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Given victories for both the Penrith Panthers and Gold Coast Titans over the weekend, while the Wests Tigers and New Zealand Warriors both suffered losses – the top eight is all but decided.
Mathematically it can still change, but realistically that isn’t going to happen. The Panthers, unless there is a huge, and I mean huge, change in for-and-against are going to be in, while the Titans only need one more competition point to confirm qualification.
Even then the Warriors or Tigers would need to win both of their matches, and that, frankly, seems a little unlikely.
The last couple of weeks have some enthralling clashes, and none bigger than the Titans vs Panthers next weekend, but that match now it seems won’t decide much more than who finishes seventh and eighth.
The Warriors also play the Tigers next weekend. If the Titans lose, then the loser keeps their finals hopes alive.
For what it’s worth, here is how I reckon the first week of finals will look:
– Melbourne Storm (1st) vs North Queensland Cowboys (4th)
– Cronulla Sharks (2nd) vs Canberra Raiders (3rd)
– Canterbury Bulldogs (5th) vs Gold Coast Titans (8th)
– Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers (7th)
Is 5th or 6th better than 3rd or 4th – and can anyone win the competition from outside the top four?
It’s actually worth asking the question. Statistically, teams don’t win from outside the top four, but I’m not convinced that will continue to be the case this season.
Is it worth finishing fourth for example to face a trip to Melbourne and likely lose any and all momentum before having to play in the second week anyway against any of the sides in the eight?
I’m not saying it’s favourable to not have a second chance, but is it really worth it? A trip to Melbourne right at the moment is a certain loss.
Why not play at home, build momentum and then hit the road in the second week against a team that for your own team’s sake has hopefully been hammered against either the Sharks or Storm during the first week.
Sam Kasiano shouldn’t play again this season
I’ve been a little bit quiet around the site on this issue because, in truth, I have been making up my mind on what I thought.
Having reviewed the footage over and over again I can only come to one conclusion – Kasiano lashed out and kicked Corey Parker in the face.
Now, whether he actually meant to get Parker where he got him is something we will never know unless Kasiano comes out and says ‘yep, meant to break his jaw’ which is never going to happen.
Regardless, it doesn’t matter if he wants to claim it as an accident or not – it happened, he lashed out and Parker ended up with stitches in his jaw and was probably lucky it wasn’t a whole lot worse.
If the judiciary were ever going to get serious (and I’m not sure they care about how serious they are or whether they are consistent), now is the time. Kasiano should be rubbed out for the rest of the season.
He clearly lashed out his leg so he could get rid of Parker and get off the ground though, and there is no place for that in the game.
You can’t send a message that it’s fine to kick a bloke in the face and go ‘yep accident sorry fellas.’ Even if it was an accident, which as I said I’m not convinced it was, there has to be a harsh penalty for something like that.
In other words, players need to be more careful where their limbs are going.
Penrith should be in the top four, but consistency has let them down
Friday Night saw an exhibition in attacking rugby league as the Penrith Panthers put the Wests Tigers to the sword, running up 40 points.
As mentioned earlier in this piece, it has not only helped to lock in the order of the top eight, but proves that the Panthers are a better team than they have displayed throughout most of the season.
They have just been inconsistent throughout the season. Of course, the injury bug doesn’t help them, nor did the form of Jamie Soward who got shipped on to England.
However, with attacking weapons all across the park they are a team many will not be wanting to come up against in the finals, simply because you just don’t know what you will get from them.
Halves combination Nathan Cleary and Bryce Cartwright are beginning to gel wonderfully, and with a forward pack featuring youngsters like Regan Campbell-Gillard, Leilani Latu and Isaah Yeo, led along by an in-form Trent Merrin, they seem to be starting to peak out.
The next couple of weeks will tell us a lot about Penrith, but teams should be wary of them come a fortnight’s time.
The Storm are going to be very hard to stop
So, Melbourne. No one apart from their fans really wants them to win – they aren’t exactly the good news or underdog story of the NRL but let me tell you it’s going to take a very good team, or a very bad night on their behalf, to stop them.
With the likes of Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and young fullback Cameron Munster in some form, and their pack rolling along on all cylinders I’m not sure who can beat them.
Tell me till you are blue in the face the Raiders beat them seven days ago – but that wasn’t the finals.
The men from the south have another gear to go up yet.
Newcastle will finish the season with one victory
The Knights may not have been blown off the park on Saturday Afternoon when they played the Gold Coast Titans, but they did let in some very soft tries and simply never looked that threatening with the ball in hand.
In fact, the Knights were beaten in the first 20 minutes when they let in three tries you wouldn’t expect a schoolboys level team to give up – three straight through the middle of the field, with gaping holes in the defence.
Nothing special was required from the Titans’ offence to set them up, and seemingly there was nothing the Knights could do about it except open up a gap with players falling off crucial tackles left, right and centre.
So, moving forward the Knights actually don’t have a difficult run home, playing teams with nothing left to play for in the South Sydney Rabbitohs and St George Illawarra Dragons throughout the last two rounds.
Despite that, the Knights seem to have a phase through each game in defence where they just totally shut down and don’t look like making a tackle or stop. Simply put, they are on a 16-game losing streak and don’t look like turning it around.
That will be 18 by the time the season is out.
The Canberra Raiders won’t trouble the Storm or Sharks without Josh Hodgson
I’m cheating on this one, because I’ve used this point twice before on Michael Ennis and Johnathan Thurston respectively, but it’s such a big issue – certain teams just can’t beat the best if they are without their best.
In this case, it’s the Canberra Raiders and Josh Hodgson.
He was missing from their clash on Sunday afternoon against the Parramatta Eels and it was telling during the first half, and even during the second when they produced a stunning come from behind victory.
This all has to be taken with a grain of salt. Their attack during the first half lacked direction and control and it was no coincidence that Hodgson was out.
While Blake Austin, Aiden Sezer and Jack Wighton are all perfectly capable players in their own right, they just didn’t gel without the control, service and also spark from dummy half that the Englishman brings.
So in short, the Raiders can beat the poor teams without Hodgson, like the Cowboys and Sharks without Ennis and Thurston but it isn’t going to happen against the best of the best.
There you have it, Roarers. Another round and another bunch of major points to come out of it. How did you see the round of footy? What did I miss? Let us know in the comments below.
Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde