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It’s almost time. In three hours (or probably three hours and, like, 19 minutes, depending on what time kick-off actually takes place) State of Origin will begin for another year.
As has been the case just about every year, Queensland are putting their backs up against the wall thanks to a raft of injuries, meaning the Blues head into Game 1 as pretty comfortable favourites. That’s despite having a whopping 11 debutants, a new coach, and only one series victory in the last decade.
All the wash-up from State of Origin 1:
» GORE: Gritty Queensland hurt by two key missed calls
» The funniest State of Origin ratings on the internet
» How the Blues fared at the MCG: NSW Game 1 player ratings
» How the Maroons performed: Queensland Game 1 player ratings
» State of Origin highlights and match report
So to help you get the good oil on who’s actually going to win the series opener at the MCG, we’ve pooled the knowledge of our stable of rugby league writers and asked them who they reckon will win, what the margin will be, who they’ve got for first try-scorer and man of the match, and a few other tidbits.
Read on!
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 8 points
Player of the match: James Maloney
First try scorer: ‘Jimmy the Jet’ – James Roberts
One thing that definitely will happen: Dane Gagai will score at least one try
One thing that definitely won’t happen: Queensland will not score more than 12 points
Who will win: Queensland
Margin: 2 points
Player of the match: Cameron Munster
First try scorer: Valentine Holmes
One thing that definitely will happen: Near-perfect completions
One thing that definitely won’t happen: An open, free-flowing game that ends 32-30
Who will win: The mighty Blues
Margin: 14 points
Player of the match: James Maloney
First try scorer: Josh Addo-Carr
One thing that definitely will happen: The loser will leave the country.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: There will be no last-gasp Queensland comeback. You can’t win the game at the death when you’re 14 points behind.
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 8 points
Player of the match: Nathan Cleary
First try scorer: Josh Addo-Carr
One thing that definitely will happen: Boring pessimists who hate being happy will whinge about the refereeing.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: Universal congratulations and kudos to the referees for calling a good game.
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 4 points
Player of the match: Damien Cook
First try scorer: Latrell Mitchell
One thing that definitely will happen: A free-flowing, fast-paced game. In other words, a very different encounter to the ones Cameron Smith has controlled for Queensland.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: Channel Nine’s commentators being completely free of any bias for 80 minutes and their hours of pre and post-match ‘analysis.’
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 20 points
Player of the match: Damien Cook
First try scorer: Josh Addo-Carr
One thing that definitely will happen: Queensland’s forwards being exposed, particularly Dylan Napa.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: People calling for the return of Josh Dugan, Blake Ferguson and Aaron Woods.
Who will win: Queensland
Margin: 8 points
Player of the match: Cameron Munster
First try scorer: Will Chambers
One thing that definitely will happen: I will lock myself in my dishwasher at full-time on a 120-day wash cycle in the hope I return South Australian.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: Me ever believing in anything ever again. Unless NSW win, of course, then this is the greatest state on god’s green earth and Origin is dead because we will never lose again, ever.
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 8 points
Player of the match: Reagan Campbell-Gillard
First try scorer: Greg Inglis
One thing that definitely will happen: David Klemmer will have free licence once he takes to the field… and he’ll use it.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: The Melbourne crowd screaming at referees to ‘get em onside’. It’s too difficult to follow.
Who will win: Queensland. Queensland always win.
Margin: With three seconds remaining.
Player of the match: A Trbojevic
First try scorer: The other Trbojevic
One thing that definitely will happen: A Melbourne spectator will claim they’ve shown up to watch a game of ‘rugby’.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: Any Melbourne reader understanding the point I just made in my previous answer.
Who will win: New South Wales, as was the case last year, will provide an entire state with a few weeks’ worth of (what is likely false) hope by prevailing over a Queensland team that appears to be held together by band-aids.
Margin: Again, much like last year, the Blues will come out hungry and put on a cricket score… Well, a NSW Origin cricket score – let’s say they’ll get up by 10-12 points.
Player of the match: Boyd Cordner has admittedly played below his usual high standards this season, but Phil Gould’s suggestion he doesn’t deserve to be there will have him fired up. Kid’ll play a classic captain’s knock.
First try scorer: Valentine Holmes. He can argue that he’s a fullback ’til the cows come home, but the fact is he’s the best winger in the game and – if his efforts for the Kangaroos in the World Cup are anything to go by – will probably end his career with a thousand representative meat pies.
One thing that definitely will happen: James Roberts will do something magic to have NSW fans screaming at their telly in jubilation.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: James Roberts will be error-free and at no stage have NSW fans screaming at their telly in frustration.
Who will win: New South Wales
Margin: 13 points
Player of the match: David Klemmer
First try scorer: Boyd Cordner
One thing that definitely will happen: Greg Inglis and Will Chambers will have their hands full with the New South Wales centre pairing of James Roberts and Latrell Mitchell.
One thing that definitely won’t happen: The referees make it through the game in anonymity thanks to perfect interpretations in all the key moments.
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