As always, I have a meta-answer for the question at hand.
Cameron Rose wrote an article on Tuesday that argued seven of our eight finalists would probably be Geelong, Collingwood, Richmond, GWS, Essendon, Port Adelaide and West Coast.
The eighth, he suggested, could very well be the winner of this weekend’s Fremantle vs Adelaide game.
The implications of my own article on Monday were that six or seven of the likely finalists were already in the top eight, and that five of those were Geelong, Collingwood, GWS, Port Adelaide and Richmond, while one or two of Fremantle, St Kilda and Brisbane would also be there, and the other one or two slots would be filled with teams currently 3-3, meaning Adelaide, Essendon, Hawthorn, West Coast and Gold Coast.
This got me thinking: what are other forecasts saying?
After all, my role in the life of The Roar’s footy community is to collect the common wisdom and distill it for easy consumption.
So here’s what my usual sources are saying will happen over the next 17 weeks…
The Arc (Matt Cowgill)
His top shelf, like all of us, has Cats on it. Cats like lounging in high places. This season especially.
They’re given an 80 per cent chance of a top four finish, while the Magpies, Giants and Tigers are all at about 50 per cent for the double chance, with Port at 40 per cent right behind them.
The other three teams he gives a better-than-not chance of playing in September are West Coast and Essendon, both about 63 per cent, and Adelaide in eighth, just slightly above Brisbane – 52 per cent to 45 per cent.
The Saints, Dockers and Hawks are all down around 40 per cent or so, while Gold Coast’s chances of making finals are just 3.3 per cent in the estimation of the Arc.
(Photo by Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Footymaths Institute
At FMI, Geelong are currently given a 95 per cent chance of earning the top seeding 17 weeks down the road. Collingwood and GWS split the other five per cent.
Be that as it may, those three teams are also at 90-plus per cent for a top four post.
The fourth double chance would go to either Essendon or Richmond.
The other three teams with over a 60 per cent probability of making finals are Adelaide, Port and West Coast.
Matter Of Stats (Tony Corke)
His current forecast for the final ladder gives the Cats just a 40 per cent shot at the minor premiership.
The top six all look relatively secure, with a 66 per cent or higher of making the finals: Geelong, Collingwood, GWS, Richmond, Port Adelaide and Brisbane.
Spots seven through nine are tight, however.
Essendon are projected to win 11.638 games and has a 55 per cent shot at finals. St Kilda are very close: 11.636 wins and 50 per cent for finals.
Adelaide’s below those two in projected wins (11.520) but for some reason are higher than the Saints when it comes to their chance of making finals, at 52 per cent. I’m not sure how, but it probably has to do with other teams leap-frogging the two teams in question.
Potential frogs include Fremantle (42 per cent), West Coast (40 per cent), Hawthorn (34 per cent), and not Gold Coast, although the Suns are projected to finish out of the cellar, in 15th.
Plussixone (James Day)
Geelong (98 per cent chance of finals), Collingwood (86 per cent), GWS (85 per cent), Port (73 per cent), Richmond (71 per cent), Adelaide (64 per cent), West Coast (62 per cent) and then Essendon leading a close three-way race for the last finals slot above Hawthorn and Fremantle.
All three are below a 50/50 chance, sitting in the 40-45 per cent range.
Brisbane and St Kilda are projected also-rans, in the 30 per cent range, while Gold Coast’s 2.3 per cent chance mirrors their placement in 16th.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
GRAFT (Graham – Grudnuk)
His current projections put the end-of-season Cats at 17 wins, the Magpies, Giants and Tigers all at or fractionally above 14 wins for the double chance, the Power alone at 13 wins for fifth, and the Bombers, Eagles, and Crows jumbled around at the 12-win mark to fill out the play-off roster.
Next would come Hawthorn, Brisbane, St Kilda and Fremantle in that order.
As for Gold Coast? You guessed it: still dead last, easily 13 points behind the next lowest percentage.
Massey Ratings (Ken Massey)
His projected final standings are Geelong (17.55 wins), Collingwood (15.40 wins), Giants (14.87 wins), Richmond (14.69 wins), Port Adelaide (13.57 wins), West Coast (13.37 wins), Essendon (12.66 wins) and Brisbane (12.12 wins).
Following those eight teams are Freo, Adelaide, St Kilda and Hawthorn, all a game or more behind the Lions.
So no, not all that close.
Squiggle (Max Barry)
Finally, we have Squiggle’s attempt at a composite opinion for a top eight, which having read a few previous projections won’t surprise you terribly at this point.
The ladder is Geelong (17-5, 137 per cent), Collingwood (15-7, 121 per cent), GWS Giants (14-7-1, 119 per cent), Richmond (14-8, 113 per cent), Port Adelaide (13-9, 112 per cent), Essendon (12-10, 107 per cent), Adelaide (12-10, 106 per cent) and West Coast (12-10, 103 per cent).
This leaves out Brisbane (also at 12 wins), St Kilda, Fremantle and Hawthorn – all three at 11-11 – and of course Gold Coast, who Squiggle asserts have three more wins left in their season and a 17th place finish, just above Carlton.
The meta-results
Every single projection says Geelong leads a pack of five certainties. Collingwood and GWS are also certain for the double chance, probably in second and third respectively, and Richmond lead Port Adelaide for the fourth spot and the right to host the possible elimination match-up in the second week of the finals.
Going through the nine projections again, Essendon get about the equivalent of eight votes to make finals, while West Coast and Adelaide are both in the seven-vote range.
I’m hedging a bit with half-votes, but it’s not close – Brisbane would be the closest challenger with maybe three full votes, and no other team seriously considered more than once.
So there you have it: Port and Essendon hosting the Eagles and Crows in some combination in the elimination finals in week one, alongside the Cats hosting Richmond and Collingwood probably hosting the Giants in the qualifying finals.
And since we’ve now just made the next 17 weeks useless, we’ll just tell you we’re all expecting the Cats to bring a fourth 21st century title to Geelong, and you can skip those four weeks, too.
Unless, I suppose, you like watching the best athletes on the planet play the best sport on the planet.
Or you correctly assume we know as little about the future now as we did seven weeks ago.
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