There have been plenty of think pieces about how Nico Rosberg has blown his chance at winning the Formula One drivers’ world championship this year, and why Lewis Hamilton has one hand firmly gripping the trophy.
Given the form of the last few years, it’s a fair position to take.
I’d argue that Hamilton is likely going to win his fourth drivers’ title and join Sebastian Vettel as the most accomplished driver of the current era.
However, where I disagree with recent scuttlebutt is the suggestion that the threat from Rosberg is now muted.
So for the believers, and to the dreamers, here’s a rebuttal to the Rosberg eulogisers.
Some are comparing this season to 2014, where Hamilton took a similar lead into the summer break and emerged on the other side with a dominant end to the year.
I’m not even pinning my hopes that Rosberg will challenge Hamilton and give the fans a close title contest on the fact that Hamilton has to take an engine penalty in the coming races; he’s stated it’ll most likely come at Spa or Monza, and all things considered he’ll probably come from last to finish on the podium.
Hamilton’s early run of start-line misfortune and technical gremlins has thankfully ceased, and the two are back on a level playing field. If you dissect the season so far and look for trends of form, it’s tempting to look at the Spanish Grand Prix as the turning point. Certainly, in terms of points, it makes sense; in terms of performance on the track there are a few other factors to consider.
It’s easy to look at the result from the Austrian Grand Prix and see Hamilton’s name in the win column and move on, yet we forget that the mid-race safety car gave Rosberg the optimal race strategy and the lead, and only a technical problem with his brakes brought Hamilton to within striking distance of the race leader (and we all remember what happened after that).
I struggle to believe that anyone genuinely feels that Daniel Ricciardo didn’t deserve to win at the Monaco Grand Prix, and wouldn’t have claimed a comfortable victory if his team hadn’t forgotten what tyres were. It’s worth remembering too that Hamilton was only able to pull up behind the leader because Rosberg let him through earlier in the race.
Just as Hamilton got his nose in front of Rosberg in the points tally we headed to Germany, where the local boy had a technical issue that disrupted his first run in Q3 (just as Hamilton had in Monaco) and yet he recovered with a stonking lap for pole that blew everybody else out of the water.
Even if his botched start cost him the lead and a dodgy penalty cost him a place on the podium, his rivals can ignore Rosberg’s potential in qualifying at their own peril.
The only real blemish on Hamilton’s performance post-Barcelona was the European Grand Prix in Baku, where he was all at sea in qualifying and found himself on the wrong side of an engine setting and the radio ban regulations. Still, use of the radio to fix a legitimate issue with his car cost Rosberg a podium finish only two races before the regulations were scrapped.
It’s just another example of how Rosberg’s form deserved the recognition of a podium finish and the reward of additional points.
So hypothetically, if you take away a few wins from Hamilton, and give a few more points to Rosberg here and there, it quickly closes the championship gap.
I know that this isn’t how championships (nor indeed the fabric of space and time) works, but it shows that the points turnaround does not correlate to a skill deficit on Nico’s part.
If talent alone translated into championship points, what a very different sport F1 would be.
Rosberg has been terrible in the rain, and needs to work on getting his tyres and brakes up to temperature in wet conditions; something that Hamilton has done effortlessly this season. He also needs to get on top of whatever start issue he had in Germany, just as Hamilton has done, to ensure he is a threat from pole position.
The prevailing theory suggests that Hamilton will be flying from Abu Dhabi to Monaco with another drivers’ championship trophy in his carry-on, if not even. But anyone who cares about having the title race remain a good fight for long into the season as possible shouldn’t be losing sleep just yet.
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