Round 9 of the AFL is upon us. What are the best games, and who are the best bets for the round?
Hawthorn versus Sydney (MCG)
Match of the round on a Friday night. I can’t go past the Hawks in this one. Sydney lost me by trying to score (when they had a five-point lead) in the last minute against Richmond last week.
A Tigers’ turnover resulted in the Swans losing the game by a solitary point. What happened to chipping the ball around? Maintain possession. Milk the clock. Isn’t that the modern footy mantra when you’re in the lead with seconds to go?
No doubt, the Hawks have had a really tough week with news of teammate Jarryd Roughead’s, latest medical setback, but with Roughie likely to be at the game, the Hawks will get this one done for him. Cyril Rioli is back from family leave. Under Friday night lights at the MCG, Hawks win. Hawthorn – 1-39.
Collingwood versus Geelong (MCG)
The first game on Saturday afternoon and Collingwood will come back down to earth with an almighty thud after their mauling of the Brisbane Lions.
The Pies aren’t back – not yet anyway. It’s just that Brisbane didn’t show up. The Cats are flag favourites, and deservedly so. They have the healthiest percentage of any team in the league (166.7).
Sitting in second place, one game behind top-of-the-table North Melbourne, they’re patiently waiting for the Roos to drop a game. When they do, that percentage will be gold! The Cats win this one, and win it quite well. Geelong 25+
Gold Coast versus Adelaide (Metricon Stadium)
Even a home game won’t help the Suns from another thrashing, this time at the hands of the Crows. Skipper Gary Ablett is facing a concussion test after a head knock late in last week’s game.
He probably won’t play. Adam Saad is definitely out with a hamstring injury. Look, the Suns have been desperately unlucky, completely riddled with injuries since last season. I feel for them. I really do.
Their best players, and they have some exceptional talent, have been sidelined for extended periods. No team can win consistently, or even compete under those circumstances. That said, after their 91-point loss to GWS last weekend, the team attempted to de-stress and regroup by going “paintballing” on Monday.
Last time I checked, paintballing has the potential to cause some serious injuries and bruising. Surely, it can’t be a club-approved activity? The troops are down and wounded enough as it is.
Why send the ones you have left into battle to shoot each other with an air gun loaded with paint balls.
It’s the strangest recovery (character-building) session I’ve ever heard of, especially for a team desperately struggling with football-related injuries. The Crows win this one – easily! I’m probably being kind with the margin I’ve set here. Adelaide – 60+
Port Adelaide versus West Coast Eagles (Adelaide Oval)
West Coast are coming off a home ground, 103-point annihilation against a stunned and stagnant St Kilda. travelling is the Eagles’ downfall. It’s a hump they must get over in order to get to, and win, finals footy.
This game should be the start of those away victories for the Eagles. Josh Kennedy’s partner, Lauren, is heavily pregnant, so he hasn’t flown to Adelaide with the team. Unless the baby makes an appearance on Friday, he’ll likely miss this one.
I’m confident the Eagles have plenty of talent across the ground to get the win without him. West Coast Eagles – 25+
North Melbourne versus Carlton (Etihad Stadium)
North went to sleep against Essendon in the second half last week. After a 50-point half-time lead, they only just got away with a 14-point win. It was as good as a loss, and the match should have been reviewed that way. It probably was.
If the game went for another ten minutes, the Bombers surely would have snatched it. This week, the Roos take on the Blues. However, Carlton have two big outs.
Levi Casboult (fractured leg) and ruckman, Matthew Kreuzer (knee injury) will both miss a month or more with their respective leg injuries. Patrick Cripps got a heavy knock last week. Additionally, he’s been cleared of a knee injury. He’ll play. But, will he play sore?
No doubt, Carlton have been gallant of late, winning four on the trot. No one predicted that. They’ve clearly turned a corner. That said, their winning streak stops with this match. North to win quite easily, thus continuing their unbeaten record.
After last week’s poor second half, North will put the foot down and play out the game to the dying seconds. Unfortunately, Carlton will be on the receiving end of players who’ve had a harsh reality check by their coach. North Melbourne – 40+
Fremantle versus Richmond (Domain Stadium)
Richmond are coming off an after-the-siren, awe-inspiring one-point win over the Swans. They jump on a plane and travel west to meet the winless Dockers on their home turf. Matthew Pavlich was rested last week.
He’ll be back for this one. Despite losing to Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium in Tasmania, Fremantle were competitive for most of that game. Richmond’s tails will be up, but the home ground advantage will be the difference in the end. I can see this game being Fremantle’s first win of the season.
It’s going to be a wet and wild day though, with 10-20mm of rain expected. It’ll be a scrap, but the Dockers have a real chance to finally get a win on the board here. Fremantle – 1-39
Melbourne versus Brisbane (MCG)
After not scoring until the 14-minute mark of the second quarter against Collingwood last week, many have labelled that performance, or lack thereof, as the worst in recent history, by any team! I agree.
There’s no excuse for lack of effort. Right now, Brisbane are showing no heart, no effort and no skill. Even their reserves are getting thrashed. Where’s the depth? There is none! Player retention is going to be a real problem for both Queensland teams if these despicable performances keep getting dished up.
Melbourne are coming off an honourable loss against the Western Bulldogs. It’s not a question of Melbourne winning. The question is, what will the margin be? With skipper Tom Rockliff and Dayne Beams out, this game could get very, very ugly.
The only saving grace that Brisbane can hope for is rain. So far, it’s not predicted. Melbourne – 60+
GWS versus Western Bulldogs (Spotless Stadium)
The Western Bulldogs are good. They’re real good. However, GWS look like a better team this week. On home turf, they’ll stop the Doggies barking, sending them home with their tails between their legs.
Matthew Boyd and Jack Redpath will both sit this game out after the MRP gave them a week’s suspension for rough play.
They’re two big losses for the Doggies. It’s also their first time travelling interstate for the season. Both teams play a frantically fast game. They’re both goal-scoring machines. It’ll be interesting to see which team has the ability to shut the other one down, but with Boyd and Redpath ruled out, and on their home deck, GWS are the stronger team.
I’m really looking forward to this game. GWS – 25+
St Kilda versus Essendon (Etihad Stadium)
Last game of the round and St Kilda are coming off a 103-point loss to the Eagles. No one expected that, least of all the Saints! This loss was one of those bizarre footy moments that must be wiped from the slate.
It just can’t be explained. They’re not that bad. If the playing group can shake it off quickly, putting that triple-point belting behind them, they’ll beat Essendon. The Bombers will go in believing they can win this one though. They’re not the easy beats everyone thought them to be. They don’t give up. They keep going.
There’s something to be said for playing out a full game, despite the numbers on the scoreboard. It’s the very reason why Bombers fans gave their team a standing ovation last weekend, despite losing to top-of-the-table, North Melbourne.
Essendon didn’t give up. That type of grunt, spunk and spirit deserves to be applauded, even if they don’t take away the four points. St Kilda – 1-39.
Best bets
We’ll be starting with $400 in the bank, here’s where we’re putting our cash.
Best AFL multi – Geelong (H2H), North Melbourne (H2H), Greater Western Sydney (H2H), Adelaide 40+, Melbourne 40+ – $6.99 @ $100 = $699.
Best player disposal double – Cameron Guthrie (Geelong) – $1.54 into Rory Sloane (Adelaide) – $1.89 (both to get 25 or more disposals) – $2.91 @ $100 = $291.
Highest margin – It’s a toss up between Gold Coast versus Adelaide ($3.50) and Melbourne versus Brisbane ($5.50). I can’t see any other game beating these two. It’s worth putting $50 on each possibility. The most you’ll win is $175. The least you’ll win is $75.
Most goals – Can’t go past Jesse Hogan ($6) and Josh Jenkins ($7). They’re worth $50 bucks on both of them. I think they’ve got it wrapped up. If you have some left over cash, it’s worth looking at both of them for 6+ in their individual matches too. The weak opposition gives them both a great chance to kick a bag.
Good Luck, punters!
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We’re taking a look at one player from each team that needs to make a difference this week, starting with the ANZAC Day games.
