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One of football’s greatest modern rivalries will resume tonight when the Geelong Cats host the Hawthorn Hawks at the MCG in the second qualifying final.
The history between these two teams is as memorable as it gets. They have been the best two sides of this last decade and have claimed seven of the last nine premierships between them.
The Cats, however, are now a very different team from the side that won three premierships in 2007, 2009 and 2011 – their team for this match will feature just four players from the 2007 premiership.
In 2015 they looked to be finally regressing back to the lower half of the ladder after a long period at the top, but securing the signatures of Patrick Dangerfield and, to a lesser degree, Lachie Henderson, Zac Smith and Scott Selwood, has seen them come roaring back into premiership contention.
While Hawthorn have lifted the last three premiership cups, they too feel a bit disconnected from the team they once were. While a lot of the names remain the same, there are some key changes, particularly in the forward line.
Jarryd Roughead’s absence for the year – first through a PCL injury and then from a reoccurrence of a melanoma – has left the Hawks with a significant gap up forward that they really haven’t been able to fill.
James Sicily has been a handy addition to the forward mix but isn’t the right mould of player to replace Roughead. Tim O’Brien got a solid run at senior level but never really made the spot his own. The Hawks seemed to find something of a fix in recent weeks by sending Ben McEvoy forward but an ACL injury to Jon Ceglar now has them once again searching for answers.
Remarkably, Jack Fitzpatrick, who was picked up from Melbourne as a discard last season, might be the solution. He played his first game for the Hawks last week against Collingwood and kicked two goals as well as providing McEvoy with some assistance in the ruck.
They’ll be looking at either him or Ryan Schoenmakers to stand up, but whether either of the two can suddenly morph into the main man of a forward line that desperately needs one in the heat of September footy is questionable at best.
The Cats, on the other hand, come into this match with what looks to be a fairly settled team and a lot of confidence. The only real concern for them at this point is when Lachie Henderson will be available to play – aside from that, they appear primed to make a strong run at the flag.
Last five matches
Round 1, 2016 – Geelong Cats 18.8.116 defeated Hawthorn Hawks 12.14.86 – MCG
Round 20, 2015 – Geelong Cats 12.13.85 defeated by Hawthorn Hawks 19.7.121 – MCG
Round 1, 2015 – Hawthorn Hawks 17.21.123 defeated Geelong Cats 8.13.61 – MCG
Qualifying final, 2014 – Hawthorn Hawks 15.14.104 defeated Geelong Cats 10.8.68 – MCG
Round 22, 2014 – Hawthorn Hawks 19.10.94 defeated Geelong Cats 11.5.71 – MCG
Team news
The Cats have made one change with Scott Selwood coming in as a return from injury, while Jed Bews has been omitted to make way.
The Hawks have brought back a pair of Bens – Stratton and McEvoy – with Marc Pittonet and Billy Hartung omitted.
Geelong Cats
In: Scott Selwood
Out: Jed Bews (Omitted)B: Corey Enright, Tom Lonergan, Tom Ruggles
HB: Jake Kolodjashnij, Harry Taylor, Andrew Mackie
C: Cameron Guthrie, Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel
HF: Sam Menegola, Rhys Stanley, Daniel Menzel
F: Steven Motlop, Tom Hawkins, Lincoln McCarthy
Fol: Zac Smith, Patrick Dangerfield, Mitch Duncan
Int: Mark Blicavs, Josh Caddy, Josh Cowan, Scott Selwood
Emg: Jed Bews, Nakia Cockatoo, Shane KerstenHawthorn Hawks
In: Ben McEvoy, Ben Stratton
Out: Marc Pittonet (Omitted), Billy Hartung (Omitted)B: Taylor Duryea, James Frawley, Shaun Burgoyne
HB: Luke Hodge, Josh Gibson, Grant Birchall
C: Isaac Smith, Sam Mitchell, Brad Hill
HF: Luke Breust, Jack Gunston, Cyril Rioli
F: Paul Puopolo, Jack Fitzpatrick, Ryan Schoenmakers
Fol: Ben McEvoy, Jordan Lewis, Liam Shiels
Int: Ben Stratton, Brendan Whitecross, James Sicily, Ryan Burton
Emg: Billy Hartung, Daniel Howe, Matt Spangher
Key players
Maybe it’s the obvious choice but Patrick Dangerfield has to be acknowledged as the key player for the Cats. While the additions of Lachie Henderson and Zac Smith have helped a bit, it’s been his arrival which has transformed the Cats from a bottom-eight side last year to a premiership threat in 2016.
In the only game between these two sides so far this year, in Round 1, Dangerfield was on debut for the Cats and collected 43 disposals in a clear best-on-ground performance. The only blemish was that he finished with a scoreline of 0.3 in front of goal, despite having some very easy opportunities.
Play like that again and it’s hard to see him not leading the Cats to a win. His accuracy has been much better throughout the course of the season than it was on that day, although he’s still had the occasional off-target game.
For the Hawks, the key player must be Cyril Rioli. The Hawks are underdogs here and you’d think that if they’re going to get the win, it’s going to have to come through a brilliant performance from their star small forward.
Rioli, notably, was the only Hawthorn player to be included in the All-Australian team this year, and looks likely to win the Hawks’ best-and-fairest come the end of the season. He has been the Hawks’ brightest star his year.
He was well held by Cam Guthrie when these two sides met in Round 1 so expect the Cats to make use of that match-up once again. If Rioli can get off the leash he could guide the Hawks to victory – if not, they’ll struggle to get the job done.
Return of the curse?
The Cats held the wood over the Hawks for a long time following the disappointment of the 2008 grand final, and it wasn’t until the 2013 preliminary final that the Hawks finally broke back for a win, before winning the premiership the next week against the Fremantle Dockers.
Since then, the ledger has swung the way of the Hawks rather than the Cats, but Geelong took the chocolates in Round 1 this year and would love for that to be the beginning of a new streak.
The 2008 decider is already something of a distant memory. This match will feature just nine of the 44 players who took to the field that day, but with regeneration occurring at both clubs, and another meeting on the big stage, there’s room for some new life to be breathed into the feud.
Hot and cold form
These sides both played teams sitting outside the top eight in Round 23 and both needed wins to secure top four spots. They got them, but the manner of the victories could not have been more different.
The Cats were simply dominant over Melbourne with a 111-point win, their biggest winning margin of the season, while the Hawks were in the end lucky to escape with a one-point victory over Collingwood, their smallest winning margin of the season.
It’s up for debate as to how much you can really read into those results, but they definitely tip things in Geelong’s favour at least a little.
Which fairytale wins through?
Even though these sides have had a glut of success in recent years, there’s still some great ‘feel good’ stories in the mix for guys who have had to endure more than their fair share of bad luck.
Daniel Menzel for Geelong and Brendan Whitecross for Hawthorn would both be premiership players right now if it wasn’t for multiple ACL injuries for each. They have both finally hit a spell of good luck and are set to play on the big stage.
So who’s going to win?
It’s hard to argue against Geelong being the favourites in this match. In addition to having beaten the Hawks earlier in the year, they just seem to be running much more smoothly at this stage of the season than their opponents, and you’d expect that to lead to a win.
That’s not to say the Hawks are down and out. They’re more than capable of pulling a win out of their hats, they just need to turn their form around a little to get it done. The likely absence of Lachie Henderson gives them a real chance to still make an impact in front of goal despite the shortage of talls in their forward line.
In a match between two rivals like this, especially in finals footy, just about any result is on the cards. The Cats definitely look like the more attractive proposition, but don’t be surprised if it goes the other way.
Prediction: Geelong Cats by 18 points.
Where: MCG
When: Friday 9 September, 7:50pm (AEST)
TV: Channel Seven, live, FoxFooty, live
Betting: Geelong Cats $1.64, Hawthorn Hawks $2.30
Head-to-head: Geelong Cats 86, Hawthorn Hawks 72, Drawn 1
Last five: Geelong Cats 1, Hawthorn Hawks 4
In finals: Geelong Cats 3, Hawthorn Hawks 6