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The struggling Reds are playing for pride as they host competition favourites the Chiefs. Catch all the Super Rugby action on The Roar from 7:45pm (AEST).
Coming off a vital win against the Crusaders last week, the Chiefs leapfrogged the Christchurch outfit into top spot in the New Zealand conference, with only three losses for the year.
Despite their position at the pointy end of the standings, the Chiefs aren’t home and hosed just yet.
With one of the tightest Kiwi races in years, the top four sides in the conference are all within one game of each other, and one slip can be the difference between top qualifying position and missing out on the finals.
At the opposite end of the spectrum though we have the Reds.
With just three wins to their name this year, the Queenslanders are long gone from the finals equation.
A mixed bag in the last few weeks, including a win over the Sunwolves, a loss to the Brumbies and a bye, means the Reds are possibly in their best form of the season. It’s hard to tell.
Surprisingly, the Reds just edge out the Chiefs in the historical standings, having won ten and lost nine since their first game in 1996, as well as holding a five and four positive record against the Chiefs in Brisbane.
Team news
Reds coaching duo Matt O’Connor and Nick Stiles have made a couple of changes from last week’s side, including a starting debut.
Not exactly a Super Rugby starting debut for former Waratah and Wallaby lock Kane Douglas, but he gets his first run-on start for the Reds after his one game back from a knee injury suffered at last year’s World Cup.
The other movement in the match-day squad is the absence of five-eighth Jake McIntyre. The 22-year-old has succumbed to an ankle injury suffered in last week’s loss to the Brumbies.
Duncan Paia’aua, who came on at halftime last week for the aforementioned McIntyre injury, will slot into the starting XV at flyhalf.
Chiefs coach Dave Rennie has made changes left, right and centre as he prepares his side for the coming weeks.
In the halves, Aaron Cruden slots in at five-eighth after recovering from a neck injury, pairing up with Tawera Kerr-Barlow in at halfback in a direct swap with Brad Weber, who has been shuffled to the bench.
Big return for former Chiefs captain Liam Messam onto the reserves bench, with the 144-game veteran making his comeback after failing to make the Rio Olympics squad for the New Zealand sevens side.
Other big changes include All Blacks workhorse Brodie Retallick being rested. Interesting side note, Retallick has nearly played as many Tests for New Zealand (50) as Super Rugby matches (59).
Co-captain Sam Cane will make a rare move to No.8, as Tom Sanders wears the No.6 jersey, which in turn forces Taleni Seu to pack into the second row.
Lachlan Boshier will make his first Super Rugby run-on start at openside flanker, benefitting from the Cane switch.
The front row isn’t safe either, with prop Hiroshi Yamashita being dropped and hooker Hika Elliot demoted to the bench, being replaced by Atu Moli and Nathan Harris respectively.
Prediction
Chiefs. The Chiefs will win.
It’s hard to get behind the Reds, and the Chiefs are probably the worst team they could have come up against at this point, with confidence low.
In contrast, the New Zealanders who can cement their standing at the top of the crowded table with a big win.
Chiefs to win by 38.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.