The New South Wales Blues have an opportunity to put the 2018 State of Origin series away at home tonight. Standing in their way are the Queensland Maroons. Here to tell you who will come out on top at 10pm on Sunday is The Roar‘s NRL expert tipping panel.
The Blues might have won the opening game, but it means very little in the context of the series unless they can turn it into a 2-0 advantage.
With Game 3 set to be played at Suncorp Stadium – a ground where the Blues find it extremely difficult to win – it almost feels like this might as well be must-win for the boys in sky blue.
More Origin 2:
» TIM GORE: Baby Blues end the Maroon dynasty
» The Liebke ratings
» Nine talking points
» Match report: Blues take the series
» WATCH: Video highlights
» Re-live the match with our live blog
However, they will come into the match as deserved favourites after a thumping 22-12 win over the Maroons in Game 1 on the hallowed turf of the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
The Blues have been forced into a single change to their State of Origin team, with Matt Prior a surprise selection over Reagan Campbell-Gillard, who is out with a jaw injury.
In the Queensland camp, Billy Slater is back from an injury. He replaces Michael Morgan at the back, with Anthony Milford replaced on the bench as the utility by debutant and boom Newcastle Knights rookie fullback Kalyn Ponga.
Don’t forget to submit your tips on the form below by 5pm (AEST) to be part of The Crowd as you take on the experts.
Over to the tips.
Tip: New South Wales by 4
With just minutes left in Origin 2 last year, New South Wales were a heartbeat away from a 2-0 series lead. How different things are now. Coach gone, 12 Origin debutants and a whole new Blue attitude.
Before this series began I thought Queensland’s experience would trump youthful excitement but Game I in Melbourne showed that the Blues are well and truly up for a game. The Maroons need to find a spark beyond running out of the line and decking blokes. They were shown up by the speed of the blues backs which kept Greg Inglis and company on the back foot all night. They weren’t helped by some really bad options ether (kicking on the third tackle is one thing, but Will Chambers does it? Come on, man.)
Kevin Walters’ team kept things tight on the scoreboard but I’m just not convinced the maroons were in the game. They were like a prizefighter desperately hanging on until the bell for round after round.
For me, the outcome of this series now hangs on Cam Munster and Ben Hunt. Queensland were found wanting in attack and they need to be grabbed by the collar and dragged around the field with support from a much deeper and varied kicking game.
Constant bombs to Tommy Turbo’s wing because he dropped a ball weeks ago isn’t a strategy. Especially when it’s obvious that he’s taking them cleanly on the night. Is Hunt the halfback to take control? We’ll find out.
The Blues, on the other hand, need to stay in control of themselves. Queensland won’t panic and will give consistent effort. New South Wales rode in waves in Melbourne and at points were saved by a maroon error or a bad option. Man for man, New South Wales have the edge. It’s all for them to take.
I’ve got the blues, barely hanging on after an early lead. But this game should be an absolute belter.
First try-scorer: Prior
Man of the match: De Belin
Latrell Mitchell of the Blues scores a try against Ben Hunt (Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Tip: New South Wales by 20
Why would you ever try and write off the Maroons? It’s a fools game, and they have a history of making their opponents from the south look stupid on the big stage. Just remember when they did exactly that last year.
If you look at last year, they brought superstar Billy Slater back, replaced Nate Myles, Sam Thaiday, Aiden Guerra and Jacob Lillyman with Tim Glasby, Jarrod Wallace, Coen Hess and Gavin Cooper. It proved to be more than enough for them to dominate the final two hours of the series and take their 11th crown in 12 years.
However, they haven’t made the same changes this year. An out of form Dylan Napa has been retained, as has the ageing Gavin Cooper. No Cameron Smith, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk or Michael Morgan isn’t going to help them along their merry way either.
Oppopsing them though are a team who are no longer chockers with virgins. This is a team who can win the State of Origin series. A team with their tails up and a team who, with mongrel, grunt and a heap of speed playing in front of their home crowd should win the series. They should beat Queensland.
I can’t see the Maroons – as brave as they are – being able to deny the Blues victory.
First try-scorer: Tom Trbojevic
Man of the match: James Maloney
Tip: New South Wales by 4
Queensland missed Billy Slater in Game 1. They missed his organisation in defence and his support play in attack. Had Slater played, Queensland may have capitalised on some of the many opportunities they generated through their relentless line speed and punishing defence, particularly in the second half.
But it was a mistake for the Maroons to pick him for Game 2. As they demonstrated in the series opener, the Blues are going to score points. And lots of them. Queensland’s only hope of winning this game and keeping the series alive is to try and go with them. Which is where I believe they missed a trick in selecting Billy.
Don’t get me wrong, Slater is a brilliant attacking player. But just like Cooper Cronk is discovering, that brilliance is a lot more difficult to manufacture without the other two amigos. Much of Billy’s attacking arsenal comes from structured set pieces and cerebral support play, both of which will be harder to execute with an unfamiliar 7 and 9, not to mentioned a dodgy hamstring.
From a New South Wales perspective, I’m sure Brad Fittler and his players are quietly relieved that Kalyn Ponga in on the bench instead of in the number 1 jersey. Not having to account for the Newcastle livewire simplifies things, allowing Fittler to keep the same structure and game plan which worked in game 1.
So it’ll be a matter of rinse and repeat for the Blues. Punch it through the middle to tire out the Maroon forwards, shift it to the edges whenever possible to utilise the speed of their outside backs, and remain focused for the full 80 minutes. The Queenslanders know what to expect. The only question is whether they are good enough to stop it.
First try-scorer: James Maloney
Man of the match: Matt Prior
Tip: New South Wales by 6
Let’s get one thing straight right off the bat. The Blues were far from perfect in the series opener, but it was one of their better Origin games over the last decade, with a halves combination in control and a fast, agile pack dominating a game played at a much higher pace than any of the others Cameron Smith controlled over the years.
Without him, Queensland looked a little bit lost at both ends of the park and it ended up showing on the final scoreboard in Melbourne.
Now, the series moving to Sydney means there will be more dew on the ground, more moisture floating around and it’ll slow the pace of the game down just enough to bring Queensland back onto almost level terms up front. The Blues pack is outrageously strong, but they can be reigned in.
The Maroons must focus on no errors and a domination up the middle in terms of both possession and territory if they are going to compete with Brad Fittler’s mob.
The Blues, with Nathan Cleary and Damien Cook making superb Origin debuts to go with James Tedesco’s outstanding performance at the back and James Maloney’s control during the final half hour of the game looked like a well-oiled machine at times.
Comparing them to the Maroons was like chalk and cheese if we are honest, but then the margin was only ten points.
Still, the Blues will be desperate to wrap the series up here rather than having to take it back to Brisbane for Game 3, where, as we have seen before, they will surely go in as underdogs and probably come away with the wrong result.
On the back of that desperation and a home ground advantaghe with a crowd who will be paying for Maroon blood, the Blues should get it done and set up the series victory witha game to spare.
First try-scorer: Tyson Frizell
Man of the match: Nathan Cleary
| Origin 2 | AJ | Tim | Tom | Scott | The Crowd |
| NSW vs QLD | NSW | NSW | NSW | NSW | NSW |
| Margin | 4 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| First try-scorer | Prior | T.Trbojevic | Prior | Frizell | Holmes |
| Man of the match | De Belin | Maloney | Maloney | Cleary | Slater |
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