Last week was a case of close but no cigar for this column with seven correct tips out of eight. Although there are only four matches in Round 18 that doesn’t mean getting the whole lot will be any easier as Origin plays havoc with the squads.
Let’s check out Round 18.
Eels v Roosters
In Round 17 the Eels got off to a flying start against the Sharks only for a determined Cronulla outfit to mow Parramatta down and grab the two points. But there were plenty of positive signs for the Eels, especially young gun hat-trick hero Bevan French.
The mid-season acquisition of Jeff Robson is a great pick up for the Eels. He was superb in Wentworthville’s drought-breaking victory over the Panthers last Sunday (Robson’s first game for the club this season and their first win in eight rounds) and his role at halfback allows Kenny Edwards to focus on his damaging running game while Tim Mannah’s return further boosts their forward stocks.
The Roosters were incredibly unlucky against the Dogs, not the least part due to some unfavourable calls in their 24-20 defeat. Mitchell Pearce was superb and if he produces another master class he could well guide the Roosters to their fourth win of the season.
Tip: Eels 1-12
Dogs v Tigers
The Dogs scrapped home against the Roosters in controversial fashion, but managed to record three consecutive victories for the first time in 2016 by doing so. Statistically Canterbury is solid, ranking fifth in both attack and defence. While they may appear disjointed at times they typically do enough to get the job done. Origin has also had very little impact on the club with Josh Jackson the sole representative.
The Tigers on the other hand are heavily impacted by origin. Captain Aaron Woods, hooker Robbie Farah and their game breaking fullback James Tedesco are all massive absentees for this match. The Tigers have been excellent recently and need to stick to their strength to win this game that means they need to play creatively and by utilising as much second phase play as possible to tire out the Dogs’ huge forward pack.
The Dogs defeated the Tigers 36-4 a little over a month ago and hold an 8-2 winning record over the club in recent times.
Tip: Dogs 1-12
Panthers v Sharks
The Panthers lacked execution in the Round 17 loss to the Tigers, allowing several golden chances to quite literally slip out of their hands. They will be desperate to make amends having blown an early 12 point lead but with Matt Moylan now out of the squad that becomes a more arduous task.
The Panthers nearly beat the Sharks in Round 8 going down 20-18 but it is important to note just how different that side was. With halves pairing of Jamie Soward and Te Maire Martin, Peta Hiku in the centres and the aforementioned Matt Moylan steering the ship from the back Penrith were close to their full strength roster – all of those players are missing for this match.
Cronulla have their own lengthy list of absentees. Paul Gallen, Wade Graham, Jack Bird, Andrew Fifita and James Maloney are all significant losses. That said their replacements are more than capable including Nu Brown, touted as a prodigy. The concern for their Sharks is their forward depth and in particular the size of their pack.
Winning is contagious but with reasonable home form this season and a big forward pack the Panthers might just sneak home.
Tip: Panthers 1-12
Raiders v Cowboys
The Raiders got out of jail in Round 17 against a gutsy Knights outfit. Canberra showed great spirit themselves to come back from a 22-0 deficit but being in that position against Newcastle is unacceptable in the first place. The Raiders only loose Josh Papalii for this clash, who would have been selected for Origin if not for injury.
The Cowboys line-up has been decimated by origin and injury. For this clash they are missing Johnathan Thurston, Michael Morgan, James Tamou, Matt Scott, Justin O’Neil, Kane Linnett and Gavin Cooper. Quite simply there is too much class missing from this team to knock over the Raiders in Canberra. It is however very likely and characteristic of the Cowboys to stay competitive throughout the 80 minutes.
Tip: Raiders 1-12
Last week’s tips – 7/8, running tip total 83/126
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