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There is a theory that if something isn’t broke, you shouldn’t fix it. The AFL draft system works fine, but I am here to fix it anyway – by stealing the NBA format.
There are two problems I’m trying to resolve: what if teams intentionally produce poor results at the end of the season to improve their draft positions, and whether we should reward teams for coming last by default.
The NBA has a lottery system with ping-pong balls that randomly awards the first four picks in the next draft, with a weighted percentage to ensure the lower-performing teams have a higher chance of getting the prized picks, while higher-finishing teams have a lower chance.
To make it fairer, the lowest three teams have the same chance, so finishing last is not a guarantee to win.
I want to lift and shift this into the AFL and keep it at 14 selections as per the NBA. There are 30 teams in the NBA and only 14 participate, but I want to keep it at 14 of 18 in this format so teams that make the semi-finals will have a chance to get the No.1 draft pick, albeit a small one.
Teams that make the semi-finals and lose are either in their premiership window, just entering it or just leaving it. Adding a high draft pick to those teams isn’t a bad thing, as they could develop those players in a winning culture or accelerate the rebuild process by starting when they still have trade capital with their existing lists.
Again, ripping the maths from the NBA, the bottom three teams would have 14 per cent chance of getting pick one, then cascading down.
1. 140 combinations, 14.0 per cent chance of receiving the No. 1 pick
2. 140 combinations, 14.0 per cent
3. 140 combinations, 14.0 per cent
4. 125 combinations, 12.5 per cent
5. 105 combinations, 10.5 per cent
6. 90 combinations, 9.0 per cent
7. 75 combinations, 7.5 per cent
8. 60 combinations, 6.0 per cent
9. 45 combinations, 4.5 per cent
10. 30 combinations, 3.0 per cent
11. 20 combinations, 2.0 per cent
12. 15 combinations, 1.5 per cent
13. 10 combinations, 1.0 per cent
14. Five combinations, 0.5 per cent
Utilising this method, the worst the team finishing 18th could do is get the fifth pick overall, with the odds of that happening 47 per cent of the time. All of a sudden finishing last is not a safe prospect and teams have no incentive to be there.
Looking at the maths, you want to be in position ten or better to mathematically have a higher than 50 per cent chance of keeping the same spot or improving your selection.
This method also makes trading of future first-round draft picks more of a gamble if you think the team is a lock for finishing at the bottom. This means that trading away your future first-rounder could potentially be more dangerous, but could equally open more trade possibilities, as teams in that ‘middle of the road’ bracket aren’t trading picks eight to 12 anymore, they are trading a chance at picks one to four.
Fifth pick Dylan Stevens (AAP Image/Michael Dodge)
The worst a team can go is down five places in the first round, which is possible but will not derail a team completely.
This risk is worn by the teams at the originally pointy end of the draft, which serves again as incentive to not finish bottom of the ladder and to fight for a higher place. This format would touch the second or third-round picks though, so they would remain as start of round two or three in those selections.
One last benefit that comes up is the creation of content. People will write articles, there will be rolling news coverage, there will be podcast episodes dedicated to it, all keeping the AFL in the media outside of their regular season.
Could you imagine a precursor program to the trade period with sponsors and the like? Brings in the viewership, pays the bills.
Using a draft would disincentivise teams trying to finish closer to the bottom of the ladder, especially with the difference between the first, second and third pick of the second round not being that much different.
Using the format of equal chances for 16th, 17th and 18th also addresses the second question for rewarding the team that comes last – 18th and 16th get treated the same, so instead of being gifted the top pick, you have to battle for it.
This would make the later rounds interesting, as teams would still have contracts or renewals to play for.
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.