The NBL regular season is over, and Thursday night at 7:30pm (AEDT), all eyes turn on Hisense Arena in Melbourne for the beginning of an enthralling finals series. In the first semi-finals, it’s Melbourne United taking on the New Zealand Breakers.
Despite finishing first at the end of what has been the best NBL regular season in recent memory, United could argue they have a more difficult challenge in their semi-final series than the team finishing second, the Perth Wildcats.
With a trip to New Zealand in the works for United, the Breakers really only finished fourth due to two ordinary patches throughout their season. The first came early on, before the return of Corey Webster, the second during the middle of the season, when they had a tough stretch of games. Other than those two patches, the Breakers had a pretty damn good season.
New Zealand have been in decent form heading into the finals, because they had to be. Their qualification went all the way down to the last round of the season, and much before that it looked for all money like the Adelaide 36ers would take the fourth and final spot.
Finishing the regular season with a record of 16 wins and 12 losses, they ended up two games ahead of the 36ers, but that gap was made in the last round.
United of course started the season with nine straight wins, before stumbling their way through the middle stretch. They enter the finals in strong form though, despite a loss in their last game. The middle patch of the season will still worry them, knowing their shooting and mojo in attack could go cold at a moment’s notice.
Much of that run was on the road as well, but carried momentum back home. Could that be a factor if they lose the second game in New Zealand?
Regardless, United held onto the minor premiership, taking it by winning the season series over Perth, after finishing with the same record – 18 wins and 10 losses.
Will they regret taking the series, and playing the Breakers instead of the Illawarra Hawks? Tough to say, but I am leaning towards the answer being yes.
Just how much influence does last week have, and will United regret resting starters?
In Round 19, the last of the regular season, the Breakers walked away with a pair of victories against their semi-final opponents.
As such, New Zealand take the momentum into the series, putting more pressure on this first game for United. With a trip across the ditch for the second, United cannot afford to go one game down.
In their first match of Round 19, United rested a number of stars – with Chris Goulding, Hakim Warrick and Daniel Kickert all staying in Melbourne – and the Breakers won by 37.
The second match was a low-scoring, scrappy affair. The United stars returned to the court but still couldn’t get the job done, as the Breakers walked away with a two-point victory in what was essentially a dead-rubber match.
The Breakers are the play-off kings
New Zealand have won all of their last nine play-off matches. The run goes back to the 2011-12 play-off series, where even though they lost two matches, they still won the championship against the Perth Wildcats.
Last season, and in 2012-13, they won all four of their games to win the championship, while in 2013-14 they missed the finals completely.
Still, when they do make it they tend to impress, and not waste the opportunity.
How difficult is it to play in New Zealand?
Extremely.
The Breakers have won 11 of their 14 matches at home this year. Melbourne have had a horrific run over there as well, losing their two matches by a combined total of 48 points. With momentum already favoured towards the Breakers, there is a hell of a lot riding on this first game.
Holt and Goudling versus Webster and Cedric Jackson
Oh, what a mouth-watering battle this is! Four of the best guards in the competition square off in what could well decide the series.
Webster is second in the league for scoring, while Jackson is leading for assists. Jackson has also been shooting the lights out in recent weeks, and is a huge part of the reason the Breakers got to the finals.
Holt meanwhile, is fifth in the league for assists, and is in good form with his shot. Goulding of course, is one of the most capable shooters in the league, and while he has had an up-and-down season, it won’t take him long to get going.
Which team’s inconsistency will flare?
Both teams have had inconsistent patches during the year, with the Breakers early on and then again just after the New Year, while United looked like a different team during the second third of the year, after winning nine straight to kick things off.
With both teams able to go cold in a hurry, a five-minute burst could be enough to turn this whole series on its head.
The influence, and experience of Hakim Warrick
United coach Dean Demopoulos has been criticised widely throughout the year for not giving Warrick more minutes. And oh boy is it with good reason.
Warrick has been coming off the bench for the most part, and is likely to be named Sixth Man of the Year, but in the limited minutes he has had, he has proven been one of the best in the NBL.
His experience and influence can’t be underestimated either as some young guns, like Nate Tomlinson or Chris Patton, have had much improved years.
Warrick seems to draw defence when he is on the court, and is a prominent figure on his own defensive end. A big part of winning for the Breakers will be shutting down Warrick.
Fixtures (all times AEDT)
Game 1: Thursday, February 18, 7:30pm at Hisense Arena, Melbourne
Game 2: Saturday, February 20, 5:30pm at Vector Arena, Auckland
Game 3: Friday, February 26, 7:30pm at Hisense Arena, MelbourneMelbourne United Squad
Likely starters
Stephen Holt, Chris Goulding, Todd Blanchfield, Daniel Kickert, Majok MajokBench: Chris Patton, Hakim Warrick, Brad Hill, Owen Odigie, Nate Tomlinson, Tohi Smith-Milner, Emmanuel Golgong, Kyle Adnam
(Injured: Igor Hadziomerovic)New Zealand Breakers Squad
Likely starters
Cedric Jackson, Corey Webster, Thomas Abercrombie, Mika Vukona, Charles JackonsBench: Alex Pledger, Tai Wesley, Reuben Te Rangi, Everard Bartlett, Shane McDonald, Shea Ili
So, what is going to happen?
The Breakers have all the experience when it comes to finals series, and how to win these games. Game 1, will probably decide whether Melbourne can win the series, because there is no way they are winning across the Tasman.
We should get back to a Game 3, but the Breakers – with Corey Webster leading the way, and heaps of depth coming off the bench – should have the goods to get the job done.
It will be an enthralling series either way.
Tune in tomorrow for a comprehensive preview of the Perth Wildcats and Illawarra Hawks series and remember, The Roar will carry live coverage of each and every game throughout the finals.
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde
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