Australia so nearly stole defeat from the jaws of victory at the Gabba, but nonetheless will arrive at the famous Melbourne Cricket Ground for the Boxing Day Test with a one-nil series lead, looking to make it two and unassailable against a struggling Pakistan outfit.

Australia absolutely dominated the first innings of the second pink ball Test of the summer in Brisbane and were well and truly cruising during the second innings before the tourists mounted some resistance with their batting.

Chasing what seemed like a ridiculous and impossible 490 for the victory, Pakistan, for the first time in the match showed a little bit of fight, getting all the way to 450 with a monumental effort from Asad Shafiq and the tail.

That came after Australia had taken a massive lead out of the first innings thanks to centuries from captain Steve Smith and second Test rookie Peter Handscomb.

Along with young opener Matt Renshaw, who made 71 the pair guided Australia to 429 in their first innings, which looked at one point like it should have been a lot more given they were 4 for 323 when Smith got out.

Mohammad Amir, who at the end of the first day’s play looked to have done a knee injury took four wickets, but the pick of the bowlers was Wahab Riaz who also had four, but bowled with consistency and looked dangerous every time he ran in.

In reply, the Pakistan top order absolutely crumbled under the pressure from Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Jackson Bird, who all picked up three wickets each, the tourists making just 142.

Sarfraz Ahmed showed the only sign of resistance for a Pakistan side who were already coming off a crushing defeat in New Zealand, the wicketkeeper making a hard fought 59.

By that point it was already early on Day 3 and despite only spending 55 overs in the field, Smith elected not to enforce the follow-on, allowing his men to bat again and build on their lead, attempting to bat Pakistan out of the contest.

The move almost seemed to backfire at the end of the Test after Australia made 5 for 202, declaring after just 39 overs at the Tea break.

Australia’s aim, of course was to bowl at Pakistan during the night session with lights on and reduce their top order once again to nothing.

Instead, Azhar Ali led the resistance, making 41 not out by the end of Day 3 and having Pakistan at a dangerous, but still reasonable 2 for 70.

No one could have foreseen what played out on Day 4 though as Ali himself made 71 before Younis Khan added 65 to the total, ensuring the top order wouldn’t be knocked over cheaply.

Shafiq then went on to score 137, batting with the tail, who apart from Rahat Ali all made it past 30 with the score edging closer all the time.

Yasir Shah, who had limited impact with the ball throughout the match made a highest ever score of 33, but just couldn’t get his side over the line as he got comically ran out by Smith to end the match.

While the margin of victory – just 40 runs – doesn’t show Australia’s dominance throughout the match, it does show Pakistan have it in them to bat for long periods of time and tough it out, so one would expect them to put up a much larger fight in Melbourne.

Last five meetings

Dec 15 – Dec 19 2016: Australia won by 40 runs at Gabba
Oct 30 – Nov 3 2014: Pakistan won by 356 runs at Abu Dhabi
Oct 22 – Oct 26 2014: Pakistan won by 221 runs at Dubai
Jul 21 – Jul 24 2010: Pakistan won by 3 wickets at Leeds
Jul 13 – Jul 16 2010: Australia won by 150 runs at Lords

Last five series

2014: Pakistan 2 – Australia 0 in United Arab Emirates
2010: Pakistan 1 – Australia 1 in England
2009/2010: Australia 3 – Pakistan 0 in Australia
2004/2005: Australia 3 – Pakistan 0 in Australia
2002: Australia 3 – Pakistan 0 in Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates

Series fixtures/results

1st match: Australia won by 40 runs at Gabba
2nd match: December 26 – December 30 at MCG
3rd match: January 3 – January 7 at SCG

The follow on – should it have been enforced and did Smith get the declaration right?
If there was one talking point to come out of the first Test in Brisbane, it was the captaincy of Steve Smith, who firstly chose not to enforce the follow-on and then timed his declaration seemingly quite poorly.

Since that fateful Test in 2001 against India, Australian captains have been far too hesitant in enforcing the follow on and while bowler workloads have something to do with it, 55 overs wasn’t a cause for concern in Brisbane.

With rain on Day 4 forecast, it seemed a risk and turned into something even more silly when Smith declared just 39 overs into Australia’s second innings, during the tea break.

Declaring during the tea break, leaving Pakistan 490 to chase dangled the carrot in front of a team who were absolutely decimated during the first innings.

Given it left the Aussie bowlers with a two-hour session, and the lead just short of the 500-run mental barrier the declaration seemed poorly timed, and during a break gave Pakistan 20 minutes to prepare, rather than ten after being in the field.

What to do with Nic Maddinson?
The calls for some stability in the Australian team and for the selectors to use the ‘pick and stick’ method have been growing louder and louder all summer.

While that will be easy to do with Matt Renshaw and Peter Handscomb who have found their feet in the Test side with relative ease, scoring runs and looking the part straight away, the other debutant from Adelaide, Nic Maddinson, hasn’t.

He hasn’t yet made it out of double figures in the Test arena and the majority who questioned his selection from the beginning have so far proven to be right.

The question now is whether to stick with Maddinson or cut him lose again, bringing in yet another rookie for the Boxing Day Test.

The selectors have made their intentions a little clearer with the inclusion of Hilton Cartwright in the squad and given the need to possibly have a fifth bowling option in Melbourne, the move makes even more sense.

While he has only been labelled as injury cover at this point, it’s clear that Maddinson’s position in the side is on the ropes and his chances of playing at the MCG are quite low.

With Shaun Marsh also returning from injury through the Big Bash League, there is an expectation he will be fit for the New Year’s Test and if not that, then certainly the upcoming Tour of India, so Maddinson may have had his time in the sun.

Mohammad Amir must stand up
The biggest danger to the Australian batting order coming into this series was undoubtedly Mohammad Amir. While the Pakistan spearhead hasn’t had the greatest year with the ball, he should have excelled in Australian conditions, especially under lights with a pink ball at the Gabba.

Unfortunately for Amir, he never looked the part for much more than a spell in the first innings despite ending up with four wickets.

His bowling in the second innings was quite average as he picked up one more wicket and simply put, if Pakistan are going to be competitive then Amir needs to lead that charge.

While Wahab Riaz and Rahat Ali have made it all too clear what they can do, Amir must lead the charge with the new ball.

The extra half hour was taken – but does it show a lack of respect from Australia?
Taking the extra half hour on Day 4 to try and wrap up the match seemed absolutely foolish given the momentum seemed to be with Pakistan at the time and Australia still needed three wickets.

The fact the umpires offered it to Smith was baffling enough, but for Smith to actually take it seemed even weirder and could have indicated a large lack of respect for the tourists.

Smith thought his side was going to turn the momentum around after an already long day in the field, and it set the scene for Shafiq to bring up his century and give Pakistan a very small chance, which grew into Day 5.

It was clear the coaching staff didn’t want it to be taken from post-match interviews, and if Australia are disrespecting their opposition, just because of the first innings performance it will come back to bite very quickly.

David Warner might be out of form, but he still belongs in this Australian team and Boxing Day could be the start of his revival
The excitement maching David Warner might be in some scintillating form with the white ball, but his Test run-scoring is well of the pace this year.

In fact, it was surprising to read his calendar year average is under 40, and even more so to consider he hasn’t scored a century in any of Australia’s innings on home soil this summer.

Given Warner has looked comfortable at the crease most of the time, he simply isn’t going on with it and it’s a real worry for the vice-captain.

None of that is to say Warner doesn’t warrant his spot in the team. He has locked down the opening position with a mix of aggression and smart cricket, and there is no one on the same level as him to take his spot at this stage.

In saying that, Warner’s confidence is going to start being affected if he can’t pull out a big score shortly – there would be no better place for it than the MCG either.

Yasir Shah is a big danger man in Melbourne
One of the best leg-spinners in world cricket, Shah was returning from injury in Brisbane and struggled to make anything happen, although the entire match only saw five wickets taken by spin.

With overs under his belt in his first match back though, and a Melbourne pitch that could take a bit of turn in the back end, Shah is going to be a massive danger man for Pakistan.

Australia have well-documented troubles playing spin in Asia and while bowling leg spin in Australia is a completely different art, Shah is one of the best for a reason and it should be expected he will bowl quite well.

If Australia’s batsmen can’t stand up, it could be catastrophic.

Key Information

First ball: 10:30am (AEDT)
Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, Victoria
TV: Live, Nine Network
Online: Live, Cricket.com.au live pass
Betting: Australia $1.36, Pakistan $6.20, Draw $6.20
Overall Record: Played 60, Australia 29, Pakistan 14, Drawn 17
Last five: Pakistan 3, Australia 2

Teams

Australia
1. David Warner
2. Matt Renshaw
3. Usman Khawaja
4. Steve Smith (c)
5. Peter Handscomb
6. Nic Maddinson
7. Matthew Wade (wk)
8. Mitchell Starc
9. Josh Hazlewood
10. Nathan Lyon
11. Jackson Bird

12. Chadd Sayers
13. Hilton Cartwright

Pakistan (Likely XI and squad)
1. Sami Azlam
2. Azhar Ali
3. Babar Azam
4. Younis Khan
5. Misbah-ul-Haq (c)
6. Asad Shafiq
7. Sarfraz Ahmed (wk)
8. Wahab Riaz
9. Yasir Shah
10. Mohammad Amir
11. Rahat Ali

Rest of squad – Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Rizwan, Rahat Ali, Sharjeel Khan, Sohail Khan

Hours of play

*Times are subject to change due to over rates, game situation, weather

Prediction

Australia were absolutely dominant for most of the first Test, but Pakistan will be able to take plenty of momentum out of their second innings batting performance.

Unfortunately for the tourists, it doesn’t look anywhere near enough to get them out of the rut, especially considering it was the lower order and Asad Shafiq who dug them out of the hole and took them closer to a very unlikely victory.

It would be a shock to see them turn it around enough to get the win in the biggest match on the Australian calendar, but they should give it a red hot shake, meaning we should see a much closer match at the ‘G’.

With the series on the line though, Australia will be too strong with Steve Smith, David Warner and Mitchell Starc leading the way.

Australia to win and take the series.

Don’t forget The Roar will have a live blog of each and every day from the summer of cricket as well as highlights throughout the match.

Follow Scott on Twitter @sk_pryde