Fast footy, played on a neutral deck, and under lights too? Yes please! It’s the Western Bulldogs versus the Adelaide Crows in the first week of the AFL finals.
I can’t wait for Elimination Final #2, and here’s my forecast.
Let’s get the whole stadium thing out of the way here and now. Yes, it sucks for Dogs fans that this one is being played away from their team’s closed roof Hell in a Cell chamber, but the unfortunate reality is that the AFL makes more money when it schedules games at the home of football. You, of all of the fan bases, should know how crippling that place is in its current economy. Besides, the sooner the AFL flexes its muscles in the face of the stadium owners, the sooner the two can seek to reach an agreement on an early sale.
From a purely football perspective, the decision is a little unfortunate though. Etihad suits your game style, and it’s where you play all season. But, at least you aren’t playing Richmond, and are instead facing off against an interstate opponent, right?
Elimination Final #2
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide
Saturday, 12 September, 7:20EST
Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, Victoria
The Adelaide Crows are coming into the 2015 finals with the following form line.
Adelaide def. Richmond 88-52
Essendon def. by Adelaide 59-171
Adelaide def. Brisbane 131-44
Adelaide def. West Coast 126-69
Geelong def. Adelaide 119-80
That’s 4-1, with a percentage of 174 per cent. The record is probably what we all expected (although perhaps a loss to the West Coast Eagles substituted for a win against Geelong), but that percentage is pretty remarkable.
This is a team that has teased and taunted us with an offence and midfield to rival the best for the past two years, but they’ve yet to string it together on a sustained basis.
While three of those games were at their hunting ground (the Crows finished the year with a points for per game of 105 at Adelaide Oval), and a fourth on the well-suited Etihad, the pure output doesn’t lie. Adelaide scored at least 80 points in each of those games, even against the New Fremantle in Richmond, and a Geelong side that was playing on a fair dose of nostalgia. They condemned West Coast to their lowest score for the year, and put up the second highest score of the year, over this stretch.
Now let’s check out the form line of the Doggies.
Western Bulldogs def. Port Adelaide 128-64
Western Bulldogs def. Melbourne 153-55
West Coast def. Western Bulldogs 162-85
North Melbourne def. by Western Bulldogs 73-96
Brisbane Lions def. Western Bulldogs 130-122
I make that 3-2, with a percentage of 120 per cent. Unlike the Crows, this is perhaps a little under expectations, mostly driven by the loss to Brisbane (and the points conceded in that one holy moley), but also the magnitude of the loss to West Coast.
But you know what? Both sides scored close to 600 points in their final five games: Adelaide on 596 and the Dogs on 584. If mental maths ain’t your thing, 600 points in five games is very close to 120 points per game, which is two goals more than Hawthorn have put up in 2015.
Given the respective performance of both teams in recent weeks, man oh man, this could be a balls-to-the-wall game usually reserved for North Melbourne’s matches against Port Adelaide. Or, we could end up in one of those Prisoner’s dilemma type situations, where both sides decide the best way to combat their opponent is to play very defensively. We could, therefore, be set for a more dour affair, at least while we iterate around the pay-off matrix and find a new equilibrium.
What could give us the former, and equally what could condemn us to the latter? Let’s take a look.
Adelaide’s defence has been the one knock in season 2015 – and further back, if we’re being honest – with the Crows ranking dead last on Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of this year’s final eight. While at -0.1 they are effectively bang on the average, the top five on the ladder are all well into positive double digits when it comes to stopping their opponent from scoring.
This hides something very peculiar about Adelaide, though. When the Crows have conceded 80 points or less in season 2015, they have a record of 11-1 (the lone loss in the rain-affected Dangerfyfe game), while when they concede more than 80 points, they have a record of 2-7, with one of those wins coming in the emotion-charged Round 16 Showdown and the other in that strange game against Carlton in Round 10.
When they stop the opponent from scoring heavily, they tend to win. Most other sides in the top eight have a much higher defensive tolerance – the only ones that don’t are Richmond (who have won one of their eight games where the opponent has scored 80 points or more) and the Western Bulldogs (2-9 in games where they opponent scores at least 80 points).
These defensive blow outs happen in a similar fashion for both sides: lose possession, allow the ball on the outside, and free the opponent up to kick long to uncongested space. The difference between total disposals, kicks and uncontested possessions conceded in wins versus losses is strikingly similar for both teams. All told, it suggests Adelaide and the Dogs both work on a perspiration strategy, rather than inspiration in the way that, say, the Hawks or West Coast can manage.
The Bulldogs are building. (Photo: Michael Willson/AFL Media)
But the Western Bulldogs would seem to rely on the possession game more than Adelaide. The Dogs lose the disposal count by an average of 74 in losses, and win it by 38 in wins; Adelaide lose it by 44 in losses, and win by 17 in wins. That’s a +112 difference for the Dogs, versus a +61 difference to the Crows.
A lot could therefore hinge on the territory battle. Both of these sides like to play with the ball in their own half: just one of Adelaide’s eight losses have come when they have had a positive inside 50 differential, while two of the Dogs’ losses have come in games where they have won the territory battle.
The best way to get the ball in your own half is to win centre clearances, press up and earn lots of repeat inside 50 entries. But that leaves you quite exposed on the counter attack, and these two teams, from what the eyes say (#freethestats) are amongst the most explosive counter-attacking sides in the competition. Adelaide’s edge in the clearance stakes over the full course of the year (+3.7 per game, ranked third versus -0.2 for the Dogs, ranked ninth) may help in that regard.
When these two faced off in Round 4, which is a very long time ago, the game played out in a very similar way to what the total season numbers suggested it would. The Crows won the clearance battle pretty convincingly (43-34), but it didn’t translate into territory, which the Dogs dominated (63-51). Both teams played in a very open fashion, with kicks and marks pretty much equal over the course of the game.
The Dogs won the game using their early-season run-and-carry, which took the league by storm. It’s not often that a team will win the handball count and win the game by ten goals these days (handball count is, increasingly, a sign that a team is struggling to move the ball forward), but if anyone can do it, it was these early season Doggies.
At 172 per game, the Western Bulldogs average the second most handballs in victories in the competition (behind Sydney at 186), while when they lose they average just 153 – ranked 13the. No other team has such a dramatic difference in their ranking. All things being equal, more handballs equals more handball receives, making this a very clear strength to be wary of, but also weakness to exploit, for Adelaide.
It makes the match ups off the Bulldogs’ half back line quite important. Robert Murphy and Matthew Boyd become critical players for the Crows to match up on, and leaves them with an interesting dilemma: sacrifice the scoreboard impact of a player like Charlie Cameron, or trust the midfield to stop the run and carry. Given the way Adelaide have tried to play in 2015, I suspect it will be the latter.
So who wins it? Adelaide have been in irresistible form over the past five weeks, notwithstanding last weekend’s hiccup against the Cats. If they had won that game, they would be entering the finals as the undisputed hottest team in the league – I still think they are, though. It could be a race to 80, rather than a race to 100 as the heuristic implies.
The player on player match ups through the middle of the group look delicious from here. Dangerfield on Stringer. Wallis on Thompson. Dahlhaus on Sloane. Here’s hoping both coaches stick to a man game plan through there – because it could be electric.
Stop stalling, you say? Fine. My head tells me it will be a really tight match, almost too hard to pick. So I will rely a little bit on the gut, and pick the Crows to get over the line by six points. Finals don’t tend to finish that tight, but this one has all the hallmarks of a classic.
That’s my second elimination finals forecast, what’s yours?
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