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Opinion

Poorly predicting State of Origin Game 1

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Roar Rookie
3rd November, 2020
6

We all know that teams are more than a collection of individuals, especially when it comes to the greatest rivalry in Australian sport. It would be the height of stupidity to surmise the winner by comparing each position.

So let’s do it!

Fullback: James Tedesco vs AJ Brimson
Winner: Tedesco

Unless Queensland have 2015 Billy Slater defrosting in the change room, this was always going to be highlighted blue.

Brimson is a great young player with dangerous speed and multiple dimensions to his attack, but the NRL’s best fullback wears blue and if he is anywhere near his best, Tedesco will be up for man of the match.

Wing: Daniel Tupou vs Xavier Coates
Winner: Tupou

This was a close one between two high flyers.

I’m not a fan of the Tupou selection, despite being one of the best try-scorers in the comp, he showed little to no passion for NSW in his 2015 debut.

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Coates is one of the best aerial attacks in the comp and is always a try-scoring opportunity with the ball in the air. Despite the negatives, I expect Tupou to do his job and be a key component in attack.

Centre: Clint Gutherson vs Brenko Lee
Winner: Lee

Look, did I highlight Brenko Lee just because it was one of the few players I could argue over their NSW counterpart? Yes, but hear me out.

Of course, Gutho is the better player and he will be great, but how he will perform in the centres is unknown.

Lee on the other hand just won the premiership as Melbourne’s right centre. We know what Brenko Lee is, we don’t know what King Gutho will be.

Centre: Jack Wighton vs Dane Gagai
Winner: Wighton

Another tight one, but Wighton takes the cake.

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Gagai’s great play usually elevates again during Origin, however he’s fallen off slightly defensively and is better suited on the wing.

Wighton was great last year and is a big, strong runner who can kick like a Dally M-wining five-eighth.

Jack Wighton

Jack Wighton for the Raiders (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Wing: Josh Addo-Carr vs Phillip Sami
Winner: Addo-Carr

The Fox is the best winger in the NRL, it’s that simple.

Sami has had a great season, scoring seven tries in 13 games and is one of few players who can catch the Fox, but he isn’t Addo-Carr.

Five-eighth: Luke Keary vs Cameron Munster
Winner: Munster

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If I was going to sign one five-eighth in the league, it would be Munster or Wighton.

While Keary has the superior kicking game, he is a defensive liability. Munster can’t lead a pack around like Keary can, but he doesn’t have to with Daly Cherry-Evans next to him. Munster is the more complete player.

Halfback: Nathan Cleary vs Daly Cherry-Evans
Winner: Cleary

At his best, Cherry-Evans can be the best half in the game, but this season he failed to grab the hand of a of a Manly team that was drowning. While the Sea Eagles’ sub-par season doesn’t rest solely on his shoulders, DCE was far from his best.

The opposite can be said for Cleary. Leading the minor premiers to 17 straight wins and a grand final appearance, Cleary had a spectacular season, ending as the Dally M Halfback of the Year.

While DCE does reach another level playing for his state, I can’t go past Cleary.

Nathan Cleary

Nathan Cleary of the Blues (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

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Prop: Daniel Saifiti vs Christian Welch
Winner: Welch

A strong argument could be made for Saifiti, but having not having seen him for six weeks and with Welch’s grand final performance, the latter had to be the choice.

Both will get their jobs done, though Welch will play more minutes while Saifiti will be expected to play faster in a shorter stint. Welch is a great player and I expect him to be a stand out.

Hooker: Damian Cook vs Jake Friend
Winner: Cook

Queensland should have selected Harry Grant. They’ve chosen a young team they can develop for the future while competing and Friend’s selection doesn’t seem to fit. Having said that, Friend will make about 60 tackles and give the maroon jumper he’s wanted for so long his all.

However, Cook is one of the NRL’s best players and has the ability to break a game open when it seems like nothing is happening. Cook adds another leg to the NSW attack that Queensland don’t have.

Prop: Junior Paulo vs Josh Papalii
Winner: Papalii

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Josh Papalii is the best prop in the game. Simple as that. He has the ability to break open a match with an incredible run and offload, while his consistency and effort through his hit-ups makes him stand out. He just does not stop.

It is not a reflection on Paulo that this was such a clear-cut choice, he is coming off a great year. He was 13th in run metres, behind only three other forwards, first in offloads, and one of Parramatta’s best in all 22 games he played.

He just isn’t Papalii.


Second row: Boyd Cordner vs Felise Kaufusi
Winner: Kaufusi

I wouldn’t have picked Cordner if he wasn’t captain.

Whether it be due to his repeat concussions or wear and tear from a great career, Cordner just wasn’t the same this season, often looking tired. Despite this, he will give everything, taking all the tough runs and putting his body on the line, all while being a try-scoring danger near the line.

Kaufusi, on the other hand, looks as fresh in the first as he does in the 80th. Everything you want from a second rower is what you will get from him.

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Felise Kaufusi

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Second row: Tyson Frizell vs Coen Hess
Winner: Frizell

This could be Frizell vs Gorden Tallis or Steve Menzies and I’d pick Frizell. I love him.

One of the best ball runners in the NRL, Frizell has been exceptional every Origin game he’s played. Always a danger for the defence close to the line, Frizell has more than earnt his selection.

For a game here and there, Hess has looked like he could be anything. A big body with a damaging run, he will make it tough for the Blues halves in defence if he is on his game, but it’s a big if.

That if doesn’t exist with Friz.


Lock: Jake Trbojevic vs Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Winner: Trbojevic

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When I mention players getting the job done, no player is more reliable than Trbojevic. He would do anything asked of him.

One of the best defenders in the comp and able to give 80 minutes, Trbojevic makes 45 tackles and misses none. A below par (by the standard he has set) regular season doesn’t effect my view of him at all and I would bet he was one of the first picked.

Fa’asuamaleaui is a great young prospect and has looked good in his 40 minutes per game. Averaging 23 tackles and 135 metres in those 40 minutes, Fa’asuamaleaui is a star of future and if they are to win, he will be key.

14: Cody Walker vs Ben Hunt
Winner: Walker

Walker brings more of an impact with his ball running and pace.

15: Payne Haas vs Lindsay Collins
Winner: Haas

While Collins will do his job and will bring a strong impact in what will be a tired team, Haas is the better player.

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16: Cameron Murray vs Jai Arrow
Winner: Murray


A tough call, but in the position they are in off the bench, Murray’s speed and ball-playing will either break open a tight game against a tiring Queensland or give the tiring Blues the spark they need.

17: Angus Crichton vs Jaydn Su’A
Winner: Chrichton

The speed and footwork Crichton provides off the bench slightly outweighs the spark Su’A’s hard runs and strong tackles will provide. This battle depends on the position the teams are in when they come on. It could go either way.

That seals it. With a score of 12-5, Game 1 goes to the Blues.

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