? (No).
What might be funny is if the Boks and the All Blacks both lose one on purpose to avoid each other, and end up still facing each other on the other side of the bracket. Well, is that possible?
I am personally looking forward to the 25 September clash between Argentina and Georgia at Kingsholm. We may not see a more brutal forward clash. But first, the Pumas must get healthy.
Tightheads Juan Figallo and Matias Diaz are out of the Cup; Ramiro Herrera is still rehabilitating an injured knee. Argentina will like their chances of upsetting France or Ireland in a quarter-final.
Meanwhile, Georgia has more able props than backline players. If they have beaten Tonga in the opening fixture, the grizzled men from the Caucasus may be playing for immortality: a quarter-final spot.
Is this likely? No, but if Tonga does not get their bind, engagement, and shove right, they could have a nightmare against the Lelos scrum. The Tongans’ pack is aging; did they hold on too long?
Expected finish in Pool C:
1. New Zealand
2. Argentina
3. Tonga
4. Georgia
5. Namibia
Pool D:
This pool is really all about ‘who gets to play the All Blacks or Argentina?’ Or put another way: ‘Would you like to cage-fight a hungry polar bear wearing a straightjacket rubbed in salmon sauce, or a small angry feral cat–but you get to wear gloves?’
So, France versus Ireland will be fireworks. France will be more rested, but is that an advantage? Both should reach Cardiff on October 11 undefeated. Ireland is a trendy ‘dark horse’ but I have no faith in them.
Nor do I have faith in France. In a battle between two proudly Catholic nations who both detest the English, I will go with the one that has the better rugby pedigree.
Expected finish in Pool D:
1. France
2. Ireland
3. Italy
4. Canada
5. Romania
Quarterfinals:
This adds up to a few juicy match-ups: the Boks and the hosts at Twickenham, bruising Samoa against finesse Australia, a Franco-Argentine slugfest, and an All Black side eager to put the Irish challenge to bed.
The upsets generally don’t continue deep into the tournament, but I’ll pick one: Argentina to beat France. The rest will go according to the rankings.
Semifinals:
Argentina and Australia in one semifinal; South Africa and New Zealand in the other: a mini Rugby Championship with a better trophy and television numbers. Maybe Australians would even watch.
The Wallabies, by this time, will have a defined halfback combo; Argentina will not and lacking a few props may not have a way to score on the Cheika-organised gold and green defence.
The All Blacks and Boks will duel with all their considerable might; look for this to go the way the last few Tests have gone between the old rivals: down to the wire, with one big decisive moment at the end.
Finals:
Green and gold versus gold and green; the greener team will win.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.