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Hello Roarers and welcome back to another week of expert tips! Round 5 shapes as a very promising round of footy with just about every match up having the potential to surprise and entertain, and little to be found in the way of clear cut tipping decisions.
After a thrilling win on Saturday night over the Swans, the Adelaide Crows this week travel to face Hawthorn at the MCG in a match that will be a real test of their top four aspirations.
The Crows have been one of the most impressive teams in the league so far this season and their forward line is one of only a few in the league that can arguably go toe to toe with that of the Hawks, so we should see a lot of goals kicked.
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The worry for the Hawks is that their scoring has actually been way down this year with the absence of Jarryd Roughead no doubt playing a part in that.
They only narrowly got over the line against St Kilda last week, and the Bulldogs the week before that, after a loss to Geelong in Round 1. Were it not for a few twists of fate, they could be 1-3 and having more serious questions asked of them.
The Hawks aren’t the kind of team who put too many bad weeks together very often but they wouldn’t necesarilly have to put in a poor effort here to get beaten by a red-hot Adelaide, which is what I’m tipping will happen.
This match will be followed up by another very appealing contest between Sydney and West Coast. It’s quite hard to pick the winner here – West Coast were the better team last year, but Sydney have started this season in better form.
Due to the home ground advantage and the Lance Franklin factor I’m tipping the Swans, but a strong case could be made in favour of either side and this will tell us a lot about both teams’ premiership chances.
Gold Coast vs North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane, Port Adelaide vs Geelong and St Kilda vs GWS are all fixtures where there are logical favourites but it’s hard to tip with any confidence.
North are 4-0 on top of the ladder at the moment but have lost their last three matches to Gold Coast, the Bulldogs are clearly ahead of the Lions but come in with several key injuries, Port Adelaide are close to unreadable at this stage and Geelong aren’t a lot better, while the Saints and the Giants are both coming off very impressive peformances last week.
I’ve gone with the favourites in each – North, the Bulldogs, Geelong and GWS – but I will be a little surprised if at least one of these doesn’t prove to be an upset. I can’t for the life of me figure out which.
Richmond and Collingwood, probably the two most under-pressure teams in the competition face potential disasters this weekend. Richmond are coming in as the underdogs to an impressive Melbourne, while Collingwood could be in for an ANZAC Day nightmare against the top-up Bombers.
Maybe I’ve got a little too much willingess to embrace potential schaudenfreude here but I’m tipping both the Dees and the Dons to get the job done. Both of these teams are playing with more application and tenacity than their opponents lately and if they keep that up they will win.
Astute readers will be aware that my Lock of the Week, Gold Coast over Brisbane last week, turned out to be not so much of a lock as I was planning for it to be. What can I say folks, when you’re right 52 per cent of the time, you’re wrong 48 per cent of the time!
This week – and I can hardly believe I’m doing it – but I’m putting the lock on a winless Fremantle to get their first victory of the year over Carlton. The Dockers didn’t get the win last week against North but looked much improved and I think at home they should be no risk of dropping their bundle against the Blues.
Don’t think of it as me tipping for winless Fremantle. Think of it as me tipping against winless Carlton.
Michael di Fabrizio
What a challenging week to tip! All over, you’ve got fairly even match-ups. Hawthorn vs Adelaide, Sydney vs West Coast, Melbourne vs Richmond, to name a few.
A couple of others I’ve thrown in: Gold Coast vs North Melbourne and Collingwood vs Essendon. Followers of my weekly power rankings will know I don’t have much separating these sides at the moment.
After tossing up both, I went with the Suns out of home ground advantage and the fact they’re coming off a loss, which might have put some expectations back in check. I wouldn’t say I’m overly confident, though. Given the two teams, this will be another high-scoring game, and North’s shootout form has been getting the job done in 2016.
On Anzac Day, I’ve gone with more pain for the Pies. It’s far from an obvious tip, in fact I’d say it’s a genuine toss-up, but Collingwood’s woes right now set the scene for a disappointing outcome on Monday.
BJ Conkey
Adelaide were superb against the Swans last week and stood up to the pressure. Hawthorn at the MCG is a different proposition though, as the Crows found out in a semi-final last year.
The Crows have averaged an impressive 121 points per game but I expect Hawthorn’s defence to stand up to the test.
Sydney and West Coast should be a cracking contest and will be interesting for the simple fact of seeing Lewis Jetta and Callum Sinclar against their former clubs.
While the Eagles had a big win over the Swans at the end of last season, the SCG has become a bit of a fortress for Sydney and the Swans will be battle-hardened after a thrilling game against Adelaide.
Richmond has conceded 423 points in four games, which says it all really. Melbourne has remained consistent so far this year, which is what their supporters have been crying out for. For the first time in a long time there’s plenty of players chipping in for goals and captain Nathan Jones is as inspirational as ever.
Bookies have this as an even money bet but I think that’s being generous after the Tigers performance last round.
We saw how long Essendon kept pace with Geelong last week. Low scoring contests suit the Bombers and the longer they can go toe-to-toe with Collingwood the more nervous the Magpies players will get.
It really is a make or break week for Collingwood. The ramifications of losing are massive and it is for this reason alone that I have to give Collingwood one more chance.
| Round 5 | BJ Conkey | Michael | Josh | The Crowd |
| HAW v ADL | HAW | HAW | ADL | HAW |
| SYD v WCE | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| GCS v NTM | NTM | GCS | NTM | NTM |
| WB v BL | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| PA v GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| STK v GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| FRE v CAR | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE |
| MEL v RIC | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| COL v ESS | COL | ESS | ESS | COL |
| Last round | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Total | 26 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
Crowd tipping has closed for the week. Join us again ahead of Round 6.