Cameron Rose wrote last Tuesday about the five teams he felt were the most legit contenders to focus on this season, and they were the most obvious choices: Geelong, West Coast, Collingwood, GWS and Brisbane.
Is that the best five, or indeed the only five? Is there a distinct separation between those teams and the rest?
Our meta-rankings after four games has those five teams rated first, second, third, fourth and eighth. Brisbane started the season in 13th, and are quickly working their way upwards. In between sat Hawthorn, Richmond and Port Adelaide.
Let’s look at the records of those five clubs on top, along with those three contenders.
Geelong defeated Collingwood by seven, waxed a terrible Demons team by 80, and won at Adelaide by 24. Edged out by the Giants at home on Saturday, so 1-1 against the other four top teams.
Brisbane upset West Coast 102-58 at the Gabba, did what they had to at North Melbourne to win by 20, and then passed Port on the fly to win by 17. Played at Essendon and had the first of a handful of flat games that such a young team will have in a season.
West Coast lost embarrassingly at Brisbane, came back to slam GWS at home by 52 and then handle Collingwood by 22. Successful in the Derby last weekend.
GWS enjoyed a big win over a weak Essendon at home, lost at Optus to West Coast, and routed a depleted Richmond. Went to Geelong and watched their hearts grow three sizes that day.
Collingwood lost by seven to Geelong (not that embarrassing), beat Richmond sans Alex Rance by 44, and lost by 22 to West Coast. Defeated a strong Bulldog unit by 14 on Friday.
Within the five, the Cats are 1-1, the Lions are 1-0, the Eagles are 2-1 (tough opening schedule!), GWS was 1-1 and the Magpies are 0-2.
Among those five teams, there were no losses outside the fivesome of contenders except for Brisbane, which is probably why they trail the others.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
What about the other possible contenders?
Hawthorn are 2-2 overall, the losses coming outside the five to the Bulldogs and Saints. They did defeat Adelaide, however. Haven’t even played a top team.
Port Adelaide beat Melbourne (yawn), Carlton (yawn), and lost to a VFL-ish Richmond. Lost to its only top five opponent, Brisbane, by 17.
Richmond defeated Carlton, and lost Rance. Wiped up by Collingwood, lost Riewoldt. Waxed by GWS, lost Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin. Somehow exposed Port Adelaide through sheer willpower on Saturday night, but it’s still nearly impossible to imagine the Tigers making noise with this line up in 2019.
They might miraculously make it back to finals, and more credit to Damien Hardwick if they do, but they won’t win it all.
Let’s include those Western Bulldogs that took Hawthorn off the map. Yes, they defeated the Hawks in the fourth quarter with nine straight goals, but their other games were a victory over Sydney (yawn) and a loss to the Suns.
And then a loss to the Magpies as well? No, they’re not ready for prime time yet.
Adelaide? The pre-season favorite lost to Geelong (0-1 against the five) and Hawthorn, but defeated Sydney. Not a lot there to brag about, even before their embarrassing loss to North on Saturday.
Essendon might deserve consideration now, having caught Brisbane on a bad day on Saturday. But their first two losses were so bad, and a defeat of Melbourne doesn’t alleviate those. It’s far too soon to credit them with more than one good win.
Even if you wanted to expand the pool further, who would you include?
Fremantle’s 141 points in Round 1 has been countermanded by a total of 185 since then.
Gold Coast have been impressive by Gold Coast standards but they’re hardly a serious threat until they take out a top-five club.
The Saints have tripped the Suns by one, lost to Freo by five, and beaten Hawthorn and Essendon? No worries yet.
And no one else is above 1-3.
It wouldn’t be hard to simply shelve the rest of the pretenders behind those top five at this point.
Things could change in a single round, but until they do, I’m with Cameron on this.
Only one team has been favoured in all four of its games to open the 2019 season. You might be surprised to learn that it’s the 1-3 Adelaide Crows.
Only one team has been an underdog in all four of its 2019 games so far. It won’t shock you this time: it’s Carlton. Currently they’re 3-1 against the spread, despite being 0-4 overall.
Three teams were a perfect 3-0 against the spread entering Round 4: the two undefeated teams, Geelong and Brisbane, had also topped the spread in each of their wins.
Both lost their first games (straight up and ATS) within minutes of each other Saturday afternoon.
The third team won’t surprise you either. Gold Coast are just one point from being undefeated as well, despite having been four to six goal underdogs each time.
(AAP Image/Darren England)
Ironically, they lost ATS this weekend despite winning the game. We posted with a -4.5 spread, and they won by two. So now every club has lost a game against the spread.
Richmond and Melbourne were the two teams who started 0-3 against the spread, but the Demons broke their duck on Thursday night against Sydney, while the Tigers pulled off the upset in Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon.
All 18 clubs have now won against the spread in the opening four games, too.
Brisbane vs Collingwood
Betting Line says: Magpies by 11.5.
ELO-Following Football ratings suggest: Magpies by 6.
Percentage/Home Field Method predicts: Brisbane to win at home.
The Buffalo believes: Collingwood are good, probably better than Brisbane.
But if the Lions are really taking that step into the top eight, at least, then they’ll rebound and win at home against an excellent team, as they beat West Coast in Round 1.
Brisbane, barely, because they’re at the Gabba.
North Melbourne vs Essendon
Betting Line says: Bombers by 11.5.
ELO-Following Football ratings suggest: Bombers by 16.
Percentage/Home Field Method predicts: Essendon’s percentage gives them the win.
The Buffalo believes: Essendon are figuring it out. Bombers by 20.
West Coast vs Port Adelaide
Betting Line says: Eagles by 28.5.
ELO-Following Football ratings suggest: Eagles by 32.5.
Percentage/Home Field Method predicts: West Coast take it at home.
The Buffalo believes: West Coast are too good at home for just about everybody. Eagles by 15.
GWS vs Fremantle
Betting Line says: Giants by 33.5.
ELO-Following Football ratings suggest: Giants by 43.5.
Percentage/Home Field Method predicts: GWS at home win it.
The Buffalo believes: See my comments about Brisbane, in reverse.
If they’re really one of the top four, they won’t let down their guard against an inferior roster.
If they allow the Dockers to stay in the game past the middle of the third, they could lose.
I’m taking the Giants – the margin depends on how long Freo chooses to fight the inevitable.
Melbourne vs St Kilda
Betting Line says: Demons by 18.5.
ELO-Following Football ratings suggest: the same.
Percentage/Home Field Method predicts: St Kilda, because of the percentages.
The Buffalo believes: Well, I’m definitely taking the under. I don’t know if the Saints will win this, but if Melbourne are no better than Hawthorn are right now, St Kilda aren’t three goals worse than the Demons are.
I was right taking the Saints last week. I’ll take a flyer on them in this one, too.
Richmond vs Sydney
Betting Line says: Tigers by 14.5.
ELO-Following Football ratings suggest: Tigers by 11.
Percentage/Home Field Method predicts: Richmond’s marginal HFA gives them the edge.
The Buffalo believes: Sydney needs this game, and they play better away from home. Swans by a goal.
Does that mean I don’t yet believe in the reconfigured Richmond? Not as much as I don’t believe in Port.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton
Betting Line says: Bulldogs by 18.5.
ELO-Following Football ratings suggest: Doggies by 22.
Percentage/Home Field Method predicts: the Bulldogs on percentage.
The Buffalo believes: the Doggies have wins against Sydney and Hawthorn, an upset loss to the Suns and an expected loss to Collingwood.
Meanwhile, Carlton are 3-1 against the spread, the loss being by two points in the Sydney game.
It seems like the Blues should once again be more competitive than the tipsters think, but not enough so that they actually win. Dogs by less than three goals.
Adelaide vs Gold Coast
Betting Line says: Crows by 28.5.
ELO-Following Football ratings suggest: Crows by 37.
Percentage/Home Field Method predicts: Adelaide’s percentage is well below 100, while Gold Coast won’t stray far from 100 all year, it seems. So this system favors the Suns.
The Buffalo believes: The Suns are good, but this game is more about Adelaide than Gold Coast.
Who are the Crows now? I can’t see Adelaide beating anyone by 37 this week, and Gold Coast are playing too well to be annihilated without a tremendous performance by the opposition.
We all figured the Crows would be more than capable of tremendous performances this season, but we haven’t seen it, so I’ll take the points.
Gold Coast won’t lose by more than single digits, and they could very well win it.
Hawthorn vs Geelong
Betting Line says: Cats by 14.5 points.
ELO-Following Football ratings suggest: Cats by 19.5.
Percentage/Home Field Method predicts: Cats.
The Buffalo believes: Geelong are better than the Hawks this season, and they’ll be hopping mad about giving away the game last week. Cats by 40.
Last week and for the season
Betting Line: 4 of 9, and 17 of 36 overall (less than the coin flip).
ELO-Following Football ratings: 5 of 9, and 18 of 36 overall (same as your toddler).
Percentage/Home Field Method: 5 of 9, and 19 of 36 overall (bragging territory in 2019).
The Buffalo: 4 of 9, and 17 of 36 overall (at least I’m doing no worse than the professionals).
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At least one of these was surely worth a second look!
The star forward hit his head on the ground after a heavy fall, but was allowed to stay on the field.
Doesn't sound like they were overly happy!
The old hand to the ear from Kenny!
