The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Super Rugby super stats preview: Round 9 debrief and Round 10 predictions

Autoplay in... 6 (Cancel)
Up Next No more videos! Playlist is empty -
Replay
Cancel
Next
Roar Rookie
18th April, 2019
5
1704 Reads

Finally, a semi-decent weekend where we don’t look like we predict from cave drawings.

Super Rugby Round 9 debfief

Super Rugby Round 8 Predicted vs Actual
Season accuracy: 35 from 59 (59.3%) Season margin of error: 13.8
Weekend accuracy: 4 from 6 (66.7%) Weekend margin error: 16.17
Teams Actual score predicted score correct margin of error
Rebels 24 24 No 19
Stormers 41 22
Crusaders 43 37 Yes 11
Highlanders 17 22
Bulls 32 45 Yes 5
Reds 17 35
Chiefs 33 35 Yes 10
Blues 29 21
Sharks 17 35 No 42
Jaguares 51 15
Brumbies 31 20 Yes 10
Lions 20 19

Round 10 matches and predictions

So, here are the algorithm’s predictions for the next round of Super Rugby.

Super Rugby Round 9 Predictions
Season accuracy: 35 correct from 59: 59.3% Season margin error: 13.80
Teams Predicted Score Chance of Winning Prediction
Chiefs 36 69.60% Chiefs win by 8
Lions 28 28.60%
Sunwolves 20 13.30% Hurricanes win by 15
Hurricanes 35 85.10%
Sharks 32 80.20% Sharks win by 12
Reds 20 18.30%
Highlanders 34 78.30% Highlanders win by 11
Blues 23 20.20%
Waratahs 36 79.10% Waratahs win by 11
Rebels 25 19.30%
Stormers 29 67.20% Stormers win by 6
Brumbies 23 31%

Chiefs vs Lions

The Chiefs are three wins to the good after beating the in-form Blues (yes you heard that right, the Blues are in form) in a tight encounter 33-29.

How will they go against their South African opponents? The Lions haven’t been great recently, losing two on the bounce, first suffering a heavy defeat against the Sharks (5-42 at home) and then losing to the Brumbies in Australia last week.

Advertisement
Advertisement

We have had a look at the previous results between these two sides.

Head to head

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts Avg Pts
Chiefs 10 7 3 0 368 264 70% 36.8 36.8
Lions 10 3 7 0 264 368 30% 26.4 26.4
Date Home Score Score Away
3/5/2016 Chiefs 32 36 Lions
5/3/2014 Chiefs 38 8 Lions
5/5/2012 Chiefs 34 21 Lions
4/23/2011 Lions 30 34 Chiefs
2/19/2010 Lions 65 72 Chiefs
4/4/2009 Chiefs 36 29 Lions
5/10/2008 Lions 33 27 Chiefs
3/16/2007 Chiefs 34 7 Lions
2/17/2006 Lions 21 16 Chiefs
4/15/2005 Chiefs 45 14 Lions

The algorithm has the Chiefs to win by eight at home. Fingers crossed for them.

Sunwolves vs Hurricanes

The Sunwolves have home advantage for Round 10 but have had mixed results when playing in familiar territory.

Here we can see the recent games the Sunwolves have hosted. Not great. However, it is worth noting they play in a variety of ‘home’ locations so perhaps the actual advantage that is inferred by playing at home is lessened.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Sunwolves last ten games at home

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Sunwolves 11 3 8 0 296 388 27% 26.91
Opposition 11 8 3 0 388 296 73% 35.27
Date Home Score Score Away
3/16/2019 Sunwolves 31 34 Reds
2/23/2019 Sunwolves 30 31 Waratahs
5/19/2018 Sunwolves 26 23 Stormers
5/12/2018 Sunwolves 63 28 Reds
4/14/2018 Sunwolves 10 24 Blues
4/7/2018 Sunwolves 29 50 Waratahs
3/24/2018 Sunwolves 10 61 Chiefs
3/3/2018 Sunwolves 17 37 Rebels
2/24/2018 Sunwolves 25 32 Brumbies
7/15/2017 Sunwolves 48 21 Blues
5/27/2017 Sunwolves 7 47 Cheetahs

The Hurricanes come off a narrow 28-31 win against the Highlanders, taking their win tally to five. However, they haven’t been the most consistent team this season and will come into this game as strong favourites winning their last meeting 43-15 in Wellington.

The algorithm has the Hurricanes to win by 14.

Sharks vs Reds

The Sharks got mauled last weekend away from home against the Jaguares.

Although the Argentinian side have been playing well enough, few will have seen the 51-17 scoreline coming.

Advertisement
Advertisement

The Reds have struggled to win away from home, only winning two games outside their home ground in the last ten they’ve played. They also lost last weekend (at home) to the Bulls.

Reds away form

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Reds 10 2 8 0 234 349 20% 23.4
Opposition 10 8 2 0 349 234 80% 34.9
Date Home Score Score Away
3/16/2019 Sunwolves 31 34 Reds
3/9/2019 Waratahs 28 17 Reds
2/22/2019 Highlanders 36 31 Reds
6/29/2018 Blues 39 16 Reds
5/18/2018 Hurricanes 38 34 Reds
5/12/2018 Sunwolves 63 28 Reds
4/14/2018 Waratahs 37 16 Reds
4/7/2018 Brumbies 45 21 Reds
3/24/2018 Stormers 25 19 Reds
3/17/2018 Jaguares 7 18 Reds

With the Reds away in this round, the algorithm has the Sharks to win by 12.

Highlanders vs Blues

The Highlanders lost to the Hurricanes in Round 8 and then lost to the Crusaders in Round 9.

Both are good teams that there is no shame in losing to, but given the Highlanders are currently bottom of the NZ conference they will be looking for a big win here. They need to grab maximum points and make sure they don’t lose to another Kiwi opposition in the process.

Advertisement
Advertisement

The Blues will take some confidence from their win over the Waratahs in Round 8. They also played well enough in their last round loss to the Chiefs. That game could have gone either way.

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Highlanders 10 7 3 0 289 230 70% 28.9
Blues 10 3 7 0 230 289 30% 23
Date Home Score Score Away
3/22/2019 Blues 33 26 Highlanders
4/20/2018 Blues 16 34 Highlanders
2/23/2018 Highlanders 41 34 Blues
4/8/2017 Highlanders 26 20 Blues
3/11/2017 Blues 12 16 Highlanders
2/26/2016 Blues 33 31 Highlanders
6/12/2015 Blues 7 44 Highlanders
4/18/2015 Highlanders 30 24 Blues
3/29/2014 Blues 30 12 Highlanders
2/22/2014 Highlanders 29 21 Blues

History is clearly on the Highlanders’ side. The algorithm has them to win by 13 at home.

Waratahs vs Rebels

The Waratahs were rocked in Round 8 losing to the Blues, a trend which dates back to 2016, both home and away.

Blues wins since 2016

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Blues 4 4 0 0 130 111 100% 32.5
Waratahs 4 0 4 0 111 130 0% 27.75
Advertisement
Advertisement
Date Home Score Score Away
4/6/2019 Blues 32 29 Waratahs
5/5/2018 Waratahs 21 24 Blues
5/6/2017 Waratahs 33 40 Blues
7/15/2016 Blues 34 28 Waratahs

The Rebels also are in damage control for this round after losing at home to the Stormers 24-41.

We have had a look at the previous matches between these two teams below.

Head to head the last ten games

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Waratahs 10 8 2 0 332 217 80% 33.2
Rebels 10 2 8 0 217 332 20% 21.7
Date Home Score Score Away
6/29/2018 Rebels 26 31 Waratahs
3/18/2018 Waratahs 51 27 Rebels
5/21/2017 Waratahs 50 23 Rebels
3/24/2017 Rebels 25 32 Waratahs
4/3/2016 Waratahs 17 21 Rebels
4/25/2015 Waratahs 18 16 Rebels
2/20/2015 Rebels 28 38 Waratahs
5/23/2014 Rebels 19 41 Waratahs
3/21/2014 Waratahs 32 8 Rebels
5/24/2013 Rebels 24 22 Waratahs

The Waratahs have clearly dominated the recent fixtures, with the last Rebels win coming back in 2016. The algorithm agrees and has the Waratahs to win by 11.

Stormers vs Brumbies

Advertisement
Advertisement

The Stormers played Rebels, who sit on top of the Australian conference, last weekend and won handsomely.

However, the Brumbies also won against last year’s finalists – the Lions – 31-20. Good credentials for both sides.

How’s this game going to go? We have had a look at the previous results between these two sides.

Head to head the last ten games

P W L D F A Win % Avg Pts
Stormers 10 5 5 0 201 196 50% 20.1
Brumbies 10 5 5 0 196 201 50% 19.6
Date Home Score Score Away
3/19/2016 Stormers 31 11 Brumbies
6/20/2015 Stormers 19 39 Brumbies
5/9/2015 Stormers 25 24 Brumbies
3/22/2014 Brumbies 25 15 Stormers
3/23/2013 Stormers 35 22 Brumbies
5/28/2011 Brumbies 3 16 Stormers
2/26/2010 Stormers 17 19 Brumbies
4/11/2009 Brumbies 17 10 Stormers
5/3/2008 Stormers 20 10 Brumbies
3/9/2007 Brumbies 26 13 Stormers

The history is tight, with both sides winning equally. However, most have been won by the home side. The algorithm is going with the home side again and has the Stormers by seven.

What do you think? Leave a comment below and give us your thoughts.

Advertisement
Advertisement