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Of the 128 women that started in the women’s singles draw at the US Open, only two remain: soon-to-be world number one Angelique Kerber and one of the most improved players on tour, Karolina Pliskova.
Before we get to the preview of the match, there will be a changing of the guard at the top of the WTA rankings when they are updated next week, following the results from the two women’s semi-finals played on Thursday night (Friday morning AEST).
Kerber will officially become the new world number one on Monday, succeeding Serena Williams, who suffered a shock defeat to Pliskova in the first semi-final.
The 34-year-old was well below her best as Pliskova set the tone for the match by breaking in the third game of the opening set. The Czech broke once more en route to taking the opening set 6-2 in just 26 minutes.
That made it three sets in a row whereby Pliskova did not face a single break point, after being as equally ruthless in her quarter-final victory over Ana Konjuh.
The second set was evenly contested. Despite the 24-year-old breaking early the American would break back for 3-all and the set would eventually be decided in a tiebreak.
Pliskova struck the early blow, taking a 3-0 lead before a couple of errors pegged it back to 3-all. Williams had several chances to force a deciding set, but the Czech would hold her composure and would earn a match point at 6-5*.
The 34-year-old would strike a double fault to lose the match and her world number one ranking, which she had held for 186 consecutive weeks dating back to February 18, 2013.
It was the second consecutive year the American was upset a round short of the final, having been stunned by Roberta Vinci in the corresponding round twelve months ago.
Not only does she remain tied with Steffi Graf for most consecutive weeks in top spot, she also remains tied with the German legend on 22 major titles, two behind the overall record of 24 held by Margaret Court.
Questions will now continue to be asked as to whether Williams can add to her major haul in the years to come, especially with her 35th birthday looming in just over a fortnight’s time.
Kerber, meantime, will become the first German woman since Graf nearly twenty years ago to top the WTA rankings, and, by virtue of Williams’ defeat, clinched it even before she stepped out onto court for her match against Caroline Wozniacki.
If anything, the German didn’t appear to show any signs of pressure in regards to the milestone she is about to achieve.
The 28-year-old won the first four games of the match even before Wozniacki had won as many points. After the former world number one pegged back a break, Kerber steadied to win the opening set 6-4.
Despite being broken to love while serving for the match at 5-2, the German broke to take the set 6-3, and thus the match in straight sets, and progress to her third Grand Slam final this year alone.
She will start the prohibitive favourite to win her second Grand Slam title, and it is only appropriate that she would do so to mark the start of what is hopefully a long reign as the world’s best female player.
But it will not come easy against Pliskova, who despite her rise up the rankings in the past two years had developed a reputation for underachieving at the majors.
Before this year’s US Open she had never made the second week of any Grand Slam tournament, with her previous best results coming when she made the third round of the 2014 US Open as well as at the past two Australian Opens.
She does, however, possess wins over numerous big names such as Kerber, Ana Ivanovic, Jelena Jankovic, Victoria Azarenka, Simona Halep and Garbine Muguruza, among others.
The Czech also defeated Kerber to win the title in Cincinnati last month. That prevented the German from claiming the world number one ranking a week before the US Open.
But a major final is a whole new ball game for Pliskova and it will be interesting to see how she handles the pressure of playing in the biggest match of her tennis career in the world’s biggest Grand Slam stadium.
Many first-time Grand Slam finalists before her have crashed and burned, while some like Kerber at this year’s Australian Open and Maria Sharapova at Wimbledon in 2004 have thrived.
Their first major titles both came at the expense of Serena Williams, who on both occasions was the defending champion (or in the case of Wimbledon, was the two-time defending champion).
Those who failed the first time have succeeded later, like Ivanovic when she won the 2008 French Open twelve months after being humiliated by Justine Henin at the same tournament, and Muguruza, who beat Williams to win this year’s French Open less than twelve months after losing to the American in the Wimbledon final.
So, can the Czech continue her fairytale run, or will Kerber celebrate her ascent to world number one with a second major title? Here is everything you need to know heading into the women’s final.
Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [10] versus Angelique Kerber (GER) [2]
Saturday, September 10
Not before 4:00pm local time (Sunday 6:00am AEST)
Arthur Ashe Stadium
Head-to-head
All matches: Kerber 4-3
At Grand Slams: First meeting
In finals: Kerber 2-1
Last meeting: Pliskova 6-3, 6-1, final, 2016 Western and Southern Open
Karolina Pliskova’s road to the final
Round 1: defeated Sofia Kenin (USA) 6-4, 6-3
Round 2: defeated Montserrat Gonzalez (PAR) 6-1, 7-5
Round 3: defeated Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS) [17] 6-2, 6-4
Round 4: defeated Venus Williams (USA) [6] 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (7-3)
Quarter-finals: defeated Ana Konjuh (CRO) 6-2, 6-2
Semi-finals: defeated Serena Williams (USA) [1] 6-2, 7-6 (7-5)
Angelique Kerber’s road to the final
Round 1: defeated Polona Hercog (SLO) 6-0, 1-0 ret.
Round 2: defeated Mirjana Lucic-Baroni (CRO) 6-2, 7-6 (9-7)
Round 3: defeated CiCi Bellis (USA) 6-1, 6-1
Round 4: defeated Petra Kvitova (CZE) [14] 6-3, 7-5
Quarter-finals: defeated Roberta Vinci (ITA) [7] 7-5, 6-0
Semi-finals: defeated Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) 6-4, 6-3
Stats that matter
* This will be Angelique Kerber’s third Grand Slam final overall, while for Karolina Pliskova this will be her first. For both, this is their first US Open final.
* This will be the pair’s eighth meeting overall, first at Grand Slam level and fourth in a final. Kerber leads these categories 4-3, 0-0 and 2-1 respectively.
* Kerber is aiming to become the first player to win both the Australian and US Open titles in the same calendar year since Martina Hingis in 1997.
* Pliskova is aiming to become the first player since Kim Clijsters at the 2009 US Open to beat both Williams sisters en route to a Grand Slam title. When Clijsters won, she beat Venus in the fourth round and Serena in the semi-finals.
* Kerber will be going for her second Grand Slam title, Pliskova her first. The latter is aiming to become just the second player from her country (after Petra Kvitova) to win a Grand Slam title since 1998.
* Pliskova is the first player from her country, male or female, to appear in a US Open final since Helena Sukova in 1993.
* Kerber is aiming to become the first German US Open champion of either gender since Steffi Graf won her last US Open title in 1996.
* Serena Williams (in 2014) was the most recent female champion to win the US Open without dropping a set.
Prediction
Angelique Kerber in straight sets.
Before the women’s final on Sunday morning (AEST), the two men’s semi-finals will be contested on Saturday morning, with Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka the favourites to progress to the men’s final.
Matches to watch on Day 12
Arthur Ashe Stadium
Day session – not before 12:00pm (2:00am AEST)
Coco Vandeweghe (USA)/Rajeev Ram (USA) [7] versus Laura Siegemund (GER)/Mate Pavic (CRO)
Not before 3:00pm (5:00am AEST)
Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] versus Gael Monfils (FRA) [10]
Not before 4:30pm (6:30am AEST)
Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [3] versus Kei Nishikori (JPN) [6]
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