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Opinion
The Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide Football Club are the 2020 AFL premiership favourites.
First and second on the ladder at the start of Round 8, both clubs appear primed for a premiership tilt.
This is a new phenomenon for one of the duo.
Port have a tendency to tease yet fail to deliver. They’re often too inconsistent, too dormant, too lacklustre when it matters. Ken Hinkley has been a proverbial punching bag atop an underperforming side.
Hinkley’s position had become so dubious that both the president and the chairman of Port were forced to make public statements supporting their man, and for good reason. Port’s biggest rivals, the Adelaide Crows, had seen their coach unceremoniously sacked. It rapidly appeared that Port was heading the same direction.
That criticism was on point. Under Hinkley’s reign, the Power have made finals just three times. Hawthorn, Geelong and the Eagles – two of whom have won premierships since Hinkley began coaching – had halted their runs.
Port – when not in finals – made a habit of coming tantalisingly close. Ninth, tenth, tenth and tenth were their finishing positions in the four seasons they missed out. Last year, the Power lost six of the eleven games after the bye to blow a chance at finals.
Despite the disappointing results under Hinkley, Alberton kept up a facade of optimism. Said Power CEO Keith Thomas last August, “…there are a lot of things we can point to that we are positioning ourselves well for finals success over the next few years”.
Thomas is on track to being proven correct.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
The Lions have been in this position before. Last year, the Queenslanders were a consistent top-four threat, eventually placing second. That was all she wrote for them though, as they flopped in the finals.
Both of these teams are playing at home this weekend, against teams in form. Port face St Kilda – a side quickly becoming a thorn in the side of contenders this year. Brisbane face the Demons at the Gabba.
These are otherwise routine games they must win. If either unexpectedly loses, expect doubts to arise about the pedigree of their premiership hopes. Port, in particular, will lose their one-game buffer at the top of the ladder, a buffer that has secured them top spot since March.
Hinkley’s side additionally has to combat their tendency to drop games they should otherwise win. Their upset loss to North Melbourne in Round 22 last year – which ensured finals would remain out of their grasp – is an example of such complacency.
Brisbane and Port share the top eight with other strong contenders – Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast, the Bulldogs and Geelong – though none are yet to stamp themselves as genuine premiership threats.
Port and Brisbane have played just one of the other sides: West Coast (they both defeated the West Australians).
This weekend is the final chance for the duo to bank wins against lower-ranked teams. Their opponents in the packed upcoming weeks on the fixture include several of those top-eight sides. Port face the Cats, the Tigers and the Dogs. Brisbane meet the latter two, and also have a game against Essendon.
Any doubts Port and the Lions’ premiership viability will either be reaffirmed or dispelled in this stretch.
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic stands to benefit both teams.
(Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
The Power’s record in the Queensland hub was the strongest of any visiting team. They’re expected to remain in Adelaide, bar two games in Queensland, for an extended period of time. This will gift them a considerable home ground advantage.
Brisbane are not as good interstate this year – they’ve only won one of three games they’ve played outside Queensland – but have won every game within their borders. Like Port, they have an extended run of home-state clashes coming up.
Injuries may yet play a part. For the Lions, Thursday’s devastating news that first-choice ruckman Stefan Martin will miss at least two months is a significant blow. His replacement, Archie Smith, suddenly finds himself in the role of providing good service to the Lions’ mercurial midfield unit.
The South Australians, in contrast, have been fortunate to be largely unscathed by injury this season. They’re among the least afflicted teams when it comes to injury and are the healthiest contender.
Ken Hinkley and Chris Fagan have to navigate this weekend’s clashes to solidify their squad’s premiership credentials because Port and Brisbane have competitors to this claim.
But none have had early form-line that both Port and Brisbane share.
None – with the exception of the Eagles – have the inherent advantages of being at home for much of the rest of the season.
None currently have Port’s striking advantage on top of the ladder, with a percentage that dwarfs their opponents.
Port Adelaide and Brisbane are far from guaranteed premiers. But the seeds have successfully been planted for both clubs to seize advantage of the competition.
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