My initial thought is the less we talk about our weekly predictions, the better. But since I’m a man of honour and responsibility…
In my attempt at reverse psychology, after five weeks of universal sub-50 per cent tipping, I carefully selected each game’s expected winner and then intentionally chose the other team, expecting the same number of upsets as each of the previous weeks.
So instead, the favourites all won this week, and I literally went zero for nine in The Roar’s tipping contest in a week when the average score of the 21 systems we monitor was 8.3 correct.
Luckily, I didn’t have the intestinal fortitude to tip that way anywhere else, so I ended up with eights and nines (I had faith in St Kilda) in my other contests. But it’s destroyed my belief that I have any idea whatsoever as to what’s going on in the AFL this season.
So, to reassure myself that I’m not the only one puzzled, let’s look at the meta-predictions from the start of the season and see how they’re panning out so far.
The quotes included are from an article I wrote for The Roar about those predictions on February 22. These were from the collective wisdom of the masses, which I’d collected and averaged out into five tiers of expectations.
Tier one contained the four teams with the most serious title aspirations, with Richmond leading the pack of Melbourne, West Coast and Collingwood.
“History suggests that one of the four will falter terribly and fail to make finals, while a team from below this tier will, at the very least, spend the year among the remaining three and get a double chance at the title this spring.”
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/AFL Media/Getty Images)
At the top of the season, we worried injuries would mean that faltering team would be Richmond, but they seem to have used the depth they supposedly lacked to surprise us and slot right back into that top group of teams. West Coast and Collingwood certainly deserve their spots, although the front-loaded scheduling the Eagles have faced have forced them to hang on for dear life.
Obviously, Melbourne ended up being the “terrible falterer”, and don’t show any signs of resurrecting this season.
Who was the team from below the tier who’s replaced them? Pick one of the five we listed in tier two:
A) Adelaide? No, although they have managed to drag themselves back into finals contention.
B) Essendon? No, see above.
C) Hawthorn? Doubt it. They haven’t looked strong enough to even make finals.
D) GWS? They may very well end up being top four, and possibly a second correct answer.
E) Geelong? Bingo
Geelong’s made me look foolish for saying how much I questioned all our own projections about them going as high as 18-4 this season, and how I had them around 12th or 13th because the old guard was too old and the new guard was too new.
Instead, the old guard – well, at least Patrick Dangerfield and the rejuvenated, repositioned Gary Ablett – have been superb, and a nearly-elite Tim Kelly, a reborn Gary Rohan, and a host of talent across the field has made them the cream of the crop after six games. Every system we use for the Meta-Ratings has them not just first but head and shoulders above the crowd, and some are including the ribcage and more.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
“Any one of those five could end up in the top four and maybe as a grand finalist. Any one of them could be 2016 Fremantle redux. And it’s probable that at least one of these five will fit each profile – remember, in the 28-year history of the AFL, there have always been two to four teams move into finals who weren’t there the year before. For once, we’ve corporately picked two: Essendon and Adelaide.”
Essendon and Adelaide do indeed sound like they’ll be at least knocking on the finals door, and of course Geelong and the Giants are almost guaranteed to make the eight at this point.
Only Hawthorn might be questionable, and that only because there are a minimum of 13 teams competing for those eight spots at present. None of the five seem to be potential spooners – maybe Melbourne’s already filled that niche – but between two and five of the five will make finals.
We called tier three “O Ye Of Little Faith” because very few predictors thought they’d make finals. Sydney (tenth place) and North Melbourne (11th) seem to be verifying and ‘exceeding’ our expectations, but 12th and 13th places fell to Port Adelaide and Brisbane.
Both teams are currently 4-2, inside the eight, and making strong arguments for finishing in the second group of four at the end of the season. Both teams have potential game-breaking youth on the field – Connor Rozee is a Rising Star favourite for the Power, and a slew of second and third-year talent is maturing in front of our eyes for the Lions.
Either or both teams could fade in the last half of the season – Port’s practised that before – but then, so could any of the other eleven teams in the competitive pack right now.
Interestingly, almost nobody thought the Power would threaten finals this season, although recent interviews claim the PAFC powers-that-be were aiming their three-year plan for 2019 the whole time. It sounds like reverse engineering to me – “we’re having success, so we’ll say we’ve been planning for this the whole time” – but don’t listen to me. I’m the one who went Owen-Nine last week.
Tier four was labelled the easybeats, but three and a half of them haven’t been. St Kilda are a goal away from being 5-1. Fremantle sit in second place. Carlton may only have one win, but easybeat is the last phrase you’d pick to describe them. And the Doggies started out the season with the swagger they displayed against Richmond to end 2018, although their lack of forward height and centre bounce clearance success has made them much easier to beat.
And tier five? Gold Coast were given a cushy opening schedule, and they displayed the same start-of-the-year success that they often do.
What we’ve been left with is a team that’s sitting at 3-3 right now, one of the 13 teams in the ‘.500 or better’ club, but also sitting dead last with an anchor on every metric we follow for the Meta-Ratings. Somehow, they’re still the betting favourite for the wooden spoon, despite a .500 record.
So how close are we to recognising our top eight? Here’s how long it took to get the finalists into the top eight to stay during each of the past four years:
2018: Geelong was out of the eight until Round 22. there was never a point before that which had all eight finalists in the top eight. The number of eventual finalists that resided in the top eight that round was four in Round 1 and five in Round 2. It first reached six in Round 4 and seven in Round 15.
2017: The final eight didn’t appear until Sunday of the final round, as Melbourne fans have been trying to forget ever since. The Demons were in the eight virtually all season, but in the end it was the Eagles who took the final slot by upsetting minor premiers Adelaide by just enough to out-percentage Melbourne. The number of eventual finalists in the eight was six in Round 1, and it first reached seven in Round 3 (all except Sydney).
2016: A strange year. By Round 6, the final eight had risen to the top and basically stayed put, stretching a gap as big as three full games between eighth and ninth places. If it hadn’t been for North Melbourne’s late-season collapse, there might have been a four-game gap between eighth and ninth place.
2015: Adelaide’s Round 22 victory clinched the top eight teams for finals, and Fremantle’s guaranteed minor premiership gave Ross Lyon the idea to send a back-up team to Port Adelaide for their final game – a choice that led to the league-wide bye before finals now in place. In fact, the eight was in place by Round 20, when the Crows passed Geelong.
The season started with five finalists in the top eight, and six in Round 2. Round 13 had seven of the eventual finalists (as GWS dropped out and the Bulldogs climbed back in), and then the first time the final eight appears together atop the ladder is in Round 17, when Collingwood fell from grace.
On average, the opening ladder has about five of the eventual finalists in the top eight positions; it takes until about Round 4 to feel certain that six of the eventual finalists are represented, and it’s not at all consistent as to when we hit seven or eight finalists: sometimes it’s in April; sometimes it’s not until August!
Which six or seven of the four- and five-win teams are staying there for finals, and which one or two are destined to be replaced? St Kilda and Brisbane, maybe Fremantle? Or is it too soon to say?
(Yes. Yes it is.)
So what’s in store for Round 7? Let’s look at the oddsmakers, the ELO-Following Football numbers, the percentage/home field advantage predictions, and those of the 0-9 Buffalo…
Oddsmakers – 8 of 9 last week, 30/54 this season
∙ Collingwood by 24.5 over Port Adelaide.
∙ Hawthorn/Melbourne too close to call.
∙ GWS by 29.5 over St Kilda.
∙ Brisbane by 14.5 over Sydney.
∙ Richmond by 24.5 over Bulldogs.
∙ West Coast by 46.5 over Gold Coast.
∙ North Melbourne by 1.5 over Carlton.
∙ Geelong by 12.5 over Essendon.
∙ Adelaide by 21.5 over Fremantle.
ELO-Following Football – 8 of 9 last week, 31/54 this season
∙ Collingwood by 15.8
∙ Melbourne by 1.6
∙ Giants by 27.4
∙ Brisbane by 12.4
∙ Richmond by 26.5
∙ West Coast by 45.5
∙ North by 3.9
∙ Geelong by 11.2
∙ Adelaide by 18.1
Percentage/home field advantage – 8 of 9 last week; 29/54 this season
Collingwood, Hawthorn, Giants, Brisbane, Richmond, Eagles, Carlton, Geelong, Fremantle.
Myself – 0 of 9 last week, officially; 22/54 this season
∙ Collingwood by less than the 24 points offered.
∙ Hawthorn to win plus however many points they eventually get up to (it won’t stay as a toss-up).
∙ Giants, and take that 1-39 bet if you can find it.
∙ Take the over for Brisbane against the faltering Swans.
∙ Richmond will take out the Doggies comfortably, but I’m not sure how big this roster can push the margin.
∙ West Coast will want to win big over the Suns; think eight, nine goals.
∙ Carlton will beat the Kangaroos outright, probably by double digits.
∙ It’s hard not to take the Cats and the over against anyone at home these days, even as well as the Dons are playing, so Cats plus.
∙ Finally, I really don’t know what to think about the Crows and Dockers – no bet feels “safe” to me. The consensus bet is Adelaide, so I suppose lean that way, but I have zero faith in either team winning or losing.
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