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Opinion
Well, what a week. Congrats to those who found Twilight Payment. It was an excellent win and potentially a new model (lead at even rate) for future raiders?
Today marks the carnival finale. It looks like a good day at Flemington. Class with prevail somewhat. The Rosehill meeting has been decimated by scratchings, leaving us working through what’s left to find some winnners.
I’ll do my best. I’m using 22 units today across both meetings – a new record. Most of my advantage over the house is on the line.
Dixie’s 2020 tally
Units bet: 443
Units won: 472.10
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 1 – 6 Miyake (two units)
This horse was scratched when he rated on top last time. He’s in well and should like 2400 metres.
Race 2
No bet in the Highway.
Race 3 – 2 Dancing Gidget (one unit)
This horse is another Chris Waller runner well placed with the apprentice claim (a theme today). This horse has positive stats at the track and the distance and will handle conditions.
Race 4 – 15 Proven Class (one unit)
Proven Class is really good value off her Highway win. I will have a dabble.
Race 5 – 13 Accountability (one unit)
This one is my speculator of the day. Waller has used an apprentice claim very well and the horse is getting to its right distance range.
Race 6
No bet. I am interested in seeing how Head of State goes.
Race 7 – 5 Irithea (one unit)
This horse has great second-up and 1400 metre stats. This horse prefers dry conditions but is around the mark in a field decimated by scratchings.
Race 8 – 1 Frosty Rocks (two units)
Frosty’s trialled well and is normally very competitive in this type of grade. This horse should get a softish lead.
Race 9 – 8 Misteed (one unit)
This is last-chance time for Misteed. This horse has class on these and the soft surface is good. The quick back-up is always a tick.
Race 1 – 10 Kissinger (two units)
This horse is a nice stayer who pumped them in the country last time, drops weight into this and should go well at 2000 metres.
Race 2
I am leaving this race alone with limited exposed form.
Race 3 – 8 Morvada (one unit)
This is a tricky race. Morvada is always around the mark and the good track (all seven wins are on firm) puts him in the mix.
Race 4 – 7 Power Scheme (one unit)
This race is a toss-up with Right You Are. I am taking Power Scheme with runs under his belt this prep and at the better price.
Race 5 – 2 Pondus (four units)
I’ve made Pondus my best of the day. He was great in his first Australian run. I’m tipping that he has a bit on the rest of these.
Race 6 – 2 Nature Strip (one unit)
The straight six can help Nature Strip find his best again. His Sydney stuff was disappointing but he’s a good price here. If Libertini turns up, look out. Bivouac is a huge threat. Hey Doc? Great go.
Race 7 – 13 Chaillot (two units)
Chaillot was great in stronger class last week, looks right for the extra trip here and could be very good.
Race 8 – 8 Melody Belle (one unit)
This is another very good race. Melody Belle didn’t fire in Sydney but has been great thereafter in NZ. She is a top-liner.
Race 9 – Llessur (one unit)
This is a spicy way to end the carnival. Llessur has two country wins this prep, is running well and has drawn nicely on the outside fence.
It is a big day. Good luck all. Keep me posted on your thoughts in the big ones. I hope the carnival’s been a winner for you.
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