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Just when you thought you’d seen everything, betting odds for State of Origin Game 3 – a decider at Suncorp Stadium – have the New South Wales Blues as stubstantial favourites over the Queensland Maroons.
The Blues are paying just $1.72 to take home the State of Origin shield for just the second time in the last decade, while the Maroons are outsiders at $2.15.
More Origin 3 coverage:
» Game 3 match report: Maroons keep their dynasty alive after smashing the Blues
» Five talking points from Origin Game 3
» WATCH: Highlights from Origin Game 3
» How it happened: Re-live Game 3 with our Origin live scores, blog and highlights
Even though the Maroons will be without two of their best players in Johnathan Thurston and Darius Boyd, they are at home, so to see the Blues as favourites could be considered something of a shock. The Maroons’ replacements for the match are Cameron Munster and Michael Morgan respectively, with Ben Hunt to take the bench role.
The line
The most supported option on the line is for the Blues to cover a -2.5 line, which is paying $2. The Maroons are paying $1.75 to go down by less than 2.5 points.
Total points
You’ll get $1.90 at most major betting outlets for over and under 31.5 points. There is no split and punters are quite clearly torn on just how many points will be scored.
Interestingly, it was set at 32.5 for Game 2 with the under 32.5 option paying significantly less than the over.
The margin
The shortest option in the margin will score you $2.75, with the Blues winning by 1-12 being the most heavily backed. The Maroons winning by 1-12 is paying $3, while the Blues at 13+ is at $4.
If you are feeling adventurous or really think Queensland might run away with it (remember Game 3 in 2015?), they are paying $6.50 for a win of 13 or more points.
Man of the match
Despite the Blues being ahead in most markets, it’s Cameron Smith who at the shortest odds for man of the match in the decider, paying $7.
The second favouite? Mitchell Pearce. Despite his extremely quiet finish to Game 2, he is paying $8 to be best on ground, with James Tedesco and Boyd Cordner following at $9 and $10 respectively.
Cooper Cronk is at $11, Billy Slater $13 and Dane Gagai, who has arguably been the player of the series so far, sitting at $34.
First try-scorer
Blake Ferguson and Brett Morris come into the decider as the favourites to get over the strike first. They are both paying $11 ahead of James Tedesco and Valentine Holmes, who are together at $12.
Dane Gagai and Jarryd Hayne find themselves at $13, while other outside backs follow with Billy Slater at $14 and Josh Dugan at $15.
Here is a complete list for first try-scorer and man of the match odds.
| Name | Man of the match | First try-scorer |
| Billy Slater (Maroons) | $13 | $14 |
| Valentine Holmes (Maroons) | $81 | $12 |
| Will Chambers (Maroons) | $81 | $17 |
| Michael Morgan (Maroons) | $17 | $16 |
| Dane Gagai (Maroons) | $34 | $13 |
| Cameron Munster (Maroons) | $17 | $19 |
| Cooper Cronk (Maroons) | $11 | $21 |
| Dylan Napa (Maroons) | $34 | $61 |
| Cameron Smith (Maroons) | $7 | $41 |
| Jarrod Wallace (Maroons) | $101 | $81 |
| Gavin Cooper (Maroons) | $34 | $26 |
| Matt Gillett (Maroons) | $17 | $23 |
| Josh McGuire (Maroons) | $21 | $51 |
| Ben Hunt (Maroons) | $21 | $26 |
| Josh Papalii (Maroons) | $34 | $31 |
| Coen Hess (Maroons) | $51 | $21 |
| Tim Glasby (Maroons) | $151 | $61 |
| James Tedesco (Blues) | $9 | $12 |
| Blake Ferguson (Blues) | $67 | $11 |
| Josh Dugan (Blues) | $51 | $15 |
| Jarryd Hayne (Blues) | $17 | $13 |
| Brett Morris (Blues) | $101 | $11 |
| James Maloney (Blues) | $13 | $19 |
| Mitchell Pearce (Blues) | $8 | $21 |
| Aaron Woods (Blues) | $26 | $51 |
| Nathan Peats (Blues) | $17 | $41 |
| Andrew Fifita (Blues) | $13 | $26 |
| Josh Jackson (Blues) | $26 | $34 |
| Boyd Cordner (Blues) | $10 | $19 |
| Tyson Frizell (Blues) | $26 | $26 |
| David Klemmer (Blues) | $51 | $51 |
| Wade Graham (Blues) | $41 | $29 |
| Jake Trbojevic (Blues) | $26 | $41 |
| Jack Bird (Blues) | $34 | $23 |
*Betting odds are correct as at 12:30pm (AEST) on Tuesday, July 11.
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