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Australia will be missing their two best batsmen, David Warner and Steve Smith, when the Chappell-Hadlee Trophy starts today, giving the Kiwis a far greater chance of avenging their 3-0 shellacking last month.
Australia dominated that home ODI series thanks to the commanding displays of Warner and Smith, who combined for 535 runs at an average of 89.
The rest of the Australian team contributed just 374 runs, underlining the enormous input of the star pair, who carried that form into the just-completed five-match series against Pakistan – Warner making 367 runs at 73, and Smith 221 runs at 55.
Now Warner has been rested from the tour of New Zealand and Smith has withdrawn due to an ankle complaint.
Having relied heavily on Smith and Warner over the past two years, Australia’s batting line-up will be tested. The Black Caps have the first and seventh-ranked ODI bowlers in the world, in Trent Boult and Matt Henry, as well as veteran swing bowler Tim Southee and accurate left-arm spinner Mitchell Santner.
Some of these bowlers have, however, struggled at times to perform against the Aussies. Southee, in particular, has been reduced to cannon fodder, averaging 58 with the ball from 16 ODIs against Australia.
Henry was brilliant with the white ball the last time Australia toured New Zealand, but was targeted last month, taking 2-165 from 20 overs in that series.
But Boult’s ability to swing the new ball late and sharply has troubled the Aussie batsmen. He’s taken 16 wickets at an average of 22 from seven ODIs against Australia.
As for Santner, he has eight wickets at 22 against Australia, compared to 17 wickets at 46 against every other team. While is not a big turner of the ball, Santner has repeatedly shown the ability to choke Australia’s run rate in the middle overs.
Santner, Boult and Henry shape as the keys in this series. Australia’s bowling attack is dominant but, without Smith and Warner, their batting is a potential weakness.
With the bat, the Kiwis will be hoping for greater input from gun Kane Williamson, whose average of 36 from nine ODIs against Australia is ten runs lower than his career mark, while his slow strike rate of 77 is a reflection that the Aussie attack has contained him well.
While Williamson plays Mitchell Starc as well as any batsman in world cricket, Josh Hazlewood has tested the Kiwi skipper, with his nagging line and length.
Due to his calm demeanour and ability to rotate the strike, Williamson is the perfect foil for dynamic opener Martin Guptill, who has often been overawed when faced by the Australians. Guptill overcame those nerves last month, cracking 193 runs at 61, at the blistering strike rate of 110.
At his best, he is nigh-on unstoppable, with only Warner (2256 runs at 61) having scored more ODI runs than Guptill (2092 runs at 54) in the past two years.
There are question marks over the depth of New Zealand’s batting, which was exposed last month. The tourists will feel that if they can get one or, better still, both of Guptill and Williamson in the first ten to 15 overs, the Kiwis will struggle to set or chase a large total.
Of course, if the Black Caps bat first, they may not need to post a 300-plus total to win. It is a long time since Australia have been without both Warner and Smith in an ODI series, so the pressure will weigh heavily on their new-look batting line-up.