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Let’s get one thing straight here – the fact that Essendon have the first pick in the draft this year is a farce.
The Dons’ last-placed finish this year came about because 12 players, most of them in the best 22, were banned by WADA.
Those bans were the result of activity that the club authorised and encouraged – they cannot claim a lack of responsibility for what happened.
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That they should still receive pick one, when their ladder position is a result of their own illegal activity, is an embarrassment.
The AFL missed the opportunity to nip this problem in the bud at the start of the year when they said Essendon would not receive any further punishment.
But what Essendon were punished for three years ago was “bringing the game into disrepute” and “governance failures”. The AFL has never punished them for the actual administering of banned substances to players – and it’s never going to.
The AFL should have ruled that they would have the last draft pick in each round, regardless of finishing place. That’s not taking the picks away. It barely qualifies as punishing them. Instead, it’s making the decision to not reward illegal behaviour.
Unfortunately, this is just another bush-league decision by the head office that we are going to have to live with.
It’s the other side of coin to the ludicrous and unprofessional Sydney trade ban – rewarding a club for doing something wrong, rather than punishing a club for following the rules.
Rubbish.
Anyway, nothing we can do about it now. The big question becomes, what are Essendon going to do with their pick?
For the first time in many years, there’s a genuine chance it could be traded. That hasn’t happened since Fremantle paid up big to secure talls Luke McPharlin and Trent Croad ahead of the 2001 draft. To make that happen they gave the Hawks picks one, 20 and 36 – Luke Hodge, Daniel Elstone, and Sam Mitchell.
Elstone never made the grade but Hodge and Mitchell have been arguably the two most important players in Hawthorn’s four recent premierships.
McPharlin turned out okay for the Dockers, recording a long career that was mostly solid and occasionally elite, but unfortunately his body seemed to break down just before the Dockers really got a shot at the premiership. Croad was a bust.
So, you can understand why clubs are a bit wary about trading away the No.1 selection in the draft, and why it hasn’t happened since. If the Dockers had their time again, they’d surely do things differently.
Trading the top pick isn’t something that’s about to come back into fashion. But, there’s the possibility for a one-off, unique scenario to play out here.
If Essendon do trade the first selection at the draft it will be to Greater Western Sydney, who at the moment have an unprecedented amount of excess talent on their list.
There are probably four or five players on the GWS list playing in the NEAFL every week who would get a game at the vast majority of clubs, but just can’t break in for the Giants.
Further to that, GWS have a bounty of picks themselves, from trading away yet more talent last year. They’ve already got three picks in the first round this year – seven, 15 and 16.
They’re in a rare position where they can afford to spend big and offer Essendon more – potentially much more – than what any club would normally consider reasonable.
A big factor in the potential deal is that Essendon’s top priority this off-season is to find a quality key forward who can be a long-term partner for Joe Daniher.
If there was a quality key forward in the draft – like Tom Boyd or Patrick McCartin in recent years – the Dons would surely rebuff all offers, and take the pick to the draft. There isn’t, though. This is a draft with plenty of midfielders but it is lacking in key position players.
The best key forward in the draft is Todd Marshall, who is probably a top-ten pick – early teens at the latest – but hasn’t done enough to make taking him first the smart play.
So if the Dons want to bring in a key forward this year, that leaves them with two options: recruit one from another club, or trade down the draft order to target Marshall. The latter is most likely. What the Bombers could look at is making a deal with the Giants where they swap the top selection for several high ones.
GWS can’t afford to sell the farm here as they do need some picks in hand to collect a number of highly rated academy players this year – Will Setterfield and Harry Perryman being chief among them.
But they are reportedly going pretty hard at Carlton for their first selection, pick five, in a deal that would involve Caleb Marchbank and possibly other players and picks.
If they get it, they might offer the Dons a deal of picks five and seven for pick one – possibly with some swaps of later picks, or a player involved, or both.
That would allow Essendon to target Marshall as the key forward they want at either pick, and use the other to add another highly-rated talent.
For the Giants, it means they get to pick the best talent in the country, rather than pick up a number of players, many of whom would simply join the cycle of playing NEAFL for a few years before asking for trades home.
Their target is believed to be Andrew McGrath, a running defender who they see as a potential replacement for Heath Shaw, who will be 31 at the start of the 2017 season.
Who knows if it will all come together or not. If the Giants aren’t able to acquire pick five – or another top ten pick from elsewhere – the Dons will probably say no.
Even if GWS can make the offer, Essendon might fall in love with the idea of picking up the top kid in the country – though it might not be McGrath if they’re the ones making the choice.
Two players whose futures have become a lot clearer are Jesse Hogan and Rory Lobb, with both signing two-year contract extensions yesterday.
While they were both contracted for 2017 already, there were rumblings that they might look to request trades this year – that, clearly, will now not come to pass.
It does provide some clarity for Fremantle, who were looking at a number of tall targets. With Lobb and Hogan locked up, they can now focus more specifically on Cam McCarthy.
That deal looks likely to get done, with GWS and Fremantle already in negotiations. The Giants will get less now than they would have last year, but arguably won an important victory for their self-respect.
Playing hardball on McCarthy hasn’t worked out as well as the Giants hoped, but it appears that they’re going to get a much better result from doing the same with Adam Tomlinson.
Despite reportedly wanting a trade back to Victoria at the end of last year, Tomlinson is now expected to stay with the Giants in 2017.
Hamish Hartlett arrived in Melbourne on Tuesday and it’s believed he’ll now be talking to several clubs before nominating a preferred destination.
Essendon have been the club most regularly mentioned as pursuing him, and of all the Victorian clubs they probably have the most draft pick capital to splash around.
They could possibly offer Port Adelaide a combination of picks 19 and pick 26 – which they likely receive from Melbourne for Michael Hibberd. Or, perhaps their potential deal with GWS as discussed above would give them the picks they need to secure Hartlett.
North Melbourne’s Brent Harvey is looking unlikely to play on at another club in 2017, with his manager saying on Monday that no clubs are interested. That might change if Harvey officially declares a desire to play on – but it doesn’t seem likely at this stage.
Daniel Wells is said to be waiting until after Friday night’s best-and-fairest count before he makes a call on whether or not to depart North. However, other sources have suggested that his mooted move to Collingwood is already a done deal.
Jack Riewoldt’s manager says a number of clubs have enquired about the key forward, but there’s been no discussion with Richmond about trading him.
Pearce Hanley is looking more and more likely to move to Gold Coast, having reportedly toured their facilities. Of course, he might have discussions with new Lions coach Chris Fagan first.
The Suns, looking likely to miss out on Hartlett, have also reportedly turned their attention to Brendon Ah Chee – cousin of current player Callum.
Tyrone Vickery’s manager has said that a number of clubs, not just Hawthorn, are interested in recruiting the big Tiger – but hasn’t named any names.
Another club has entered the race for Zach Tuohy, with Geelong reportedly throwing their hats in the ring. North Melbourne and Sydney have also shown interest.
Jarryd Lyons is looking likely to stay with the Crows, the word being that he could get a better contract at another club but wants to remain with Adelaide if possible.
Nathan Hrovat may be on the move, with the former first round draft pick reportedly drawing interest from Carlton.
Fremantle has given all three of Matt de Boer, Clancee Pearce and Tendai Mzungu the chop, opening up the possibility for them to move to new clubs if there is interest.
Melbourne have confirmed that they’re yet to offer Chris Dawes a new contract, but may still do so depending on other deals.