When the national swimming championships were held earlier this year, Australian sports fans had good reason to sit back, smile and at long last be confident that the Dolphins might get to swim away with a swag of gold medals.
Cam McEvoy, Mitch Larkin and the sisters Campbell were said to have near locks on gold medals. Throw in Emily Seebohn and Mack Horton, plus the near frightening 4×100 women’s freestyle relay and there was talk of Australia being the favourites for seven golds: The 100m men’s freestyle, the 100m women’s freestyle, 4x100m women’s freestyle relay, 100m men’s backstroke, 200m men’s backstroke and then with a bit of luck they could also sneak a gold out of the women/men’s 50m freestyle, 400m freestyle/1500m freestyle or a medley relay, or an individual women’s backstroke if Seebohm had a bit of luck go her way.
But, that was before the rest of the world had their trials and started to bank some times. Let’s have a look at where Australia still ranks in these events.
100m men’s freestyle
Cam McEvoy is still the quickest for the year by an astonishing seven tenths of a second, with Nathan Adrian leading the chase pack.
Verdict: McEvoy is still the favourite, but he’s going to have to replicate his national championship swim to make sure of it. We all remember Magnussen.
100m women’s freestyle
Well, there is literally no better way for Cate Campbell to silence any (if there was any to begin with) debate about her place as favourite in the event than by lowering a supersuit world record.
Verdict: She’d win this race swimming breaststroke. Start warming the vocal chords for our anthem.
4x100m women’s freestyle
Other regions have swum good times, and other countries have some fast swimmers. Make no mistake, the Australian women are seriously quick. Three in the top five for the world, all four in the top ten. Yeouch.
Verdict: Australia Post may as well start a print run on the stamps now.
100m men’s backstroke
Mitch Larkin has slipped to third in the ranks since the nationals, with David Plummer from the US .4 seconds ahead of him. In fact, he’s surrounded by a swathe of Americans, and knowing their history in this event…
Verdict: Will be on the podium for sure, and hopefully on the top of it if he replicates his 2015 form.
200m men’s backstroke
Larkin has seen off all the other national championships and stays on top, but Ryan Murphy all but matched his time.
Verdict: Same as the 100m.
400m men’s freestyle
Mack Horton swam an epic time in Australia to be the 3rd fastest of all time. We knew it was quick, but we knew Sun Yang had yet to swim. Well, Horton is 2 seconds ahead of Sun, who still hasn’t recaptured his 2013 form.
Verdict: Every chance to get gold, in fact this presents his best chance. While we waxed lyrically over his 1500m race (swimming a sub 14:40), Italian Gregorio Paltrinieri swam the second-fastest time in history with a 14:34 (just edging Hackett). Wow.
100m and 200m women’s backstroke
Seebohm is the joint fastest in the 100m, and behind Belinda Hocking in the 200m. She’s probably got a bit more in the tank for the 200m.
Verdict: She’s every chance for gold, and proved last year that she can perform strongly on the big stage in a solo swim.
50m women’s freestyle
Cate Campbell is still way faster than anyone else, but this race is a complete lottery most times. Bronte Campbell is fifth fastest in the world and the defending world champ.
Verdict: Australia have two legit chances, which is seriously awesome, but this could go to anyone on their day.
200m women’s butterfly
Madeline Groves swam a cracker in Adelaide, and no one has managed to beat it. Only two women are below the 2.06 time as well.
Verdict: A bonafide chance. Definitely the favourite.
Final verdict
Australia stunned most last year in Kazan with their better-than-expected haul. Their performances in the national championships proved it wasn’t a fluke. While some chances aren’t as solid as they once were (Mitch Larkin), others have subsequently found themselves in the position of race favourite.
I’m tipping that Australia will win the following: 100m men’s free, 100 women’s free, men’s 400m free, 4×100 women’s free, men’s 200m backstroke, women’s 200m backstroke, with genuine chances in the men’s 100m backstroke, women’s 50m freestyle, 200 women’s butterfly.
Six golds, with the potential for nine, plus a swag of minor medals. It’s not looked this good in both genders since Athens.
Can’t wait.
LeBron James is going back to the Olympics for the first time in 12 years. Steph Curry is headed to the games for the…
Olyroos coach Tony Vidmar is refusing to put a line through Nestory Irankunda's hopes of playing at the Paris Olympics after claiming he is…
The 2023-24 NBA season promised so much for the Australian contingent - for a few it’s been the ideal runway to the Paris Olympics…
Basketball superstar Lauren Jackson has been included in the extended Opals squad for the Paris Olympics, despite announcing her retirement from the international scene.…
The Brisbane Olympics stadiums fiasco has had wild twists and turns in just the last few days, but we still might not have seen…
Olympic swimming legend and Australian Sports Commission boss Kieren Perkins has warned that "someone will die" if a multi-sport event that allows athletes to…
